Thunder vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Grizzlies NBA game on November 9, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Thunder
114
100
FedExForum
Grizzlies
FedExForum
TEAM1234T
Thunder
25 26 34 29 114
Grizzlies
33 29 18 19 100
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Thunder
    >99%
  • Grizzlies
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Thunder
25 26 34 29 114
Grizzlies
33 29 18 19 100
Q4 00:32 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:06 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:30 Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:41 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:05 Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:13 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:41 Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:45 Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:51 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:05 Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:21
    Thunder personal foul
  3. Q4 00:21
    GG Jackson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  4. Q4 00:21
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  5. Q4 00:21
    Grizzlies lineup change (Vince Williams Jr., Cam Spencer, PJ Hall, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, GG Jackson)
  6. Q4 00:21
    +1
    GG Jackson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    114-100
  7. Q4 00:29
    GG Jackson defensive rebound
  8. Q4 00:32
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  9. Q4 00:54
    Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
  10. Q4 00:57
    Thunder personal foul
  11. Q4 00:57
    +1
    Jaren Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    114-99
  12. Q4 00:57
    Grizzlies lineup change (Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., Cam Spencer, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, GG Jackson)
  13. Q4 00:57
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ousmane Dieng, Brooks Barnhizer, Ajay Mitchell, Chris Youngblood)
  14. Q4 00:57
    Jaren Jackson Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  15. Q4 1:06
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    114-98
  16. Q4 1:29
    Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
  17. Q4 1:30
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  18. Q4 1:38
    Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
  19. Q4 1:41
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  20. Q4 1:54
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  21. Q4 2:00
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  22. Q4 2:05
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  23. Q4 2:13
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  24. Q4 2:13
    Thunder offensive rebound
  25. Q4 2:13
    Grizzlies personal foul
  26. Q4 2:13
    +1
    Isaiah Hartenstein makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    111-98
  27. Q4 2:13
    +1
    Isaiah Hartenstein makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-98
  28. Q4 2:14
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  29. Q4 2:14
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein)
  30. Q4 2:14
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein)
  31. Q4 2:17
    Grizzlies turnover
  32. Q4 2:26
    Grizzlies personal foul
  33. Q4 2:26
    Instant replay
  34. Q4 2:26
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    109-98
  35. Q4 2:26
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., Cam Spencer, Santi Aldama, Ja Morant)
  36. Q4 2:26
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    110-98
  37. Q4 2:41
    Cedric Coward offensive rebound
  38. Q4 2:41
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    108-98
  39. Q4 2:45
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  40. Q4 2:51
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    107-96
  41. Q4 2:51
    Grizzlies personal foul
  42. Q4 2:51
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    108-96
  43. Q4 2:51
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama, Ja Morant)
  44. Q4 3:05
    Jock Landale offensive rebound
  45. Q4 3:05
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    105-96
  46. Q4 3:12
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  47. Q4 3:22
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    105-94
  48. Q4 3:35
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  49. Q4 3:42
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  50. Q4 4:00
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    102-94
  51. Q4 4:20
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    99-94
  52. Q4 4:20
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  53. Q4 4:20
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso)
  54. Q4 4:20
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Jock Landale, Santi Aldama, Ja Morant)
  55. Q4 4:34
    Santi Aldama defensive rebound
  56. Q4 4:37
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  57. Q4 4:53
    Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
  58. Q4 4:56
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  59. Q4 5:03
    Ja Morant defensive rebound
  60. Q4 5:06
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  61. Q4 5:14
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  62. Q4 5:18
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  63. Q4 5:32
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    99-92
  64. Q4 5:40
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  65. Q4 5:44
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  66. Q4 5:56
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  67. Q4 6:04
    Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
  68. Q4 6:04
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    97-92
  69. Q4 6:07
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  70. Q4 6:10
    Cason Wallace offensive rebound
  71. Q4 6:13
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  72. Q4 6:20
    Grizzlies turnover
  73. Q4 6:28
    Thunder personal foul
  74. Q4 6:28
    Grizzlies 60 second timeout
  75. Q4 6:28
    Instant replay
  76. Q4 6:28
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe)
  77. Q4 6:28
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr., Cam Spencer, Santi Aldama, Ja Morant)
  78. Q4 6:28
    Jaren Jackson Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 3
  79. Q4 6:28
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  80. Q4 6:28
    Jaren Jackson Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 3
  81. Q4 6:28
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  82. Q4 6:28
    +1
    Jaren Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    95-92
  83. Q4 6:35
    Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound
  84. Q4 6:38
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  85. Q4 6:45
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  86. Q4 6:48
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  87. Q4 7:06
    Grizzlies personal foul
  88. Q4 7:06
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    94-91
  89. Q4 7:06
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    95-91
  90. Q4 7:06
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., Cam Spencer, Santi Aldama)
  91. Q4 7:21
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  92. Q4 7:25
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  93. Q4 7:29
    Santi Aldama defensive rebound
  94. Q4 7:31
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  95. Q4 7:39
    Grizzlies personal foul
  96. Q4 7:42
    Grizzlies personal foul
  97. Q4 7:51
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  98. Q4 7:51
    Grizzlies personal foul
  99. Q4 7:53
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  100. Q4 8:05
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    93-91
  101. Q4 8:16
    Thunder personal foul
  102. Q4 8:16
    +1
    Cam Spencer makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    91-90
  103. Q4 8:16
    +1
    Cam Spencer makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    91-91
  104. Q4 8:23
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    91-89
  105. Q4 8:45
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    89-88
  106. Q4 8:45
    Thunder personal foul
  107. Q4 8:45
    Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe)
  108. Q4 8:45
    +1
    Santi Aldama makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    89-89
  109. Q4 8:55
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  110. Q4 8:55
    Grizzlies lineup change (Vince Williams Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jaren Jackson Jr., Cam Spencer, Santi Aldama)
  111. Q4 9:07
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    89-86
  112. Q4 9:09
    Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
  113. Q4 9:11
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  114. Q4 9:26
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    87-86
  115. Q4 9:48
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  116. Q4 9:48
    Grizzlies defensive rebound
  117. Q4 9:48
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  118. Q4 9:53
    Grizzlies turnover
  119. Q4 9:56
    John Konchar defensive rebound
  120. Q4 9:59
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  121. Q4 10:11
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    87-83
  122. Q4 10:21
    Thunder violation
  123. Q4 10:32
    Grizzlies defensive rebound
  124. Q4 10:32
    Thunder personal foul
  125. Q4 10:33
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  126. Q4 10:45
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  127. Q4 10:49
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  128. Q4 11:00
    John Konchar defensive rebound
  129. Q4 11:02
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  130. Q4 11:21
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  131. Q4 11:24
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  132. Q4 11:44
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    87-80
  133. Q3 00:00
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  134. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  135. Q4 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso)
  136. Q4 12:00
    Grizzlies lineup change (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, John Konchar, Ja Morant)
  137. Q3 00:01
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    85-80
  138. Q3 00:22
    Thunder personal foul
  139. Q3 00:22
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    82-79
  140. Q3 00:22
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    82-80
  141. Q3 00:22
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jock Landale, John Konchar, Ja Morant)
  142. Q3 00:31
    Grizzlies personal foul
  143. Q3 00:31
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    81-78
  144. Q3 00:31
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    82-78
  145. Q3 00:38
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  146. Q3 00:40
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  147. Q3 00:55
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    80-78
  148. Q3 1:07
    Grizzlies turnover
  149. Q3 1:18
    Thunder personal foul
  150. Q3 1:31
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  151. Q3 1:31
    Santi Aldama offensive rebound
  152. Q3 1:31
    Thunder defensive rebound
  153. Q3 1:31
    Grizzlies personal foul
  154. Q3 1:31
    +1
    Alex Caruso makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    77-78
  155. Q3 1:31
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe)
  156. Q3 1:31
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, John Konchar, Ja Morant)
  157. Q3 1:31
    +1
    Alex Caruso makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    78-78
  158. Q3 1:33
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  159. Q3 1:45
    Cedric Coward defensive rebound
  160. Q3 1:49
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  161. Q3 2:05
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    76-78
  162. Q3 2:13
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  163. Q3 2:13
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  164. Q3 2:15
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  165. Q3 2:30
    +3
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point jump shot
    76-76
  166. Q3 2:44
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  167. Q3 2:48
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  168. Q3 2:54
    Santi Aldama defensive rebound
  169. Q3 2:57
    Grizzlies personal foul
  170. Q3 2:57
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    72-76
  171. Q3 2:57
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    73-76
  172. Q3 2:57
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 3 of 3
  173. Q3 2:57
    Thunder lineup change (Brooks Barnhizer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe)
  174. Q3 3:08
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  175. Q3 3:11
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  176. Q3 3:25
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    71-76
  177. Q3 3:42
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    69-76
  178. Q3 4:00
    Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
  179. Q3 4:05
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  180. Q3 4:10
    Alex Caruso offensive rebound
  181. Q3 4:12
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  182. Q3 4:29
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    69-73
  183. Q3 4:47
    Thunder personal foul
  184. Q3 4:47
    Thunder turnover
  185. Q3 4:47
    Isaiah Hartenstein turnover
  186. Q3 4:47
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Vince Williams Jr., Jock Landale, Santi Aldama, Ja Morant)
  187. Q3 4:47
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe)
  188. Q3 4:47
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe)
  189. Q3 4:47
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama)
  190. Q3 4:53
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  191. Q3 4:56
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  192. Q3 5:10
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    69-70
  193. Q3 5:21
    Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
  194. Q3 5:24
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  195. Q3 5:34
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    67-70
  196. Q3 5:46
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    65-70
  197. Q3 6:04
    Jock Landale defensive rebound
  198. Q3 6:07
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  199. Q3 6:21
    Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
  200. Q3 6:24
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  201. Q3 6:34
    Grizzlies personal foul
  202. Q3 6:34
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    64-67
  203. Q3 6:34
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    65-67
  204. Q3 6:43
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  205. Q3 6:45
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  206. Q3 7:00
    Grizzlies 60 second timeout
  207. Q3 7:01
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    63-67
  208. Q3 7:05
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  209. Q3 7:11
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  210. Q3 7:26
    Thunder personal foul
  211. Q3 7:26
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cedric Coward, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jock Landale, Santi Aldama, Ja Morant)
  212. Q3 7:31
    Jock Landale defensive rebound
  213. Q3 7:35
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  214. Q3 7:53
    Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
  215. Q3 7:56
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  216. Q3 8:10
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    60-67
  217. Q3 8:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  218. Q3 8:18
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  219. Q3 8:21
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  220. Q3 8:33
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    58-67
  221. Q3 8:37
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  222. Q3 8:42
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  223. Q3 8:46
    Thunder turnover
  224. Q3 8:58
    Jump ball. (Isaiah Hartenstein gains possession)
  225. Q3 9:02
    Ja Morant shooting foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
  226. Q3 9:02
    Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
  227. Q3 9:02
    Cason Wallace misses two point driving layup
  228. Q3 9:02
    Thunder offensive rebound
  229. Q3 11:59
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
Box Score
Thunder
PosPlayerPts
Grizzlies
PosPlayerPts

Thunder vs. Grizzlies: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Thunder vs. Grizzlies
  • Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • Venue: FedExForum

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -10.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Thunder -460, Grizzlies +400

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Thunder: 79%
  • Grizzlies: 21%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 120-110 Grizzlies.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 79%, while the Grizzlies have a win probability of 21%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Grizzlies in the NBA game at FedExForum on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.