Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. Marlins MLB game on May 4, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
MLB sport icon
MLB
Phillies
Aaron Nola 1-3, 6.03 ERA
1
0
May 4, 6:40 PM ET loanDepot park
Marlins
Janson Junk 2-2, 3.00 ERA
May 4, 6:40 PM ET loanDepot park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Phillies
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 1
Marlins
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Phillies
    100%
  • Marlins
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Liam Hicks grounds out to second base, Bryson Stott to Bryce Harper.
Quick Box Score
Phillies Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 T. Turner SS4000002.0000.000
2 K. Schwarber DH4000001.0000.000
3 B. Harper 1B4131100.7502.500
4 A. García RF4020001.5001.000
5 B. Marsh LF4010000.2500.500
6 B. Stott 2B4000001.0000.000
7 A. Bohm 3B4000000.0000.000
8 G. Stubbs C4010001.2500.500
9 J. Crawford CF3000002.0000.000
Marlins Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Marsee CF4020002.5001.000
2 J. Sanoja PR0000000.0000.000
3 O. Lopez SS4010000.2500.500
4 X. Edwards 2B4010000.2500.500
5 L. Hicks DH4000001.0000.000
6 C. Morel 1B3010002.3330.666
7 J. Mack C3000001.0000.000
8 E. Ruiz RF1000000.0000.000
9 C. Norby 3B1000000.0000.000

Phillies vs. Marlins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Phillies vs. Marlins
  • Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
  • Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Venue: loanDepot park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Phillies favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Phillies +106, Marlins -104

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Phillies: 47%
  • Marlins: 53%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 47%, while the Marlins have a win probability of 53%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Marlins are more likely to beat the Phillies in the MLB game at loanDepot park on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. Marlins predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.