Houston vs. Dallas Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Houston vs. Dallas MLS match on March 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.

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FINAL

MLS

FINAL

MLS

Houston

Mar 21, 8:30 PM ET Toyota Stadium

Dallas

Mar 21, 8:30 PM ET Toyota Stadium

DallasFCD

Score Summary

HoustonHOU

L. Farrington (6')

L. Farrington (14')

E. Sviatchenko (o.g.) (54')

P. Musa (86')

Guilherme (29')

E. Sviatchenko (31')

L. Ennali (33')

E. Sviatchenko (68')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

Dallas
96.9%
Draw
3.1%
Houston
0.1%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'

Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Ibeagha replaces L. Farrington

86'

Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Musa, assisted by J. Valiente

3-4

86'

Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Bouzat replaces H. Herrera

75'

Substitution for FC Dallas: R. Binyamin replaces Kaick

74'

Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Resch replaces L. Ennali

74'

Substitution for FC Dallas: P. Delgado replaces N. Norris

68'

E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) sent off for a second yellow card

67'

Substitution for Houston Dynamo: O. Lingr replaces E. Ponce

67'

Substitution for Houston Dynamo: I. Aliyu replaces D. Holmes

57'

Kaick (FC Dallas) cautioned

54'

Goal scored for FC Dallas by E. Sviatchenko (o.g.)

3-3

46'

Substitution for FC Dallas: P. Musa replaces C. Cappis

46'

D. Holmes (Houston Dynamo) cautioned

45'

E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) cautioned

38'

E. Ponce (Houston Dynamo) cautioned

33'

Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by L. Ennali, assisted by Guilherme

3-2

31'

Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by E. Sviatchenko, assisted by Guilherme

2-2

29'

Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by Guilherme

1-2

20'

O. Urhoghide (FC Dallas) cautioned

14'

Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington

0-2

Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington

0-1

Houston vs. Dallas: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

Teams: Houston vs. Dallas
Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Stadium

Current betting odds

Moneyline: Houston +180, Dallas +145, draw +260
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-141/+120)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

Houston: 27.9%
Dallas: 47.9%
Draw: 24.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Houston 1-1 Dallas (11.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Houston vs. Dallas? Prediction & correct score

Dallas is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.9%.

The most likely correct score is Houston 1-1 Dallas.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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