Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano La Liga match on May 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Rayo Vallecano
2
1
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Estadio Mendizorrotza
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Rayo VallecanoRVC
T. Martinez (13')
Soccer ball icon
S. Camello (73')
Soccer ball icon
R. Nteka (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Alaves
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by R. Nteka, assisted by S. Camello
    2-1
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Pacha (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  3. 88'
    Yellow Card
    N. Tenaglia (Alaves) cautioned
  4. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: A. Ratiu replaces I. Balliu
  5. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: I. Diabate replaces L. Boye
  6. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces J. Guridi
  7. 79'
    Yellow Card
    A. Rebbach (Alaves) cautioned
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: D. Suarez replaces P. Ibanez
  9. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by S. Camello, assisted by P. Ciss
    1-1
  10. 69'
    Yellow Card
    A. Perez (Alaves) cautioned
  11. 64'
    Yellow Card
    P. Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  12. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: P. Ciss replaces A. Mumin
  13. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Alemao replaces O. Valentin
  14. 54'
    Yellow Card
    S. Camello (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: J. de Frutos replaces A. Garcia
  16. 38'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: S. Camello replaces C. Martin
  17. 33'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: C. Protesoni replaces V. Parada
  18. 13'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by T. Martinez
    0-1

Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano
  • Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +117, Rayo Vallecano +275, draw +250
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+120/-130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Alaves: 41.5%
  • Rayo Vallecano: 31.8%
  • Draw: 26.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Alaves 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (12.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano? Prediction & correct score

Alaves is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 41.5%.

The most likely correct score is Alaves 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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