Burnley vs. Brighton Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Burnley vs. Brighton Premier League match on April 11, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Brighton
2
0
Apr 11, 10:00 AM ET Turf Moor
Burnley
Apr 11, 10:00 AM ET Turf Moor
BurnleyBUR
Score Summary
BrightonBHA
M. Wieffer (43')
Soccer ball icon
M. Wieffer (89')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Burnley
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Brighton
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
89'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Brighton by M. Wieffer, assisted by Y. Ayari
2-0
88'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: J. Veltman replaces D. Gomez
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces Florentino
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces Q. Hartman
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: K. Walker replaces B. Humphreys
80'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: K. Mitoma replaces Y. Minteh
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: G. Rutter replaces D. Welbeck
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: C. Baleba replaces J. Hinshelwood
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: M. Tresor Ndayishimiye replaces M. Edwards
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen replaces L. Ugochukwu
60'
Yellow Card
Florentino (Burnley) cautioned
50'
VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
48'
Yellow Card
J. P. van Hecke (Brighton) cautioned
43'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Brighton by M. Wieffer, assisted by P. Gross
1-0
30'
Yellow Card
M. Esteve (Burnley) cautioned
7'
VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside

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Burnley vs. Brighton: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Burnley vs. Brighton
  • Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Turf Moor

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Burnley +450, Brighton -165, draw +325
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-145/+120)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Burnley: 20.8%
  • Brighton: 57.1%
  • Draw: 22.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Burnley 1-1 Brighton (10.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Burnley vs. Brighton? Prediction & correct score

Brighton is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 57.1%.

The most likely correct score is Burnley 1-1 Brighton.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Burnley vs. Brighton, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.