Sporting KC vs. Dallas Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Sporting KC vs. Dallas MLS match on September 5, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.

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FINAL

MLS

FINAL

MLS

Sporting KC

Sep 5, 8:30 PM ET Toyota Stadium

Dallas

Sep 5, 8:30 PM ET Toyota Stadium

DallasFCD

Score Summary

Sporting KCSKC

L. Farrington (27')

P. Musa (30')

Kaick (45')

P. Musa (pen.) (90')

T. Calheira (4')

S. Afrifa (19')

T. Calheira (78')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

Dallas
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
Sporting KC
0.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'
Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Musa (pen.)
3-4
90'
R. Wicky (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
88'
M. Mosquera (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
85'
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Miller replaces J. Reynolds
85'
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Reid replaces E. Karic
81'
Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Sarver replaces N. Norris
78'
Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by T. Calheira, assisted by E. Karic
3-3
75'
Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Moreno replaces L. Farrington
75'
Substitution for FC Dallas: R. Binyamin replaces J. Valiente
67'
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Reid replaces S. Afrifa
62'
Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Ibeagha replaces H. Johansson
62'
Substitution for FC Dallas: C. Cappis replaces Ramiro
58'
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Suleymanov replaces Andre Luiz
45'
Goal scored for FC Dallas by Kaick, assisted by L. Farrington
2-3
30'
Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Musa, assisted by B. Kamungo
2-2
27'
Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington, assisted by P. Musa
2-1
19'
Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by S. Afrifa
2-0
4'
Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by T. Calheira
1-0

Sporting KC vs. Dallas: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

Teams: Sporting KC vs. Dallas
Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Stadium

Current betting odds

Moneyline: Sporting KC 13¢, Dallas 70¢, draw 18¢
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (68¢/32¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

Sporting KC: 10.2%
Dallas: 75.3%
Draw: 14.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Sporting KC 0-2 Dallas (9.2%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Sporting KC vs. Dallas? Prediction & correct score

Dallas is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 75.3%.

The most likely correct score is Sporting KC 0-2 Dallas.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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