Jul 29, 2026
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Read Article Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction: St. Louis favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions for MLB Thursday.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona dbacks will lock horns in MLB action at Busch Stadium on Thursday, starting at 5:15 PM ET.
The Cardinals will start Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA), up against Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 51.1% win probability over the Diamondbacks.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cardinals a 51.1% chance of beating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 65.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51.9% chance of staying under,.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds [7/23/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+186) |
| Moneyline | +111 | -113 |
| Total | o8.5 (+150) | u8.5 (-156) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cardinals -1.5 | +186 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +111 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +150 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:15 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
- Time: 5:15 PM ET/2:15PM PT
- Venue: Busch Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Cardinals, with a 51.1% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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