California vs. SMU prediction favors Southern Methodist to win in college football Week 8 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of California vs. SMU, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Southern Methodist a 91.1% chance of beating California. Our predicted final score has Southern Methodist winning 36-18. According to our model, Southern Methodist (-16.5) has a 56.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 54.5 points has a 53.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: California +16.5 (+130) / SMU -16.5 (-138)
• Moneyline: California +852, SMU -953
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-115/+111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: California +16.5 @ 44¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Southern Methodist @ 91¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 54.5 @ 53¢ via Novig

According to our best college football bets, the top play to make on this game is Southern Methodist to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between SMU and California at Gerald J. Ford Stadium is scheduled to start at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: California vs. Southern Methodist
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00 AM PT
• Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Southern Methodist, with a 91.1% win probability, will likely beat California in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.