MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Blue Jays vs. Guardians play [9/3/2026]

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Over 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 58.8%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Blue Jays vs. Guardians at -113 odds. A 58.8% probability produces an edge of 5.8%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Rays vs. Rangers Over 7.5 runs (-114)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 58.1%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

Rays vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs carries a 4.8% edge and a probability of 58.1% at -114 odds, according to our model.

Athletics vs. Mariners Over 7.5 runs (+104)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)

Athletics vs. Mariners Over 7.5 runs at +104 odds shows a 4.8% edge, supported by a 53.8% probability in simulations.

Red Sox vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 54.6%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET)

A 4.6% edge and 54.6% probability make Red Sox vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs a value play in the Red Sox vs. Orioles matchup, per our model.

Royals +1.5 (-150)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 64.5%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

Royals +1.5 at -150 odds presents a 4.5% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 64.5%.

Cubs ML (+106)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 52.4%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Cubs (7:15PM ET)

Our model finds value on Cubs to win at +106 odds, supported by an edge of 3.9%.

Marlins vs. Royals Over 8.5 runs (-122)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 58.3%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Marlins vs. Royals Over 8.5 runs at -122 odds. A 58.3% probability produces a 3.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Royals ML (+104)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 52.2%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

A 3.2% edge on a 52.2% probability makes Royals to win at +104 odds a solid value play in today's Marlins vs. Royals matchup.

Orioles ML (+122)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 48%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET)

Our model projects value on Orioles to win at +122 odds. A 48% probability produces a 3.0% edge, making Orioles the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Giants ML (+150)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 42.8%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Giants to defeat Pirates at +150 odds shows a 42.8% probability and a 2.8% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 9/3/2026

As of 2:26AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/3/2026]

• Giants vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Blue Jays vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• White Sox vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Brewers vs. Cubs (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Red Sox vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Marlins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Athletics vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Cardinals vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 3, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Blue Jays vs. Guardians matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Rays vs. Rangers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.