Sep 18, 2026
Red Sox vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/18/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 52.9% win probability for the Mets at Citi Field.
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will lock horns in MLB action at Citi Field on Friday, starting at 7:15 PM ET.
Zac Thornton (4-5, 3.44 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mets, pitting him against Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.54 ERA) for the Phillies.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 52.9% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers a complete Phillies vs. Mets prediction, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Mets a 52.9% chance of beating the Phillies. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 64.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 55.9% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+165) / Mets +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Phillies +100, Mets -104
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-108/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 63¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Mets @ 51¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Date: Friday, September 18, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 52.9% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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