Heat vs. Kings Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Kings NBA game on January 20, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
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NBA
Heat
130
117
Golden 1 Center
Kings
Golden 1 Center
TEAM1234T
Heat
32 23 58 17 130
Kings
25 21 53 18 117
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Heat
    >99%
  • Kings
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Heat
32 23 58 17 130
Kings
25 21 53 18 117
Q4 00:29 Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point pullup jump shot
Q4 00:43 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:04 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:28 Kings misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:31 Kings misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:57 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:03 Nikola Jovic misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:43 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:58 Kings makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:15 Kings makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:29
    +2
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point pullup jump shot
    130-114
  3. Q4 00:43
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  4. Q4 1:04
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    128-112
  5. Q4 1:24
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    125-112
  6. Q4 1:24
    DeMar DeRozan personal foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
  7. Q4 1:24
    Heat offensive rebound
  8. Q4 1:28
    Kings misses two point jump shot
  9. Q4 1:44
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  10. Q4 2:13
    Kings lineup change (DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk, Dylan Cardwell, Zach LaVine, Russell Westbrook)
  11. Q4 2:27
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  12. Q4 2:31
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  13. Q4 2:36
    DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
  14. Q4 2:45
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  15. Q4 2:57
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    124-112
  16. Q4 2:57
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
  17. Q4 3:03
    Nikola Jovic misses two point jump shot
  18. Q4 3:35
    Kings turnover
  19. Q4 3:35
    Instant replay
  20. Q4 3:40
    Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
  21. Q4 3:43
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  22. Q4 3:58
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    124-112
  23. Q4 4:05
    Kings personal foul
  24. Q4 4:15
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    124-112
  25. Q4 4:38
    Kings turnover
  26. Q4 4:40
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  27. Q4 5:15
    DeMar DeRozan turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  28. Q4 5:19
    Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
  29. Q4 5:25
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  30. Q4 5:34
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    124-112
  31. Q4 6:08
    Heat 60 second timeout
  32. Q4 6:08
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic)
  33. Q4 6:13
    Nique Clifford offensive rebound
  34. Q4 6:18
    DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
  35. Q4 6:26
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  36. Q4 7:13
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    113-99
  37. Q4 7:26
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  38. Q4 7:39
    Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
  39. Q4 8:07
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  40. Q4 8:08
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    113-99
  41. Q4 8:31
    Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  42. Q4 8:31
    Heat offensive rebound
  43. Q4 8:31
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    113-99
  44. Q4 8:49
    +3
    Malik Monk makes three point jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)
    113-99
  45. Q4 8:51
    Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
  46. Q4 9:30
    Kings misses two point jump shot
  47. Q4 9:49
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  48. Q4 9:54
    Kings turnover
  49. Q4 9:59
    Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
  50. Q4 10:03
    Pelle Larsson misses two point jump shot
  51. Q4 10:28
    Kings personal foul
  52. Q4 10:28
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    100-89
  53. Q4 10:28
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Myron Gardner)
  54. Q4 10:38
    Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
  55. Q4 10:48
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  56. Q4 11:02
    Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
  57. Q4 11:18
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  58. Q4 11:22
    Malik Monk misses three point jump shot
  59. Q4 11:33
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  60. Q4 11:33
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
  61. Q4 11:40
    Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
  62. Q4 11:44
    Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
  63. Q3 00:01
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  64. Q3 00:05
    DeMar DeRozan misses three point jump shot
  65. Q3 00:27
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  66. Q3 00:41
    Kasparas Jakucionis shooting foul (DeMar DeRozan draws the foul)
  67. Q3 00:41
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    100-89
  68. Q3 1:17
    +1
    Malik Monk makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    110-96
  69. Q3 1:17
    +1
    Malik Monk makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    110-96
  70. Q3 1:53
    Dennis Schroder personal foul
  71. Q3 1:53
    Dennis Schroder turnover (offensive foul)
  72. Q3 2:17
    Heat personal foul
  73. Q3 2:17
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    100-89
  74. Q3 2:17
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-91
  75. Q3 2:27
    Kasparas Jakucionis misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  76. Q3 2:42
    Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound
  77. Q3 2:56
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    92-76
  78. Q3 3:07
    Dennis Schroder misses two point jump shot
  79. Q3 3:14
    Nikola Jovic misses two point jump shot
  80. Q3 3:31
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  81. Q3 3:35
    Domantas Sabonis misses two point jump shot
  82. Q3 3:59
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  83. Q3 4:15
    Kings lineup change (Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis, Dylan Cardwell, Nique Clifford, Dennis Schroder)
  84. Q3 4:16
    Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
  85. Q3 4:32
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  86. Q3 4:45
    +2
    Norman Powell makes two point jump shot
    92-76
  87. Q3 5:01
    Andrew Wiggins misses three point jump shot
  88. Q3 5:41
    Kings lineup change (Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis, Precious Achiuwa, Nique Clifford, Russell Westbrook)
  89. Q3 5:41
    +1
    Precious Achiuwa makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    92-76
  90. Q3 6:01
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  91. Q3 6:14
    +2
    Norman Powell makes two point layup
    92-76
  92. Q3 6:26
    Kings misses two point jump shot
  93. Q3 6:39
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  94. Q3 6:42
    Kings misses two point jump shot
  95. Q3 7:03
    +2
    Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
    92-76
  96. Q3 7:16
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  97. Q3 7:18
    Russell Westbrook misses three point jump shot
  98. Q3 7:28
    Kings 60 second timeout
  99. Q3 7:28
    Heat personal foul
  100. Q3 7:29
    +3
    Bam Adebayo makes three point jump shot
    82-74
  101. Q3 7:44
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    82-74
  102. Q3 8:14
    Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
  103. Q3 8:55
    Pelle Larsson shooting foul (DeMar DeRozan draws the foul)
  104. Q3 8:55
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    82-74
  105. Q3 8:55
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell)
  106. Q3 8:59
    Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
  107. Q3 9:13
    Heat personal foul
  108. Q3 9:23
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  109. Q3 9:30
    Heat turnover
  110. Q3 10:02
    Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
  111. Q3 10:34
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  112. Q3 10:43
    +2
    Precious Achiuwa makes two point running layup
    82-74
  113. Q3 10:50
    Heat turnover
  114. Q3 11:07
    Heat personal foul
  115. Q3 11:07
    Heat 60 second timeout
  116. Q3 11:07
    Instant replay
  117. Q3 11:07
    Precious Achiuwa misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  118. Q3 11:07
    Precious Achiuwa misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  119. Q3 11:07
    Precious Achiuwa turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  120. Q3 11:59
    Heat offensive rebound
  121. Q2 00:00
    Malik Monk misses three point jump shot
  122. Q2 00:00
    Kings offensive rebound
  123. Q3 12:00
    Kings lineup change (DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Zach LaVine, Maxime Raynaud, Russell Westbrook)
  124. Q2 00:29
    Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
  125. Q2 00:58
    +1
    Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    55-46
  126. Q2 1:25
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    55-46
  127. Q2 1:44
    Pelle Larsson shooting foul (Russell Westbrook draws the foul)
  128. Q2 1:44
    Kings offensive rebound
  129. Q2 1:44
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell)
  130. Q2 1:53
    +2
    Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
    55-46
  131. Q2 2:11
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  132. Q2 2:37
    +3
    Kings makes three point jump shot
    55-46
  133. Q2 2:51
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  134. Q2 2:52
    Domantas Sabonis personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
  135. Q2 2:52
    Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  136. Q2 3:02
    +2
    Maxime Raynaud makes two point driving dunk (Zach LaVine assists)
    55-46
  137. Q2 3:34
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving floating jump shot
  138. Q2 3:47
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    55-46
  139. Q2 3:47
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
  140. Q2 4:03
    +3
    Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Norman Powell assists)
    55-46
  141. Q2 4:13
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  142. Q2 4:16
    Domantas Sabonis misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  143. Q2 4:32
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  144. Q2 4:45
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  145. Q2 4:54
    Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
  146. Q2 5:17
    Kings 60 second timeout
  147. Q2 5:17
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic)
  148. Q2 5:27
    Kings turnover
  149. Q2 5:48
    Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
  150. Q2 5:51
    Kings lineup change (DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Nique Clifford, Russell Westbrook)
  151. Q2 6:23
    Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
  152. Q2 6:26
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  153. Q2 6:35
    Kings personal foul
  154. Q2 6:35
    Kings personal foul
  155. Q2 6:35
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    52-44
  156. Q2 6:46
    Kings misses two point jump shot
  157. Q2 6:58
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    51-42
  158. Q2 7:14
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    49-42
  159. Q2 7:29
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    49-40
  160. Q2 7:35
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Myron Gardner)
  161. Q2 7:48
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    46-40
  162. Q2 8:19
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    43-38
  163. Q2 8:34
    Kings lineup change (DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk, Dylan Cardwell, Nique Clifford, Russell Westbrook)
  164. Q2 8:35
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    43-36
  165. Q2 8:42
    Kings misses two point jump shot
  166. Q2 9:07
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    40-36
  167. Q2 9:12
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Myron Gardner)
  168. Q2 9:24
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    38-36
  169. Q2 9:46
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  170. Q2 10:10
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    37-32
  171. Q2 10:25
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    35-32
  172. Q2 10:38
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    35-30
  173. Q2 10:56
    Dennis Schroder defensive rebound
  174. Q2 10:59
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  175. Q2 11:17
    Zach LaVine defensive rebound
  176. Q2 11:45
    Heat turnover
  177. Q2 11:50
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  178. Q2 11:59
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  179. Q1 00:00
    Instant replay
  180. Q2 12:00
    Kings lineup change (Malik Monk, Dylan Cardwell, Zach LaVine, Maxime Raynaud, Dennis Schroder)
  181. Q1 00:11
    Kings personal foul
  182. Q1 00:11
    Heat offensive rebound
  183. Q1 00:11
    Kings lineup change (Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Nique Clifford, Dennis Schroder)
  184. Q1 00:28
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  185. Q1 00:35
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  186. Q1 1:39
    Heat 60 second timeout
  187. Q1 1:39
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic)
  188. Q1 1:52
    Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
  189. Q1 1:57
    Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
  190. Q1 2:01
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  191. Q1 2:14
    Kings misses three point jump shot
  192. Q1 2:20
    Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
  193. Q1 2:28
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  194. Q1 2:57
    +2
    Kings makes two point jump shot
    23-18
  195. Q1 3:15
    Kings personal foul
  196. Q1 3:35
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  197. Q1 3:35
    Kings lineup change (Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis, Dylan Cardwell, Nique Clifford, Dennis Schroder)
  198. Q1 3:42
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    22-16
  199. Q1 3:53
    Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound
  200. Q1 3:57
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  201. Q1 4:01
    Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point jump shot
  202. Q1 4:01
    Simone Fontecchio misses two point putback layup
  203. Q1 4:18
    Precious Achiuwa turnover (offensive foul)
  204. Q1 4:18
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic)
  205. Q1 4:30
    Andrew Wiggins turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  206. Q1 4:59
    +3
    Norman Powell makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)
    19-11
  207. Q1 5:03
    Heat offensive rebound
  208. Q1 5:17
    +3
    Nique Clifford makes three point jump shot (Zach LaVine assists)
    16-11
  209. Q1 5:37
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  210. Q1 5:39
    DeMar DeRozan misses three point jump shot
  211. Q1 5:57
    +2
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point tip layup
    16-8
  212. Q1 6:10
    +2
    Russell Westbrook makes two point driving layup
    14-8
  213. Q1 6:20
    Norman Powell misses two point pullup jump shot
  214. Q1 6:47
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic)
  215. Q1 6:47
    +2
    Pelle Larsson makes two point running layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
    14-6
  216. Q1 6:48
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  217. Q1 7:17
    +2
    Bam Adebayo makes two point running dunk (Davion Mitchell assists)
    12-6
  218. Q1 7:26
    Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
  219. Q1 7:40
    +2
    Zach LaVine makes two point driving reverse layup
    10-6
  220. Q1 7:58
    Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
  221. Q1 8:23
    Norman Powell turnover (out of bounds step)
  222. Q1 8:39
    Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
  223. Q1 8:46
    Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
  224. Q1 8:53
    Kings offensive rebound
  225. Q1 8:53
    Maxime Raynaud misses two point hook shot
  226. Q1 9:22
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  227. Q1 9:41
    +3
    Norman Powell makes three point running pullup jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
    6-2
  228. Q1 9:47
    Zach LaVine misses two point turnaround jump shot
  229. Q1 10:04
    Russell Westbrook blocks Andrew Wiggins's two point layup
  230. Q1 10:17
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  231. Q1 10:28
    Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
  232. Q1 10:54
    +2
    Zach LaVine makes two point pullup jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)
    0-2
  233. Q1 11:17
    Davion Mitchell misses two point pullup jump shot
  234. Q1 11:25
    Russell Westbrook turnover (bad pass) (Andrew Wiggins steals)
  235. Q1 11:40
    Bam Adebayo misses two point layup
  236. Q1 12:00
    Kings lineup change (DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Zach LaVine, Maxime Raynaud, Russell Westbrook)
  237. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Heat
PosPlayerPts
Kings
PosPlayerPts

Heat vs. Kings: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Heat vs. Kings
  • Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Golden 1 Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Heat favored at -4.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 238.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Heat -167, Kings +152

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Heat: 67%
  • Kings: 33%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 120-115 Kings.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 67%, while the Kings have a win probability of 33%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Heat are more likely to beat the Kings in the NBA game at Golden 1 Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Heat vs. Kings predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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