Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss prediction favors Arkansas State to win in college football Week 7 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Arkansas State a 73.3% chance of beating Southern Miss. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 35-26. According to our model, Arkansas State (-6.5) has a 55.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 62.5 points has a 51.9% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Arkansas State -6.5 (-110) / Southern Miss +6.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Arkansas State -240, Southern Miss +205
• Total: Over/Under 62.5 (-105/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Arkansas State -6.5 @ -110 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Arkansas State @ -240 via bet365
• Total: Under 62.5 @ -105 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Arkansas State -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Southern Miss and Arkansas State at M.M. Roberts Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: M.M. Roberts Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Arkansas State, with a 73.3% win probability, will likely beat Southern Miss in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.