Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano La Liga match on May 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Rayo Vallecano
2
1
May 23, 3:00 PM ET Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
May 23, 3:00 PM ET Estadio Mendizorrotza
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Rayo VallecanoRVC
T. Martinez (13')
Soccer ball icon
S. Camello (73')
Soccer ball icon
R. Nteka (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Alaves
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by R. Nteka, assisted by S. Camello
2-1
90'
Yellow Card
Pacha (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
88'
Yellow Card
N. Tenaglia (Alaves) cautioned
88'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: A. Ratiu replaces I. Balliu
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: I. Diabate replaces L. Boye
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces J. Guridi
79'
Yellow Card
A. Rebbach (Alaves) cautioned
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: D. Suarez replaces P. Ibanez
73'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by S. Camello, assisted by P. Ciss
1-1
69'
Yellow Card
A. Perez (Alaves) cautioned
64'
Yellow Card
P. Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
61'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: P. Ciss replaces A. Mumin
61'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Alemao replaces O. Valentin
54'
Yellow Card
S. Camello (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: J. de Frutos replaces A. Garcia
38'
Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: S. Camello replaces C. Martin
33'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: C. Protesoni replaces V. Parada
13'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Alaves by T. Martinez
0-1

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Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano
  • Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +117, Rayo Vallecano +275, draw +250
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+120/-130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Alaves: 41.5%
  • Rayo Vallecano: 31.8%
  • Draw: 26.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Alaves 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (12.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano? Prediction & correct score

Alaves is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 41.5%.

The most likely correct score is Alaves 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

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