Spurs vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Rockets NBA game on January 20, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
NBA
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
NBA sport icon
NBA
Spurs
106
111
Toyota Center
Rockets
Toyota Center
TEAM1234T
Spurs
39 31 22 14 106
Rockets
28 32 22 29 111
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Spurs
    <1%
  • Rockets
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Spurs
39 31 22 14 106
Rockets
28 32 22 29 111
Q4 00:01 Victor Wembanyama makes two point tip dunk
Q4 00:03 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:09 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:22 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:37 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:56 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:08 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:18 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:12 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:23 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:01
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point tip dunk
    106-111
  3. Q4 00:01
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:03
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  5. Q4 00:07
    Spurs personal foul
  6. Q4 00:09
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  7. Q4 00:12
    Spurs personal foul
  8. Q4 00:12
    Reed Sheppard misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  9. Q4 00:12
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  10. Q4 00:12
    +1
    Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-109
  11. Q4 00:12
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  12. Q4 00:18
    Spurs personal foul
  13. Q4 00:22
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  14. Q4 00:24
    Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
  15. Q4 00:37
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    104-108
  16. Q4 00:56
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  17. Q4 1:08
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  18. Q4 1:26
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  19. Q4 2:04
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  20. Q4 2:18
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  21. Q4 2:35
    Luke Kornet personal foul
  22. Q4 2:35
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  23. Q4 3:10
    Rockets personal foul
  24. Q4 3:32
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  25. Q4 4:10
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  26. Q4 4:10
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant)
  27. Q4 4:12
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    100-101
  28. Q4 4:23
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    100-99
  29. Q4 4:28
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  30. Q4 5:07
    Rockets defensive rebound
  31. Q4 5:07
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson)
  32. Q4 5:50
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    98-93
  33. Q4 6:23
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    96-93
  34. Q4 6:30
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  35. Q4 7:38
    Rockets personal foul
  36. Q4 7:38
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  37. Q4 7:50
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  38. Q4 7:53
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  39. Q4 7:55
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  40. Q4 8:17
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  41. Q4 8:42
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  42. Q4 8:43
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  43. Q4 8:43
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  44. Q4 9:14
    Rockets defensive rebound
  45. Q4 9:14
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
  46. Q4 9:17
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  47. Q4 9:32
    Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
  48. Q4 10:06
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  49. Q4 10:19
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  50. Q4 10:20
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    92-86
  51. Q4 10:55
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  52. Q4 11:07
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  53. Q4 11:08
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  54. Q4 11:15
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  55. Q4 11:33
    Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
  56. Q4 11:45
    Rockets personal foul
  57. Q4 11:46
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  58. Q3 00:00
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  59. Q3 00:00
    Spurs offensive rebound
  60. Q4 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
  61. Q3 00:17
    Tari Eason defensive rebound
  62. Q3 00:36
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    92-82
  63. Q3 00:42
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  64. Q3 00:49
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  65. Q3 1:09
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  66. Q3 1:32
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    92-80
  67. Q3 1:39
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  68. Q3 2:11
    +1
    Clint Capela makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    90-77
  69. Q3 2:11
    +1
    Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    90-78
  70. Q3 2:19
    Spurs turnover
  71. Q3 2:26
    Spurs defensive rebound
  72. Q3 2:48
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    90-76
  73. Q3 2:48
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
  74. Q3 2:57
    Rockets turnover
  75. Q3 3:13
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  76. Q3 3:20
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  77. Q3 3:20
    Rockets lineup change (Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  78. Q3 3:38
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  79. Q3 3:47
    Rockets offensive rebound
  80. Q3 4:26
    Spurs personal foul
  81. Q3 4:26
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    85-75
  82. Q3 4:26
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    85-76
  83. Q3 4:33
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  84. Q3 4:43
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  85. Q3 5:01
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  86. Q3 5:37
    Rockets defensive rebound
  87. Q3 5:37
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant)
  88. Q3 5:52
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  89. Q3 6:39
    Jump ball. (Julian Champagnie gains possession)
  90. Q3 6:42
    Rockets defensive rebound
  91. Q3 6:42
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
  92. Q3 6:45
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  93. Q3 7:04
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  94. Q3 7:04
    Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
  95. Q3 7:04
    +1
    Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    83-70
  96. Q3 7:04
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
  97. Q3 7:04
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  98. Q3 7:09
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  99. Q3 7:19
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  100. Q3 7:32
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  101. Q3 7:49
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    83-69
  102. Q3 8:06
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  103. Q3 8:29
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    80-67
  104. Q3 8:35
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  105. Q3 8:44
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  106. Q3 9:09
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  107. Q3 9:32
    Rockets turnover
  108. Q3 9:36
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  109. Q3 10:04
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    77-63
  110. Q3 10:10
    Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
  111. Q3 10:14
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  112. Q3 10:19
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  113. Q3 10:36
    Rockets personal foul
  114. Q3 10:48
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  115. Q3 11:36
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    73-60
  116. Q3 11:43
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  117. Q2 00:00
    Spurs offensive rebound
  118. Q3 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  119. Q2 00:07
    Spurs personal foul
  120. Q2 00:07
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    70-59
  121. Q2 00:07
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    70-60
  122. Q2 00:23
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  123. Q2 00:35
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    70-58
  124. Q2 00:41
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    70-55
  125. Q2 1:00
    Rockets turnover
  126. Q2 1:08
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  127. Q2 1:18
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  128. Q2 1:49
    Spurs personal foul
  129. Q2 1:49
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  130. Q2 1:49
    Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  131. Q2 2:01
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  132. Q2 2:11
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  133. Q2 2:29
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    68-54
  134. Q2 2:36
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  135. Q2 2:51
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  136. Q2 3:23
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    66-51
  137. Q2 3:33
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  138. Q2 3:34
    Amen Thompson misses two point tip dunk
  139. Q2 3:39
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  140. Q2 3:58
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    63-51
  141. Q2 4:14
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    61-51
  142. Q2 4:14
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
  143. Q2 4:19
    Spurs turnover
  144. Q2 4:32
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    61-49
  145. Q2 4:40
    Rockets offensive rebound
  146. Q2 4:54
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  147. Q2 4:54
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  148. Q2 4:54
    Rockets defensive rebound
  149. Q2 4:54
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  150. Q2 4:54
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  151. Q2 4:57
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  152. Q2 5:29
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    61-45
  153. Q2 5:41
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  154. Q2 5:42
    Tari Eason offensive rebound
  155. Q2 5:58
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Amen Thompson)
  156. Q2 6:02
    Rockets turnover
  157. Q2 6:34
    Spurs personal foul
  158. Q2 6:34
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    54-44
  159. Q2 6:48
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  160. Q2 6:50
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  161. Q2 7:03
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    54-43
  162. Q2 7:20
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  163. Q2 7:32
    Rockets personal foul
  164. Q2 7:32
    Tari Eason turnover (offensive foul)
  165. Q2 7:35
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  166. Q2 7:56
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    49-40
  167. Q2 7:59
    Tari Eason offensive rebound
  168. Q2 7:59
    Rockets offensive rebound
  169. Q2 7:59
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
  170. Q2 8:08
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  171. Q2 8:24
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  172. Q2 9:09
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    47-38
  173. Q2 9:21
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson)
  174. Q2 9:21
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    47-35
  175. Q2 9:34
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  176. Q2 10:01
    Spurs personal foul
  177. Q2 10:01
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    45-35
  178. Q2 10:05
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  179. Q2 10:29
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    43-32
  180. Q2 10:51
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    43-30
  181. Q2 11:09
    Spurs personal foul
  182. Q2 11:21
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    41-28
  183. Q2 11:33
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  184. Q1 00:00
    Rockets offensive rebound
  185. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  186. Q2 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
  187. Q1 00:27
    Tari Eason defensive rebound
  188. Q1 00:48
    Spurs offensive rebound
  189. Q1 00:48
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  190. Q1 00:57
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  191. Q1 1:13
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    37-26
  192. Q1 1:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  193. Q1 1:26
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox, Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson)
  194. Q1 1:38
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    35-26
  195. Q1 2:00
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    32-24
  196. Q1 2:12
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  197. Q1 2:25
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  198. Q1 2:54
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    27-24
  199. Q1 3:01
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  200. Q1 3:08
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  201. Q1 3:08
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
  202. Q1 3:13
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  203. Q1 3:47
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  204. Q1 4:15
    Rockets turnover
  205. Q1 4:29
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  206. Q1 4:31
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  207. Q1 5:04
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  208. Q1 5:06
    Spurs offensive rebound
  209. Q1 5:06
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
  210. Q1 5:29
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    19-18
  211. Q1 5:35
    Spurs turnover
  212. Q1 5:44
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  213. Q1 6:18
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  214. Q1 6:20
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  215. Q1 6:20
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  216. Q1 6:20
    Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  217. Q1 6:40
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    16-15
  218. Q1 7:37
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  219. Q1 7:38
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  220. Q1 7:57
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  221. Q1 7:59
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  222. Q1 8:14
    Spurs defensive rebound
  223. Q1 8:28
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  224. Q1 8:28
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    10-11
  225. Q1 8:28
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    11-11
  226. Q1 8:55
    Stoppage (Other)
  227. Q1 9:23
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  228. Q1 9:42
    Josh Okogie offensive rebound
  229. Q1 9:42
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    6-6
  230. Q1 9:42
    Spurs personal foul
  231. Q1 9:42
    Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  232. Q1 9:44
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  233. Q1 10:06
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  234. Q1 10:25
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    3-4
  235. Q1 11:11
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  236. Q1 11:20
    Rockets turnover
  237. Q1 11:37
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  238. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
  239. Q1 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
Box Score
Spurs
PosPlayerPts
Rockets
PosPlayerPts

Spurs vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Spurs vs. Rockets
  • Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Toyota Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Rockets favored at -4
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Spurs +145, Rockets -164

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Spurs: 38%
  • Rockets: 62%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 108-112 Rockets.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 38%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 62%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Spurs in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Spurs vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.