Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Thunder NBA game on January 13, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Spurs
98
119
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Thunder
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TEAM1234T
Spurs
26 26 38 8 98
Thunder
32 23 49 15 119
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Spurs
    <1%
  • Thunder
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Spurs
26 26 38 8 98
Thunder
32 23 49 15 119
Q4 00:53 Thunder makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:24 Aaron Wiggins misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:02 Spurs makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:13 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:32 Thunder makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
Q4 3:08 Alex Caruso makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jaylin Williams assists)
Q4 3:35 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 4:21 De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
Q4 5:02 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot
Q4 5:19 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:14
    Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:36
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:53
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    98-119
  4. Q4 1:24
    Aaron Wiggins misses three point jump shot
  5. Q4 1:41
    Dylan Harper personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  6. Q4 1:41
    Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe)
  7. Q4 1:41
    Spurs lineup change (Lindy Waters III, Jeremy Sochan, Jordan McLaughlin, Dylan Harper, Kelly Olynyk)
  8. Q4 1:51
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    98-119
  9. Q4 1:51
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe)
  10. Q4 2:02
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    98-119
  11. Q4 2:13
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    98-119
  12. Q4 2:24
    Spurs turnover
  13. Q4 2:29
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  14. Q4 2:32
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
    95-112
  15. Q4 3:06
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander technical foul (Double)
  16. Q4 3:08
    +2
    Alex Caruso makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jaylin Williams assists)
    98-119
  17. Q4 3:26
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso)
  18. Q4 3:31
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  19. Q4 3:35
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point pullup jump shot
  20. Q4 3:47
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  21. Q4 4:06
    Stephon Castle personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  22. Q4 4:06
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  23. Q4 4:06
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    98-119
  24. Q4 4:21
    De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
  25. Q4 5:02
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot
  26. Q4 5:17
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  27. Q4 5:19
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  28. Q4 5:19
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  29. Q4 5:19
    Keldon Johnson turnover (lost ball) (Ajay Mitchell steals)
  30. Q4 5:23
    Spurs offensive rebound
  31. Q4 5:32
    Jaylin Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  32. Q4 5:32
    Thunder offensive rebound
  33. Q4 5:47
    Jump ball. (Aaron Wiggins gains possession)
  34. Q4 5:51
    De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound
  35. Q4 5:51
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
  36. Q4 5:53
    De'Aaron Fox misses two point layup
  37. Q4 6:01
    Luke Kornet blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two point pullup jump shot
  38. Q4 6:08
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  39. Q4 6:20
    Keldon Johnson personal foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
  40. Q4 6:20
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    98-119
  41. Q4 6:20
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    98-119
  42. Q4 7:16
    +2
    Keldon Johnson makes two point cutting layup (Dylan Harper assists)
    95-112
  43. Q4 7:48
    Chet Holmgren blocks Stephon Castle's two point layup
  44. Q4 7:48
    Stephon Castle personal foul (Isaiah Joe draws the foul)
  45. Q4 7:48
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  46. Q4 7:48
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Lindy Waters III, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  47. Q4 7:59
    Ajay Mitchell personal foul (Julian Champagnie draws the foul)
  48. Q4 8:33
    Thunder personal foul
  49. Q4 8:48
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point putback dunk
    82-102
  50. Q4 8:49
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  51. Q4 9:09
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    90-104
  52. Q4 9:09
    Victor Wembanyama violation
  53. Q4 9:26
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  54. Q4 9:33
    Thunder personal foul
  55. Q4 9:33
    Spurs offensive rebound
  56. Q4 9:33
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Lindy Waters III, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  57. Q4 9:56
    Jalen Williams personal foul (Julian Champagnie draws the foul)
  58. Q4 10:48
    +3
    Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
    76-95
  59. Q4 11:08
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  60. Q4 11:18
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    90-104
  61. Q4 11:31
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  62. Q4 11:45
    Ajay Mitchell personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  63. Q3 00:00
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  64. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  65. Q4 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Kenrich Williams, Isaiah Joe)
  66. Q3 00:08
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  67. Q3 00:32
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    76-95
  68. Q3 1:08
    Alex Caruso personal foul (De'Aaron Fox draws the foul)
  69. Q3 1:08
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    90-104
  70. Q3 1:59
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    90-104
  71. Q3 2:02
    Thunder personal foul
  72. Q3 2:19
    Victor Wembanyama misses three point jump shot
  73. Q3 2:29
    Thunder personal foul
  74. Q3 2:29
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
  75. Q3 2:59
    Spurs turnover (shot clock violation)
  76. Q3 3:32
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  77. Q3 3:40
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  78. Q3 3:57
    +2
    Jalen Williams makes two point jump shot
    82-102
  79. Q3 4:27
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  80. Q3 4:38
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  81. Q3 4:48
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  82. Q3 5:16
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  83. Q3 5:16
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
  84. Q3 5:18
    +3
    Jaylin Williams makes three point jump shot
    65-73
  85. Q3 5:30
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  86. Q3 5:58
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso)
  87. Q3 6:04
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  88. Q3 6:05
    Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
  89. Q3 6:20
    +2
    Jalen Williams makes two point jump shot
    76-95
  90. Q3 6:37
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  91. Q3 6:39
    +2
    Stephon Castle makes two point driving floating jump shot
    69-82
  92. Q3 6:39
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  93. Q3 6:44
    Thunder turnover
  94. Q3 6:52
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  95. Q3 7:18
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
  96. Q3 7:37
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    65-73
  97. Q3 7:51
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    62-73
  98. Q3 7:58
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  99. Q3 8:16
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  100. Q3 8:17
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    62-70
  101. Q3 8:37
    Victor Wembanyama personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  102. Q3 8:37
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    62-68
  103. Q3 8:47
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  104. Q3 9:03
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    62-66
  105. Q3 9:32
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  106. Q3 9:50
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    62-66
  107. Q3 10:06
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    62-66
  108. Q3 10:17
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  109. Q3 11:00
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
    62-66
  110. Q3 11:15
    Thunder violation
  111. Q3 11:27
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  112. Q2 00:00
    Thunder offensive rebound
  113. Q3 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
  114. Q3 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
  115. Q2 00:02
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  116. Q2 00:05
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point jump shot
  117. Q2 00:28
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    52-53
  118. Q2 00:29
    Alex Caruso offensive rebound
  119. Q2 00:32
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  120. Q2 00:55
    Chet Holmgren personal foul
  121. Q2 00:55
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  122. Q2 00:55
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  123. Q2 1:11
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren)
  124. Q2 1:13
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  125. Q2 1:48
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    52-53
  126. Q2 1:52
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  127. Q2 2:05
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  128. Q2 2:21
    +3
    Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)
    51-51
  129. Q2 2:56
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  130. Q2 3:12
    Stephon Castle misses two point jump shot
  131. Q2 3:27
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    52-53
  132. Q2 3:27
    +1
    Alex Caruso makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    52-53
  133. Q2 3:45
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
  134. Q2 3:45
    +1
    Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    52-53
  135. Q2 3:59
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  136. Q2 4:22
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  137. Q2 4:25
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  138. Q2 5:01
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  139. Q2 5:01
    Thunder offensive rebound
  140. Q2 5:01
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe)
  141. Q2 5:02
    Ajay Mitchell misses two point driving floating jump shot
  142. Q2 5:36
    Ajay Mitchell turnover (Luke Kornet steals)
  143. Q2 5:43
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  144. Q2 5:47
    Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
  145. Q2 6:18
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  146. Q2 6:32
    Luke Kornet shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  147. Q2 6:32
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    43-45
  148. Q2 6:38
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  149. Q2 6:38
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  150. Q2 6:42
    Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
  151. Q2 6:57
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
  152. Q2 7:17
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    41-43
  153. Q2 7:31
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    37-41
  154. Q2 7:34
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  155. Q2 7:55
    +1
    Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    37-39
  156. Q2 8:12
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    37-37
  157. Q2 8:22
    Thunder turnover
  158. Q2 8:32
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    34-37
  159. Q2 8:55
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    32-36
  160. Q2 9:01
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  161. Q2 9:14
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  162. Q2 9:14
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Kenrich Williams, Isaiah Joe)
  163. Q2 9:22
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  164. Q2 9:35
    Spurs turnover
  165. Q2 9:43
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    30-34
  166. Q2 9:59
    Thunder personal foul
  167. Q2 9:59
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    30-32
  168. Q2 9:59
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    48-51
  169. Q2 10:05
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  170. Q2 10:10
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  171. Q2 10:27
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  172. Q2 10:35
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  173. Q2 10:46
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  174. Q2 10:58
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  175. Q2 11:16
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  176. Q2 11:36
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    28-32
  177. Q2 11:44
    Thunder turnover
  178. Q1 00:00
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  179. Q1 00:00
    Spurs offensive rebound
  180. Q2 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe)
  181. Q1 00:18
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    26-32
  182. Q1 00:26
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  183. Q1 00:28
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  184. Q1 00:39
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    26-29
  185. Q1 00:39
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    26-30
  186. Q1 1:12
    Thunder personal foul
  187. Q1 1:12
    +1
    Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    26-25
  188. Q1 1:32
    Spurs personal foul
  189. Q1 1:32
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Lindy Waters III, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  190. Q1 1:33
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  191. Q1 1:45
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    24-25
  192. Q1 2:00
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  193. Q1 2:11
    Thunder personal foul
  194. Q1 2:12
    Spurs offensive rebound
  195. Q1 2:32
    Spurs personal foul
  196. Q1 2:32
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  197. Q1 2:32
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    24-23
  198. Q1 2:35
    Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
  199. Q1 3:04
    Ajay Mitchell offensive rebound
  200. Q1 3:25
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    22-18
  201. Q1 3:32
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  202. Q1 3:45
    Thunder turnover
  203. Q1 4:11
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    18-18
  204. Q1 4:26
    +1
    Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    18-16
  205. Q1 5:03
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    16-14
  206. Q1 5:16
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  207. Q1 5:36
    Thunder offensive rebound
  208. Q1 5:36
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Lindy Waters III, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
  209. Q1 5:40
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  210. Q1 5:50
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  211. Q1 6:02
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  212. Q1 6:08
    Spurs turnover
  213. Q1 6:28
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    13-14
  214. Q1 6:42
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  215. Q1 6:42
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
  216. Q1 6:44
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  217. Q1 6:46
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  218. Q1 6:55
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  219. Q1 7:13
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    11-11
  220. Q1 7:15
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  221. Q1 7:55
    Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  222. Q1 7:55
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
  223. Q1 8:09
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  224. Q1 8:33
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    7-9
  225. Q1 8:33
    Spurs violation
  226. Q1 8:45
    De'Aaron Fox turnover (offensive foul)
  227. Q1 9:33
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  228. Q1 9:45
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  229. Q1 10:07
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    5-5
  230. Q1 10:22
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  231. Q1 10:32
    Thunder turnover
  232. Q1 10:42
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  233. Q1 10:42
    Spurs offensive rebound
  234. Q1 10:45
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  235. Q1 10:52
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  236. Q1 11:07
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    4-2
  237. Q1 11:46
    +2
    Stephon Castle makes two point driving dunk
    2-0
  238. Q1 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
  239. Q1 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
Box Score
Spurs
PosPlayerPts
Thunder
PosPlayerPts

Spurs vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Spurs vs. Thunder
  • Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Paycom Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -8.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 230.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Spurs +265, Thunder -285

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Spurs: 26%
  • Thunder: 74%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 110-118 Thunder.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 26%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 74%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Spurs in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Spurs vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.