Malaga vs. Villareal Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Malaga vs. Villareal La Liga match on September 17, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Villareal
3
1
Estadio La Rosaleda
Malaga
Estadio La Rosaleda
MalagaMCF
Score Summary
VillarealVIL
C. Dotor (12')
Soccer ball icon
A. Moleiro (40')
Soccer ball icon
P. Gueye (45')
Soccer ball icon
P. Gueye (pen.) (86')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Malaga
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Villareal
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 86'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by P. Gueye (pen.)
    3-1
  2. 85'
    Yellow Card
    A. Herrero (Malaga) cautioned
  3. 82'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  4. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: S. Mourino replaces A. Moleiro
  5. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: C. Macia replaces N. Saliba
  6. 79'
    Yellow Card
    R. Enriquez (Malaga) cautioned
  7. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Malaga: R. Enriquez replaces C. Puga
  8. 70'
    Yellow Card
    E. Galilea (Malaga) cautioned
  9. 68'
    Yellow Card
    D. Larrubia (Malaga) cautioned
  10. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: C. Romero replaces I. Akhomach
  11. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: G. Mikautadze replaces A. Perez
  12. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Malaga: J. Munoz replaces I. Merino
  13. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Malaga: A. Nino replaces C. Dotor
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Malaga: D. Lorenzo replaces J. Cruz
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Malaga: Rafita replaces J. Salinas
  16. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by P. Gueye, assisted by A. Perez
    2-1
  17. 42'
    Yellow Card
    I. Akhomach (Villarreal) cautioned
  18. 40'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by A. Moleiro, assisted by I. Akhomach
    1-1
  19. 37'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: P. Gueye replaces S. Comesana
  20. 34'
    Yellow Card
    J. Salinas (Malaga) cautioned
  21. 12'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Malaga by C. Dotor, assisted by J. Cruz
    0-1

Malaga vs. Villareal: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Malaga vs. Villareal
  • Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Malaga <1¢, Villareal 47¢, draw <1¢
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (57¢/44¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Malaga: 31.0%
  • Villareal: 45.4%
  • Draw: 23.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Malaga 1-1 Villareal (10.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Malaga vs. Villareal? Prediction & correct score

Villareal is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 45.4%.

The most likely correct score is Malaga 1-1 Villareal.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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