Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +950 pick for Wednesday [9/23/2026]

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 21.6% probability
• Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): 20.0%
• Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 19.9%
• Shea Langeliers (Athletics): 19.3%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 19.0%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 18.8%
• Mike Trout (Angels): 17.4%
• Jesús Sánchez (Diamondbacks): 16.9%
• Juan Soto (Mets): 16.8%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 16.5%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.6% chance to go yard, followed by Ketel Marte (20.0%) and Corbin Carroll (19.9%).

Shea Langeliers and Junior Caminero are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [9/23/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 14.6%
• Odds: +950
• Edge: 5.1%
• Pitching matchup: Ryan Gusto
• More game projections: Marlins vs. Cubs prediction (7:40 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Michael Busch rates as a value play at +950 with Fanatics, showing a 5.1% edge.

Set to face Ryan Gusto in tonight's Marlins-Cubs matchup, the data supports Busch as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 16 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 23, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.1% edge at +950 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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