Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves La Liga match on January 18, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Alaves
0
1
Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico Madrid
Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico MadridATM
Score Summary
AlavesALA
A. Sorloth (48')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Atletico Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Alaves
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Molina replaces A. Sorloth
  2. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Manas replaces A. Blanco
  3. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: R. Le Normand replaces J. Cardoso
  4. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Rebbach replaces C. Alena
  5. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Griezmann replaces J. Alvarez
  6. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: Koke replaces G. Simeone
  7. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Baena replaces T. Almada
  8. 55'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces P. Ibanez
  9. 55'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: L. Boye replaces T. Martinez
  10. 54'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: D. Suarez replaces J. Guridi
  11. 48'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by P. Barrios
    0-1
  12. 27'
    Yellow Card
    J. Cardoso (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  13. 6'
    Yellow Card
    P. Ibanez (Alaves) cautioned

Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves
  • Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
  • Time: 10:15 AM ET
  • Venue: Metropolitano Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Atletico Madrid -275, Alaves +850, draw +410
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-112/-108)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Atletico Madrid: 66.1%
  • Alaves: 13.0%
  • Draw: 20.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves (13.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 66.1%.

The most likely correct score is Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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