Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao La Liga match on May 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
FINAL
LA LIGA
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Athletic Bilbao
2
4
May 23, 3:00 PM ET
Real Madrid
May 23, 3:00 PM ET
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
Athletic BilbaoBIL
G. Garcia (12')
Soccer ball icon
J. Bellingham (41')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (51')
Soccer ball icon
B. Diaz (90')
Soccer ball icon
G. Guruzeta (45')
Soccer ball icon
Izeta (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Athletic Bilbao
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by B. Diaz, assisted by T. Pitarch
1-4
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by Izeta, assisted by I. Williams
2-4
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Ath Bilbao: M. Vesga replaces M. Jauregizar
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: M. Serrano replaces D. Carvajal
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces J. Bellingham
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Guler replaces G. Garcia
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces F. Mastantuono
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Ath Bilbao: Izeta replaces G. Guruzeta
70'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Huijsen replaces D. Alaba
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Ath Bilbao: I. Lekue replaces I. Ruiz de Galarreta
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Rego replaces U. Gomez
51'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by A. Carreras
1-3
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Gorosabel replaces Y. Alvarez
45'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by G. Guruzeta, assisted by I. Williams
1-2
41'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by J. Bellingham, assisted by T. Pitarch
0-2
20'
Yellow Card
J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) cautioned
12'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by G. Garcia, assisted by D. Carvajal
0-1
3'
Yellow Card
T. Pitarch (Real Madrid) cautioned

Featured offers

Swipe iconSwipe across to view more offers
logo
RECOMMENDED
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
FEATURED
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
TRENDING
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
NEW
Trade $10, Get $20 with Code DIMERS
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
HOTTEST
$1,000 First Bet Reset Paid in Bonus Bets!
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed - When You Bet $5 for 7 Days!
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
LIMITED-TIME
Register with code DIMERS150 to unlock $150 in bonus bets by winning your first $10 bet
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Double Your Winnings on your Next 10 Wagers. Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Code DIMERS: Trade $10, Get $10
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get Up To $250 Back in Bonus Bets If Your First Bet Loses
T&Cs apply.
Read review
How to claim

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao
  • Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -188, Athletic Bilbao +475, draw +380
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-225/+175)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 61.1%
  • Athletic Bilbao: 18.6%
  • Draw: 20.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao (9.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with a free 3-day trial—cancel anytime.

Who will win Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.1%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.