Prediction markets are booming but sportsbooks still dominate NFL betting

Prediction markets may be one of the biggest stories in US betting, but traditional sportsbooks are still expected to dominate NFL wagering this season.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) projects $31.7 billion in regulated sportsbook NFL handle in 2026, compared with $8.4 billion in NFL handle analog from sports prediction markets.

That represents a 79% to 21% split in projected combined NFL wagering activity.

For all the attention and soaring valuations surrounding prediction markets, EKG's estimates show how much larger the established sportsbook market remains.

NFL sportsbook betting is still growing

EKG expects NFL sportsbook handle to increase by around 8% year over year.

That is ahead of the roughly 5% underlying handle growth, excluding the World Cup, that EKG is currently seeing across the broader online sports betting market.

The firm partly attributes that stronger NFL outlook to an increasingly aggressive customer acquisition environment around football.

Sportsbooks are spending heavily to win NFL bettors

EKG said bet365 entered the season with the richest sportsbook welcome offer, it observed, at a $365 headline value, while FanDuel and Fanatics carried headline offers of $350. Dimers independently verified and published the same headline offers.

DraftKings, with a $200 headline offer, has said it could increase spending if favorable acquisition economics continue.

FanDuel has also indicated it will be more generous with bonuses throughout the season via its new Rewards Club program.

That promotional firepower remains one advantage for established sportsbooks as they compete for NFL customers.

While sportsbooks still dominate projected NFL wagering volume, prediction markets outpaced them in NFL Week 1 app downloads, underlining how aggressively the newer platforms are competing for customers.

Prediction markets are already a meaningful second channel

An estimated 21% share of combined NFL wagering activity would still represent a significant presence for prediction markets.

EKG noted that the sector has a smaller installed customer base and less ability to offer aggressive bonuses than traditional sportsbooks, citing a $25 Kalshi offer at the time of its analysis.

But prediction markets are competing aggressively in other areas.

According to EKG's channel checks, prediction-market operators are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and paid search.

That creates some upside risk to EKG's current $8.4 billion prediction-market forecast.

The 21% prediction market forecast could prove conservative

EKG acknowledged that continued customer acquisition could make its prediction-market forecast appear low by the end of the NFL season.

For bettors and the wider industry, that makes the current split worth watching.

Prediction markets have quickly developed into another major channel for NFL wagering, but EKG's projections suggest they are not yet close to replacing sportsbooks.

For every dollar of projected NFL wagering activity attributed to prediction markets this season, traditional sportsbooks are expected to account for almost four.