Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Aston Villa vs. Brighton Premier League match on February 11, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Brighton
0
1
Feb 11, 2:30 PM ET Villa Park
Aston Villa
Feb 11, 2:30 PM ET Villa Park
Aston VillaVIL
Score Summary
BrightonBHA
J. Hinshelwood (o.g.) (86')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Aston Villa
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Brighton
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
86'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Aston Villa by J. Hinshelwood (o.g.)
0-1
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: V. Lindelof replaces Douglas Luiz
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: H. Howell replaces K. Mitoma
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: Y. Minteh replaces D. Gomez
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: C. Kostoulas replaces D. Welbeck
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: T. Abraham replaces O. Watkins
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Alysson replaces A. Onana
61'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: O. Boscagli replaces J. P. van Hecke
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Bailey replaces J. Sancho
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: R. Barkley replaces E. Buendia
50'
Yellow Card
M. Rogers (Aston Villa) cautioned
41'
Yellow Card
E. Martinez (Aston Villa) cautioned
41'
Yellow Card
J. P. van Hecke (Brighton) cautioned
23'
Yellow Card
J. Veltman (Brighton) cautioned
22'
Substitution
Substitution for Brighton: J. Milner replaces C. Baleba
2'
Yellow Card
C. Baleba (Brighton) cautioned

Aston Villa vs. Brighton: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Aston Villa vs. Brighton
  • Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
  • Time: 2:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Villa Park

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Aston Villa +105, Brighton +270, draw +275
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-145/+128)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Aston Villa: 47.2%
  • Brighton: 29.0%
  • Draw: 23.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton (11.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Aston Villa vs. Brighton? Prediction & correct score

Aston Villa is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.2%.

The most likely correct score is Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

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