Leeds vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Leeds vs. Burnley Premier League match on May 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.

Start your FREE 3-day trial of Dimers Pro

FINAL

PREMIER LEAGUE

FINAL

PREMIER LEAGUE

Burnley

May 1, 3:00 PM ET Elland Road

Leeds

May 1, 3:00 PM ET Elland Road

LeedsLU

Score Summary

BurnleyBUR

A. Stach (8')

N. Okafor (52')

D. Calvert-Lewin (56')

L. Tchaouna (71')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

Leeds
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
Burnley
0.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'

Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces J. Bogle

90'

Substitution for Leeds: W. Gnonto replaces D. Calvert-Lewin

88'

H. Mejbri (Burnley) cautioned

76'

Substitution for Burnley: Z. Amdouni replaces B. Humphreys

76'

Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces Z. Flemming

75'

E. Ampadu (Leeds) cautioned

72'

Substitution for Leeds: B. Aaronson replaces A. Stach

72'

Substitution for Leeds: S. Longstaff replaces A. Tanaka

71'

Goal scored for Burnley by L. Tchaouna, assisted by J. Anthony

1-3

68'

VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside

65'

Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces N. Okafor

65'

Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces Q. Hartman

65'

Substitution for Burnley: Florentino replaces J. Ward-Prowse

56'

Goal scored for Leeds by D. Calvert-Lewin

0-3

54'

Substitution for Burnley: H. Mejbri replaces J. Laurent

52'

Goal scored for Leeds by N. Okafor, assisted by J. Bogle

0-2

48'

D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) cautioned

40'

J. Rodon (Leeds) cautioned

37'

L. Tchaouna (Burnley) cautioned

35'

B. Humphreys (Burnley) cautioned

27'

P. Struijk (Leeds) cautioned

Goal scored for Leeds by A. Stach, assisted by J. Bijol

0-1

Leeds vs. Burnley: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

Teams: Leeds vs. Burnley
Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Elland Road

Current betting odds

Moneyline: Leeds -250, Burnley +750, draw +400
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-135/+110)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

Leeds: 64.9%
Burnley: 14.0%
Draw: 21.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Leeds 1-0 Burnley (13.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

Today's best bets
Moneyline probabilities
Total goals probabilities
Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with a free 3-day trial—cancel anytime.

Who will win Leeds vs. Burnley? Prediction & correct score

Leeds is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 64.9%.

The most likely correct score is Leeds 1-0 Burnley.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Leeds vs. Burnley, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.