Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA game on December 23, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Nuggets
130
131
American Airlines Center
Mavericks
American Airlines Center
TEAM1234T
Nuggets
27 29 47 27 130
Mavericks
41 25 37 28 131
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Nuggets
    38%
  • Mavericks
    62%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Nuggets
27 29 47 27 130
Mavericks
41 25 37 28 131
Q4 00:00 Peyton Watson misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:31 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:44 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:51 Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating jump shot
Q4 1:12 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:53 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:29 Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:38 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 6:02 Bruce Brown makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:09 Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Peyton Watson misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  4. Q4 00:07
    Mavericks lineup change (Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin)
  5. Q4 00:08
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  6. Q4 00:31
    Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
  7. Q4 00:31
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  8. Q4 00:41
    Bruce Brown offensive rebound
  9. Q4 00:44
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  10. Q4 00:51
    Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating jump shot
  11. Q4 1:12
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    128-131
  12. Q4 1:53
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  13. Q4 2:11
    Naji Marshall defensive rebound
  14. Q4 2:23
    Anthony Davis personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
  15. Q4 3:15
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  16. Q4 5:09
    Anthony Davis offensive rebound
  17. Q4 5:29
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  18. Q4 5:29
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  19. Q4 5:35
    Bruce Brown defensive rebound
  20. Q4 5:38
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  21. Q4 6:02
    +2
    Bruce Brown makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  22. Q4 6:06
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  23. Q4 6:09
    Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
  24. Q4 6:15
    Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
  25. Q4 6:17
    Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
  26. Q4 6:23
    Mavericks turnover
  27. Q4 6:26
    Caleb Martin offensive rebound
  28. Q4 6:27
    Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
  29. Q4 6:42
    Nuggets personal foul
  30. Q4 6:42
    Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
  31. Q4 6:42
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Peyton Watson, Jonas Valanciunas)
  32. Q4 6:44
    Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
  33. Q4 6:47
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  34. Q4 7:25
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  35. Q4 8:04
    +2
    Bruce Brown makes two point putback layup
    130-131
  36. Q4 9:18
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  37. Q4 9:18
    Nuggets lineup change (Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas)
  38. Q4 9:20
    +2
    Ryan Nembhard makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jaden Hardy assists)
    130-131
  39. Q4 9:52
    +2
    Ryan Nembhard makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  40. Q4 10:00
    Caleb Martin offensive rebound
  41. Q4 10:03
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  42. Q4 10:09
    Julian Strawther personal foul (Ryan Nembhard draws the foul)
  43. Q4 10:25
    +1
    Jonas Valanciunas makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    130-131
  44. Q4 10:25
    Mavericks personal foul
  45. Q4 10:25
    +1
    Jonas Valanciunas makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    130-131
  46. Q4 10:32
    Mavericks personal foul
  47. Q4 10:42
    Julian Strawther offensive rebound
  48. Q4 10:42
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  49. Q4 10:45
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  50. Q4 10:57
    Mavericks personal foul
  51. Q4 11:02
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  52. Q4 11:21
    +3
    Julian Strawther makes three point jump shot
    108-105
  53. Q4 11:41
    Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
  54. Q4 11:46
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  55. Q3 00:00
    Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
  56. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  57. Q4 12:00
    Nuggets lineup change (Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas)
  58. Q4 12:00
    Mavericks lineup change (Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg, Caleb Martin, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
  59. Q3 00:01
    +2
    Bruce Brown makes two point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
    130-131
  60. Q3 00:07
    Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
  61. Q3 00:10
    Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
  62. Q3 00:31
    +3
    Cameron Johnson makes three point jump shot
    130-131
  63. Q3 00:38
    Julian Strawther personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
  64. Q3 00:38
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    108-105
  65. Q3 00:38
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    130-131
  66. Q3 00:48
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    108-105
  67. Q3 00:58
    Jump ball. Nikola Jokic vs. Daniel Gafford (Bruce Brown gains possession)
  68. Q3 1:04
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  69. Q3 1:07
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  70. Q3 1:23
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    130-131
  71. Q3 1:37
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  72. Q3 1:39
    Nuggets personal foul
  73. Q3 1:39
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    130-131
  74. Q3 1:39
    Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  75. Q3 1:49
    +2
    Bruce Brown makes two point running layup (Jamal Murray assists)
    108-105
  76. Q3 1:49
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams)
  77. Q3 1:49
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther)
  78. Q3 1:49
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  79. Q3 1:51
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  80. Q3 1:55
    Anthony Davis misses three point jump shot
  81. Q3 2:14
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    130-131
  82. Q3 2:34
    +2
    Caleb Martin makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  83. Q3 2:47
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  84. Q3 2:51
    +2
    Anthony Davis makes two point jump shot
    85-98
  85. Q3 2:54
    Anthony Davis offensive rebound
  86. Q3 2:57
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  87. Q3 3:11
    +3
    Tim Hardaway Jr. makes three point pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
    85-96
  88. Q3 3:26
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
    130-131
  89. Q3 3:41
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    130-131
  90. Q3 3:47
    Jamal Murray turnover
  91. Q3 3:48
    Caleb Martin turnover (bad pass) (Bruce Brown steals)
  92. Q3 3:52
    Jamal Murray turnover (bad pass)
  93. Q3 4:03
    Mavericks violation
  94. Q3 4:03
    Nuggets personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
  95. Q3 4:03
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
  96. Q3 4:03
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
  97. Q3 4:04
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    108-105
  98. Q3 4:04
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    108-105
  99. Q3 4:20
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    79-91
  100. Q3 4:35
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    76-88
  101. Q3 4:35
    Nikola Jokic shooting foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)
  102. Q3 4:35
    +1
    Caleb Martin makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    130-131
  103. Q3 4:40
    Bruce Brown personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
  104. Q3 4:43
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
  105. Q3 4:44
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  106. Q3 4:57
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  107. Q3 5:11
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
  108. Q3 5:11
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  109. Q3 5:11
    Mavericks defensive rebound
  110. Q3 5:12
    Nikola Jokic misses two point jump shot
  111. Q3 5:13
    Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
  112. Q3 5:15
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  113. Q3 5:32
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)
    76-88
  114. Q3 5:45
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  115. Q3 5:45
    Nuggets personal foul
  116. Q3 5:45
    Peyton Watson turnover (offensive foul)
  117. Q3 5:45
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones)
  118. Q3 5:46
    Cooper Flagg misses two point tip dunk
  119. Q3 5:46
    Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
  120. Q3 5:50
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  121. Q3 6:02
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  122. Q3 6:10
    +2
    Caleb Martin makes two point cutting layup (Anthony Davis assists)
    130-131
  123. Q3 6:23
    Caleb Martin defensive rebound
  124. Q3 6:26
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  125. Q3 6:40
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones)
  126. Q3 6:40
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    76-91
  127. Q3 6:40
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  128. Q3 6:40
    Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
  129. Q3 6:44
    Nikola Jokic turnover
  130. Q3 7:01
    +2
    Jaden Hardy makes two point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
    76-91
  131. Q3 7:06
    Nuggets turnover
  132. Q3 7:21
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  133. Q3 7:23
    Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
  134. Q3 7:25
    Naji Marshall misses three point jump shot
  135. Q3 7:47
    +3
    Cameron Johnson makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
    76-84
  136. Q3 7:58
    Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
  137. Q3 7:58
    Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
  138. Q3 8:14
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point driving finger roll layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
    130-131
  139. Q3 8:21
    Instant replay (Request)
  140. Q3 8:21
    Jaden Hardy clear path foul (Peyton Watson draws the foul)
  141. Q3 8:21
    +1
    Peyton Watson makes clear path free throw 2 of 2
    130-131
  142. Q3 8:21
    +1
    Peyton Watson makes clear path free throw 1 of 2
    130-131
  143. Q3 8:23
    Anthony Davis turnover
  144. Q3 8:37
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  145. Q3 8:52
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot
    130-131
  146. Q3 8:59
    Anthony Davis defensive rebound
  147. Q3 9:03
    Jamal Murray misses three point stepback jump shot
  148. Q3 9:10
    Anthony Davis personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
  149. Q3 9:19
    Nikola Jokic shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
  150. Q3 9:19
    +1
    Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    130-131
  151. Q3 9:19
    +1
    Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    130-131
  152. Q3 9:34
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point driving layup
    130-131
  153. Q3 9:49
    +3
    Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
    130-131
  154. Q3 9:59
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  155. Q3 10:10
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  156. Q3 10:10
    Spencer Jones offensive rebound
  157. Q3 10:14
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  158. Q3 10:18
    Mavericks turnover
  159. Q3 10:31
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    63-68
  160. Q3 10:43
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  161. Q3 10:46
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  162. Q3 11:04
    +3
    Nikola Jokic makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    130-131
  163. Q3 11:21
    +2
    Jaden Hardy makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  164. Q3 11:50
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    130-131
  165. Q3 11:57
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  166. Q2 00:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  167. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  168. Q2 00:00
    Nikola Jokic misses three point turnaround jump shot
  169. Q2 00:11
    +3
    Cooper Flagg makes three point jump shot
    50-61
  170. Q2 00:32
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    50-61
  171. Q2 00:40
    Spencer Jones defensive rebound
  172. Q2 00:42
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  173. Q2 00:51
    Anthony Davis defensive rebound
  174. Q2 00:53
    Cameron Johnson misses two point running layup
  175. Q2 00:57
    Naji Marshall turnover (lost ball) (Spencer Jones steals)
  176. Q2 1:00
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  177. Q2 1:00
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  178. Q2 1:01
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  179. Q2 1:23
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    130-131
  180. Q2 1:37
    Peyton Watson personal foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
  181. Q2 1:37
    +1
    Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    130-131
  182. Q2 1:37
    +1
    Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    130-131
  183. Q2 1:38
    Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
  184. Q2 1:38
    Anthony Davis offensive rebound
  185. Q2 1:55
    Jaden Hardy personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  186. Q2 1:55
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    130-131
  187. Q2 1:55
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    130-131
  188. Q2 1:58
    Peyton Watson defensive rebound
  189. Q2 2:02
    Ryan Nembhard misses two point jump shot
  190. Q2 2:13
    Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
  191. Q2 2:13
    Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
  192. Q2 2:13
    Spencer Jones turnover
  193. Q2 2:13
    Spencer Jones defensive rebound
  194. Q2 2:13
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones)
  195. Q2 2:13
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones)
  196. Q2 2:18
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  197. Q2 2:39
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
    50-61
  198. Q2 3:03
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point driving floating jump shot
    48-61
  199. Q2 3:22
    Nuggets turnover
  200. Q2 3:22
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones)
  201. Q2 3:22
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams)
  202. Q2 3:36
    +3
    D'Angelo Russell makes three point jump shot
    50-61
  203. Q2 3:43
    Jamal Murray offensive rebound
  204. Q2 3:43
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
    50-61
  205. Q2 3:43
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  206. Q2 3:48
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  207. Q2 3:58
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  208. Q2 4:01
    Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
  209. Q2 4:23
    +2
    Julian Strawther makes two point running layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
    50-61
  210. Q2 4:28
    Mavericks turnover
  211. Q2 4:40
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    50-61
  212. Q2 4:59
    +2
    Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
    50-61
  213. Q2 5:17
    Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
  214. Q2 5:17
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point layup
    85-98
  215. Q2 5:17
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  216. Q2 5:17
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Curtis Jones, Jamal Murray, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones)
  217. Q2 5:20
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  218. Q2 5:33
    Julian Strawther defensive rebound
  219. Q2 5:37
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  220. Q2 5:43
    Nuggets personal foul
  221. Q2 5:43
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
  222. Q2 5:43
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Curtis Jones, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther)
  223. Q2 5:58
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point driving layup
    40-54
  224. Q2 6:09
    Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams)
  225. Q2 6:09
    Naji Marshall kicked ball violation
  226. Q2 6:21
    +2
    Brandon Williams makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
    38-54
  227. Q2 6:38
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point pullup jump shot
    38-52
  228. Q2 6:46
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  229. Q2 6:48
    Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
  230. Q2 7:01
    +2
    Jonas Valanciunas makes two point turnaround hook shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    36-52
  231. Q2 7:11
    Cooper Flagg personal foul (Jonas Valanciunas draws the foul)
  232. Q2 7:11
    Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
  233. Q2 7:21
    Nuggets lineup change (Curtis Jones, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas)
  234. Q2 7:21
    Mavericks lineup change (Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
  235. Q2 7:21
    Cooper Flagg turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  236. Q2 7:24
    Bruce Brown turnover (bad pass) (Cooper Flagg steals)
  237. Q2 7:43
    +2
    Jaden Hardy makes two point driving floating jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
    34-52
  238. Q2 8:11
    +3
    Tim Hardaway Jr. makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
    34-50
  239. Q2 8:14
    Spencer Jones defensive rebound
  240. Q2 8:17
    Bruce Brown blocks Daniel Gafford's two point driving layup
  241. Q2 8:30
    +2
    Bruce Brown makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jonas Valanciunas assists)
    31-50
  242. Q2 8:41
    Bruce Brown defensive rebound
  243. Q2 8:44
    Cooper Flagg misses two point pullup jump shot
  244. Q2 8:49
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Box Score
Nuggets
PosPlayerPts
Mavericks
PosPlayerPts

Nuggets vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Nuggets vs. Mavericks
  • Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: American Airlines Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Nuggets favored at -6
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Nuggets -240, Mavericks +205

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Nuggets: 70%
  • Mavericks: 30%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Nuggets 121-115 Mavericks.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Nuggets a win probability of 70%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 30%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Nuggets are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.