Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +550 pick for Dinger Tuesday [8/4/2026]
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, August 4, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for August 4, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — including one value pick the model rates as value at +550.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 23.4% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 23.2% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 21.6% |
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 20.9% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 20.8% |
| Spencer Jones (Yankees) | 20.0% |
| Trent Grisham (Yankees) | 19.2% |
| Austin Wells (Yankees) | 18.6% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 18.2% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.8% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.4% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (23.2%) and Ben Rice (21.6%).
Eugenio Suárez and Jazz Chisholm are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [8/4/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Spencer Jones (Yankees) to hit a home run
- Probability: 20.1%
- Odds: +550
- Edge: 4.7%
- Game: Cardinals vs. Yankees (7:05 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Hunter Dobbins
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Spencer Jones rates as a value play at +550 with BetRivers, showing a 4.7% edge.
Set to face Hunter Dobbins in tonight's Cardinals-Yankees matchup, the data supports Jones as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, when bettors look for value in home run props across a packed MLB slate.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For August 4, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Spencer Jones who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.7% edge at +550 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
