Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Bucks NBA game on January 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
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NBA
Thunder
122
102
Fiserv Forum
Bucks
Fiserv Forum
TEAM1234T
Thunder
38 45 5 0 122
Bucks
18 49 5 0 102
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Thunder
    >99%
  • Bucks
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Thunder
38 45 5 0 122
Bucks
18 49 5 0 102
Q4 00:41 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:15 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:42 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:54 Bucks makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:08 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:37 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:11 Bucks misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:55 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:21 Bucks makes three point jump shot
Q4 5:33 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:20
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:41
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  3. Q4 1:15
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  4. Q4 1:23
    Bucks turnover
  5. Q4 1:33
    Kenrich Williams turnover
  6. Q4 1:42
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  7. Q4 1:52
    Branden Carlson offensive rebound
  8. Q4 2:10
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  9. Q4 2:11
    Thunder defensive rebound
  10. Q4 2:28
    Thunder violation
  11. Q4 2:28
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
  12. Q4 2:28
    Bucks lineup change (Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Cole Anthony, Jericho Sims, Amir Coffey, Andre Jackson Jr.)
  13. Q4 2:54
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    88-72
  14. Q4 3:08
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  15. Q4 3:17
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
  16. Q4 3:37
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  17. Q4 3:50
    Bobby Portis defensive rebound
  18. Q4 4:11
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  19. Q4 4:55
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  20. Q4 4:55
    Bucks 60 second timeout
  21. Q4 4:55
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
  22. Q4 5:21
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    88-72
  23. Q4 5:33
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  24. Q4 6:28
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  25. Q4 6:32
    Pete Nance defensive rebound
  26. Q4 6:54
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  27. Q4 7:06
    Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
  28. Q4 7:13
    Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
  29. Q4 7:41
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  30. Q4 7:52
    Thunder turnover
  31. Q4 8:27
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  32. Q4 8:34
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  33. Q4 8:52
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
  34. Q4 9:02
    Bucks personal foul
  35. Q4 9:02
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins)
  36. Q4 9:09
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  37. Q4 9:38
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  38. Q4 10:07
    Thunder offensive rebound
  39. Q4 10:07
    Bucks personal foul
  40. Q4 10:49
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    88-72
  41. Q3 00:00
    Thunder offensive rebound
  42. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  43. Q4 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
  44. Q3 00:06
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  45. Q3 00:27
    Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
  46. Q3 00:31
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  47. Q3 00:46
    Cole Anthony offensive rebound
  48. Q3 00:46
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  49. Q3 1:05
    Bobby Portis offensive rebound
  50. Q3 1:05
    Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
  51. Q3 1:10
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  52. Q3 1:30
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  53. Q3 2:01
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  54. Q3 2:01
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    88-72
  55. Q3 2:32
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    88-72
  56. Q3 2:32
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    88-72
  57. Q3 2:36
    Bucks turnover
  58. Q3 2:36
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  59. Q3 2:36
    Bucks lineup change (Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma)
  60. Q3 2:36
    Bucks lineup change (Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma)
  61. Q3 2:36
    Thunder turnover
  62. Q3 2:36
    Bucks lineup change (Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma)
  63. Q3 2:43
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  64. Q3 3:23
    Andre Jackson Jr. misses three point jump shot
  65. Q3 3:33
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    88-72
  66. Q3 3:41
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  67. Q3 3:41
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  68. Q3 4:23
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
  69. Q3 4:23
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    87-69
  70. Q3 4:48
    AJ Green defensive rebound
  71. Q3 4:53
    Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
  72. Q3 5:01
    Ryan Rollins personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  73. Q3 5:01
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Andre Jackson Jr.)
  74. Q3 5:20
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  75. Q3 5:27
    Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
  76. Q3 5:43
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    86-67
  77. Q3 5:43
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  78. Q3 5:43
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    86-69
  79. Q3 5:50
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  80. Q3 5:59
    Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
  81. Q3 6:03
    Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
  82. Q3 6:19
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    83-67
  83. Q3 6:46
    Ryan Rollins turnover
  84. Q3 6:51
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  85. Q3 6:54
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  86. Q3 7:39
    +3
    AJ Green makes three point running jump shot (Bobby Portis assists)
    83-67
  87. Q3 7:48
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  88. Q3 7:58
    +2
    Kyle Kuzma makes two point jump shot
    79-61
  89. Q3 8:00
    Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
  90. Q3 8:03
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  91. Q3 8:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  92. Q3 8:41
    +2
    Luguentz Dort makes two point jump shot
    83-67
  93. Q3 8:58
    Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
  94. Q3 8:58
    Chet Holmgren misses two point tip layup
  95. Q3 9:03
    Chet Holmgren misses two point jump shot
  96. Q3 9:15
    Thunder offensive rebound
  97. Q3 9:15
    Instant replay
  98. Q3 9:15
    +1
    AJ Green makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    86-69
  99. Q3 9:15
    Cason Wallace misses flagrant free throw 1 of 2
  100. Q3 9:17
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  101. Q3 9:21
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  102. Q3 10:22
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving finger roll layup
    86-69
  103. Q3 10:36
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    83-67
  104. Q3 10:36
    Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  105. Q3 10:37
    Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
  106. Q3 10:46
    Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
  107. Q3 11:44
    Ajay Mitchell turnover
  108. Q2 00:00
    Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
  109. Q3 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
  110. Q2 00:00
    Bucks offensive rebound
  111. Q3 12:00
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma)
  112. Q2 00:07
    Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  113. Q2 00:07
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    83-67
  114. Q2 00:07
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma)
  115. Q2 00:07
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Chris Youngblood, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  116. Q2 00:16
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (out of bounds step)
  117. Q2 00:27
    Pete Nance turnover (bad pass) (Brooks Barnhizer steals)
  118. Q2 00:37
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    69-50
  119. Q2 1:06
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Brooks Barnhizer, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
  120. Q2 1:06
    Thunder personal foul
  121. Q2 1:11
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  122. Q2 1:15
    Cole Anthony shooting foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
  123. Q2 1:15
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    83-67
  124. Q2 1:32
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    69-50
  125. Q2 2:11
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    66-48
  126. Q2 2:11
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
  127. Q2 2:43
    Kenrich Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  128. Q2 2:43
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  129. Q2 2:43
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    83-67
  130. Q2 2:58
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    69-50
  131. Q2 3:02
    Ajay Mitchell turnover (bad pass) (Ryan Rollins steals)
  132. Q2 3:23
    +3
    Cole Anthony makes three point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
    69-50
  133. Q2 3:34
    Kenrich Williams misses two point jump shot
  134. Q2 3:46
    +3
    Bobby Portis makes three point jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
    69-50
  135. Q2 4:04
    Bucks personal foul
  136. Q2 4:04
    Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  137. Q2 4:12
    Bucks turnover
  138. Q2 4:18
    Bobby Portis defensive rebound
  139. Q2 4:29
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  140. Q2 4:33
    Pete Nance misses three point jump shot
  141. Q2 4:46
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    57-36
  142. Q2 4:46
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
  143. Q2 4:46
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
  144. Q2 4:46
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, Cole Anthony, Ryan Rollins)
  145. Q2 4:46
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins)
  146. Q2 5:06
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  147. Q2 5:16
    Ryan Rollins misses two point jump shot
  148. Q2 5:29
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    74-54
  149. Q2 6:02
    Chet Holmgren misses two point pullup jump shot
  150. Q2 6:21
    Thunder defensive rebound
  151. Q2 6:36
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  152. Q2 6:40
    Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
  153. Q2 7:00
    +2
    Luguentz Dort makes two point layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    52-34
  154. Q2 7:32
    +3
    Cole Anthony makes three point jump shot (Pete Nance assists)
    50-34
  155. Q2 7:32
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  156. Q2 7:40
    Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
  157. Q2 8:19
    +3
    Kenrich Williams makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    50-31
  158. Q2 8:36
    +3
    Ryan Rollins makes three point jump shot (Cole Anthony assists)
    47-31
  159. Q2 9:00
    Ryan Rollins misses three point jump shot
  160. Q2 9:13
    Bucks defensive rebound
  161. Q2 9:14
    Branden Carlson misses three point jump shot
  162. Q2 9:27
    +2
    Kyle Kuzma makes two point cutting layup (Cole Anthony assists)
    45-28
  163. Q2 9:44
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  164. Q2 9:48
    Kyle Kuzma misses three point running jump shot
  165. Q2 10:23
    +3
    Cole Anthony makes three point jump shot (Bobby Portis assists)
    43-26
  166. Q2 10:44
    +3
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point stepback jump shot
    43-23
  167. Q2 11:09
    Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Bobby Portis draws the foul)
  168. Q2 11:09
    +2
    Bobby Portis makes two point running layup
    40-22
  169. Q2 11:25
    +2
    Pete Nance makes two point tip layup
    40-20
  170. Q2 11:28
    Cole Anthony misses two point pullup jump shot
  171. Q2 11:47
    +2
    Branden Carlson makes two point alley-oop layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    40-18
  172. Q1 00:00
    Kyle Kuzma shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  173. Q1 00:00
    Thunder offensive rebound
  174. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  175. Q1 00:04
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  176. Q1 00:22
    Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
  177. Q1 00:42
    +3
    Pete Nance makes three point jump shot (Gary Trent Jr. assists)
    35-18
  178. Q1 1:03
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  179. Q1 1:17
    +2
    Isaiah Joe makes two point pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    33-15
  180. Q1 1:30
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  181. Q1 1:30
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
  182. Q1 1:39
    +3
    Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Branden Carlson assists)
    31-15
  183. Q1 2:13
    Bobby Portis defensive rebound
  184. Q1 2:31
    +2
    Cole Anthony makes two point fadeaway jump shot
    28-13
  185. Q1 3:09
    +3
    Pete Nance makes three point jump shot (Gary Harris assists)
    26-11
  186. Q1 3:09
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  187. Q1 3:20
    +3
    Ajay Mitchell makes three point stepback jump shot
    26-8
  188. Q1 3:55
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point running layup
    23-6
  189. Q1 4:03
    AJ Green misses three point jump shot
  190. Q1 4:27
    Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
  191. Q1 4:43
    Jump ball. Cason Wallace vs. Cole Anthony (Isaiah Joe gains possession)
  192. Q1 4:46
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
  193. Q1 4:53
    Chet Holmgren misses three point running jump shot
  194. Q1 5:17
    +3
    Ajay Mitchell makes three point jump shot (Luguentz Dort assists)
    21-6
  195. Q1 5:40
    Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive foul (Charge) (Isaiah Joe draws the foul)
  196. Q1 5:46
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  197. Q1 6:11
    Ryan Rollins turnover (bad pass) (Luguentz Dort steals)
  198. Q1 6:14
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  199. Q1 6:51
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  200. Q1 6:57
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  201. Q1 7:11
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  202. Q1 7:22
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point cutting layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    16-6
  203. Q1 7:39
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  204. Q1 7:56
    +2
    Luguentz Dort makes two point pullup jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)
    14-6
  205. Q1 8:19
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    12-6
  206. Q1 8:19
    Luguentz Dort shooting foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
  207. Q1 8:31
    Cason Wallace misses three point jump shot
  208. Q1 8:51
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point running finger roll layup
    12-5
  209. Q1 9:07
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  210. Q1 9:21
    +2
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point driving finger roll layup
    10-5
  211. Q1 9:48
    +3
    Gary Harris makes three point jump shot (AJ Green assists)
    7-3
  212. Q1 10:17
    AJ Green turnover (offensive foul)
  213. Q1 10:28
    Bucks 60 second timeout
  214. Q1 10:33
    Ryan Rollins turnover (bad pass) (Ajay Mitchell steals)
  215. Q1 10:53
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  216. Q1 11:09
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  217. Q1 11:33
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  218. Q1 12:00
    Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Gary Harris)
  219. Q1 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Box Score
Thunder
PosPlayerPts
Bucks
PosPlayerPts

Thunder vs. Bucks: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Thunder vs. Bucks
  • Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -12
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Thunder -550, Bucks +500

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Thunder: 81%
  • Bucks: 19%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 117-106 Bucks.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 81%, while the Bucks have a win probability of 19%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Bucks in the NBA game at Fiserv Forum on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Thunder vs. Bucks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.