Rockets vs. Pistons Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Rockets vs. Pistons NBA game on January 23, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Rockets
111
104
Little Caesars Arena
Pistons
Little Caesars Arena
TEAM1234T
Rockets
28 24 34 25 111
Pistons
20 32 22 30 104
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Rockets
    >99%
  • Pistons
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Rockets
28 24 34 25 111
Pistons
20 32 22 30 104
Q4 00:21 Duncan Robinson misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:04 Reed Sheppard makes two point driving layup
Q4 2:20 Jalen Duren misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:43 Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
Q4 4:53 Pistons misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:39 Pistons makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:14 Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
Q4 6:33 Ronald Holland II misses three point jump shot
Q4 6:52 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 7:09 Pistons misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:19
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  2. Q4 00:19
    Rockets defensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:21
    Duncan Robinson misses three point jump shot
  4. Q4 00:28
    Isaiah Stewart personal foul
  5. Q4 00:28
    Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  6. Q4 00:28
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson, Daniss Jenkins)
  7. Q4 00:28
    Rockets offensive rebound
  8. Q4 00:33
    Duncan Robinson misses regular free throw 3 of 3
  9. Q4 00:33
    +1
    Duncan Robinson makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    111-104
  10. Q4 00:33
    +1
    Duncan Robinson makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    111-104
  11. Q4 00:33
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard)
  12. Q4 00:42
    Cade Cunningham personal foul (Jae'Sean Tate draws the foul)
  13. Q4 00:42
    +1
    Jae'Sean Tate makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    111-104
  14. Q4 00:48
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  15. Q4 00:57
    Kevin Durant shooting foul (Tobias Harris draws the foul)
  16. Q4 00:57
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  17. Q4 00:57
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate)
  18. Q4 00:57
    Pistons offensive rebound
  19. Q4 00:57
    Tobias Harris misses regular free throw 1 of 3
  20. Q4 00:57
    +1
    Tobias Harris makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    111-104
  21. Q4 00:57
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Javonte Green, Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson)
  22. Q4 00:57
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Javonte Green, Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson)
  23. Q4 1:04
    Pistons personal foul
  24. Q4 1:04
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  25. Q4 1:04
    Pistons 60 second timeout
  26. Q4 1:04
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
  27. Q4 1:05
    Alperen Sengun turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  28. Q4 1:13
    Cade Cunningham personal foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
  29. Q4 1:13
    Cade Cunningham turnover
  30. Q4 1:13
    Cade Cunningham turnover
  31. Q4 1:14
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  32. Q4 1:14
    Pistons lineup change (Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, Daniss Jenkins)
  33. Q4 1:14
    Pistons lineup change (Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, Daniss Jenkins)
  34. Q4 1:25
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  35. Q4 1:33
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  36. Q4 1:57
    Pistons personal foul
  37. Q4 1:57
    Duncan Robinson turnover (offensive foul)
  38. Q4 2:04
    +2
    Reed Sheppard makes two point driving layup
    107-97
  39. Q4 2:20
    Jalen Duren misses two point jump shot
  40. Q4 2:43
    +2
    Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
    107-97
  41. Q4 3:02
    Jalen Duren personal foul
  42. Q4 3:02
    Instant replay
  43. Q4 3:02
    Pistons 60 second timeout
  44. Q4 3:02
    Jalen Duren turnover (offensive foul)
  45. Q4 3:05
    +1
    Jalen Duren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    107-97
  46. Q4 3:12
    Rockets turnover
  47. Q4 4:00
    Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
  48. Q4 4:44
    Rockets turnover
  49. Q4 4:53
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  50. Q4 5:18
    Pistons 60 second timeout
  51. Q4 5:39
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    101-95
  52. Q4 5:45
    Rockets turnover
  53. Q4 5:50
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  54. Q4 6:14
    +2
    Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
    101-95
  55. Q4 6:33
    Ronald Holland II misses three point jump shot
  56. Q4 6:52
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    101-95
  57. Q4 7:09
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  58. Q4 7:17
    Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound
  59. Q4 7:20
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  60. Q4 7:25
    Isaiah Stewart personal foul
  61. Q4 7:54
    Cade Cunningham blocks Amen Thompson's two point layup
  62. Q4 8:17
    Ronald Holland II misses three point jump shot
  63. Q4 8:26
    Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul (Loose ball) (Ronald Holland II draws the foul)
  64. Q4 8:26
    Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul
  65. Q4 8:26
    Jabari Smith Jr. turnover
  66. Q4 8:34
    +3
    Pistons makes three point jump shot
    101-95
  67. Q4 9:23
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  68. Q4 9:26
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  69. Q4 9:33
    Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound
  70. Q4 9:35
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
  71. Q4 9:35
    Ronald Holland II turnover (lost ball)
  72. Q4 9:58
    Cade Cunningham turnover (lost ball) (Amen Thompson steals)
  73. Q4 10:20
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    87-76
  74. Q4 10:22
    Rockets personal foul
  75. Q4 10:22
    +1
    Isaiah Stewart makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    107-97
  76. Q4 11:05
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
  77. Q4 11:05
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  78. Q4 11:06
    Pistons offensive rebound
  79. Q4 11:07
    Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
  80. Q4 11:08
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  81. Q4 11:29
    +1
    Cade Cunningham makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    94-89
  82. Q4 11:36
    Rockets personal foul
  83. Q4 11:36
    Jae'Sean Tate turnover (offensive foul)
  84. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  85. Q3 00:02
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  86. Q3 00:12
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  87. Q3 00:12
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
  88. Q3 00:42
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  89. Q3 00:44
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  90. Q3 1:00
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    86-72
  91. Q3 1:18
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    86-72
  92. Q3 1:30
    Pistons 60 second timeout
  93. Q3 2:22
    +2
    Amen Thompson makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
    86-72
  94. Q3 2:40
    +3
    Daniss Jenkins makes three point jump shot
    68-62
  95. Q3 3:12
    +2
    Javonte Green makes two point running layup (Ronald Holland II assists)
    86-72
  96. Q3 3:18
    Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
  97. Q3 3:31
    Jaden Ivey personal foul (Reed Sheppard draws the foul)
  98. Q3 3:31
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela)
  99. Q3 3:51
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela)
  100. Q3 4:06
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    81-70
  101. Q3 4:27
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  102. Q3 4:44
    Pistons turnover
  103. Q3 4:56
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Ronald Holland II, Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Jalen Duren)
  104. Q3 4:57
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    68-62
  105. Q3 5:11
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  106. Q3 5:18
    Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
  107. Q3 5:28
    Tobias Harris defensive rebound
  108. Q3 5:29
    Jae'Sean Tate misses two point jump shot
  109. Q3 5:38
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  110. Q3 5:53
    Pistons defensive rebound
  111. Q3 5:55
    Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
  112. Q3 6:14
    Tobias Harris personal foul
  113. Q3 6:35
    +1
    Jalen Duren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    65-62
  114. Q3 7:03
    Ausar Thompson personal foul (Amen Thompson draws the foul)
  115. Q3 7:03
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate)
  116. Q3 7:05
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  117. Q3 7:13
    +3
    Kevin Durant makes three point pullup jump shot
    65-60
  118. Q3 7:22
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  119. Q3 7:27
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  120. Q3 7:40
    Pistons offensive rebound
  121. Q3 7:44
    Rockets turnover
  122. Q3 7:56
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    65-62
  123. Q3 8:13
    Tobias Harris personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
  124. Q3 8:13
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    65-62
  125. Q3 8:43
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    59-60
  126. Q3 8:45
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  127. Q3 9:42
    Pistons personal foul
  128. Q3 9:56
    Jalen Duren defensive rebound
  129. Q3 9:57
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  130. Q3 10:12
    Pistons personal foul
  131. Q3 10:25
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  132. Q3 10:25
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  133. Q3 10:38
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  134. Q3 10:41
    Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
  135. Q3 11:21
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    53-54
  136. Q3 11:38
    Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
  137. Q3 11:41
    Ausar Thompson personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
  138. Q3 11:41
    Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  139. Q2 00:00
    Pistons offensive rebound
  140. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  141. Q3 12:00
    Pistons lineup change (Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Jalen Duren)
  142. Q2 00:07
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    51-52
  143. Q2 00:07
    Pistons lineup change (Jaden Ivey, Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson, Jalen Duren, Daniss Jenkins)
  144. Q2 00:11
    Pistons turnover
  145. Q2 00:21
    Jalen Duren offensive rebound
  146. Q2 00:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  147. Q2 00:21
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
  148. Q2 00:32
    Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
  149. Q2 00:54
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    50-52
  150. Q2 1:28
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    47-50
  151. Q2 1:52
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  152. Q2 2:28
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    46-46
  153. Q2 2:41
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  154. Q2 2:52
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  155. Q2 3:01
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    44-46
  156. Q2 3:19
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    44-44
  157. Q2 3:34
    Rockets personal foul
  158. Q2 3:47
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    41-42
  159. Q2 3:54
    Rockets offensive rebound
  160. Q2 4:16
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  161. Q2 4:22
    Jalen Duren defensive rebound
  162. Q2 4:25
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  163. Q2 4:50
    Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
  164. Q2 4:50
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    39-40
  165. Q2 5:05
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  166. Q2 5:05
    Pistons lineup change (Javonte Green, Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Jalen Duren)
  167. Q2 5:17
    Javonte Green defensive rebound
  168. Q2 5:22
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  169. Q2 5:40
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    37-39
  170. Q2 5:40
    Rockets personal foul
  171. Q2 5:40
    +1
    Isaiah Stewart makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    37-40
  172. Q2 5:53
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    37-37
  173. Q2 6:00
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Ronald Holland II, Javonte Green, Cade Cunningham, Daniss Jenkins)
  174. Q2 6:08
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  175. Q2 6:36
    Pistons personal foul
  176. Q2 6:36
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    35-35
  177. Q2 6:47
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  178. Q2 6:53
    Jaden Ivey defensive rebound
  179. Q2 7:15
    +3
    Pistons makes three point jump shot
    34-33
  180. Q2 7:27
    Ronald Holland II offensive rebound
  181. Q2 7:30
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  182. Q2 7:41
    Pistons personal foul
  183. Q2 7:54
    Javonte Green offensive rebound
  184. Q2 7:54
    Rockets personal foul
  185. Q2 7:54
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard)
  186. Q2 7:54
    Javonte Green misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  187. Q2 8:03
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  188. Q2 8:30
    Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
  189. Q2 8:34
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  190. Q2 8:51
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    33-28
  191. Q2 9:04
    Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
  192. Q2 9:11
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  193. Q2 9:29
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    33-26
  194. Q2 9:29
    Ronald Holland II misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  195. Q2 9:40
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  196. Q2 9:41
    Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound
  197. Q2 9:44
    Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound
  198. Q2 10:46
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    31-22
  199. Q2 10:56
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  200. Q2 11:16
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    31-20
  201. Q2 11:22
    Pistons turnover
  202. Q2 11:31
    Clint Capela offensive rebound
  203. Q1 00:00
    Rockets offensive rebound
  204. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  205. Q2 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela)
  206. Q1 00:03
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  207. Q1 00:10
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    28-20
  208. Q1 00:29
    Jaden Ivey offensive rebound
  209. Q1 00:29
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  210. Q1 00:50
    +1
    Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    24-20
  211. Q1 00:50
    +1
    Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    25-20
  212. Q1 1:01
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    22-20
  213. Q1 1:05
    Rockets turnover
  214. Q1 1:36
    Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
  215. Q1 1:37
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  216. Q1 2:11
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  217. Q1 2:13
    Clint Capela offensive rebound
  218. Q1 2:16
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  219. Q1 2:38
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    20-16
  220. Q1 3:04
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  221. Q1 3:18
    Clint Capela misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  222. Q1 3:18
    Rockets offensive rebound
  223. Q1 3:18
    +1
    Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    18-14
  224. Q1 3:45
    Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound
  225. Q1 3:48
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  226. Q1 4:02
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  227. Q1 4:27
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Ronald Holland II, Jaden Ivey, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren)
  228. Q1 4:28
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    17-12
  229. Q1 4:51
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    15-12
  230. Q1 5:19
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  231. Q1 5:24
    Duncan Robinson defensive rebound
  232. Q1 5:40
    Jalen Duren defensive rebound
  233. Q1 5:57
    Pistons lineup change (Isaiah Stewart, Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Jalen Duren)
  234. Q1 6:15
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    11-10
  235. Q1 6:15
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    12-10
  236. Q1 6:30
    Pistons personal foul
  237. Q1 6:39
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate)
  238. Q1 7:01
    +2
    Pistons makes two point jump shot
    10-10
  239. Q1 7:16
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    10-8
  240. Q1 7:47
    Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
  241. Q1 7:51
    Pistons misses two point jump shot
  242. Q1 8:19
    Pistons offensive rebound
  243. Q1 8:19
    +1
    Duncan Robinson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    8-5
  244. Q1 8:26
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    8-4
  245. Q1 8:28
    Amen Thompson offensive rebound
  246. Q1 8:55
    Rockets turnover
  247. Q1 9:01
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  248. Q1 9:34
    Pistons personal foul
  249. Q1 9:41
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  250. Q1 9:57
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  251. Q1 10:03
    Pistons misses three point jump shot
  252. Q1 10:45
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    2-0
  253. Q1 10:55
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  254. Q1 11:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  255. Q1 11:16
    Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
  256. Q1 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
  257. Q1 12:00
    (Cade Cunningham gains possession)
Box Score
Rockets
PosPlayerPts
Pistons
PosPlayerPts

Rockets vs. Pistons: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Rockets vs. Pistons
  • Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Little Caesars Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Pistons favored at -4.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 217
  • Moneyline Odds: Rockets +158, Pistons -174

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Rockets: 34%
  • Pistons: 66%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Rockets 106-111 Pistons.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rockets a win probability of 34%, while the Pistons have a win probability of 66%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Pistons are more likely to beat the Rockets in the NBA game at Little Caesars Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Rockets vs. Pistons predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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