Stars vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Stars vs. Sabres in the NHL on Thursday, October 8, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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LIVE
2nd 5:01
NHL
Updating LIVE
LIVE
2nd 5:01
Updating LIVE
NHL sport icon
NHL
Stars
3
:
0
KeyBank Center
Sabres
KeyBank Center
TEAM123T
Stars
1 2 3
Sabres
0 0 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Stars
    96%
  • Sabres
    4%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Stars
1 2 3
Sabres
0 0 0
P2 14:59 Shot on goal by Noah Ostlund saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 14:53 Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
P2 14:31 Shot on goal by Olen Zellweger saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 13:57 Goal scored by Mikko Rantanen
P2 12:06 Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P2 10:46 Esa Lindell shot blocked by Tage Thompson
P2 07:44 Shot on goal by Konsta Helenius saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 04:22 Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Louis Crevier
P2 01:13 Power play - Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 19:43 Shot missed by Radek Faksa
P1 19:29 Justin Danforth shot blocked by Oskar Back
P1 17:30 Tage Thompson shot blocked by Thomas Harley
P1 17:16 Owen Power shot blocked by Sam Steel
P1 16:54 Shot missed by Thomas Harley
P1 16:09 Shot missed by Jamie Benn
P1 13:13 Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Jake Oettinger
P1 11:28 Ryan McLeod shot blocked by Esa Lindell
P1 09:49 Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 09:22 Shot missed by Jack Quinn
P1 08:42 Shot missed by Roope Hintz
Play by Play
  1. P2 14:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Ostlund saved by Jake Oettinger
  2. P2 14:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
  3. P2 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Olen Zellweger saved by Jake Oettinger
  4. P2 14:21
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  5. P2 14:15
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  6. P2 14:09
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  7. P2 14:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  8. P2 13:57
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  9. P2 13:57
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Mikko Rantanen
    3-0
  10. P2 12:29
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in neutral zone
  11. P2 12:29
    Stoppage - Offside
  12. P2 12:07
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  13. P2 12:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tage Thompson
  14. P2 11:53
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Sam Steel in defensive zone
  15. P2 11:19
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  16. P2 10:46
    SHOT
    Esa Lindell shot blocked by Tage Thompson
  17. P2 09:36
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  18. P2 08:47
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  19. P2 08:47
    Stoppage - Offside
  20. P2 07:45
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Arttu Hyry in offensive zone
  21. P2 07:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  22. P2 07:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Konsta Helenius saved by Jake Oettinger
  23. P2 05:13
    Beck Malenstyn credited with hit on Mikko Rantanen in defensive zone
  24. P2 04:22
    SHOT
    Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Louis Crevier
  25. P2 04:18
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Jiri Kulich in offensive zone
  26. P2 04:18
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  27. P2 02:51
    Shorthanded - Sam Steel won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  28. P2 02:51
    Stoppage - Icing
  29. P2 01:51
    Stars won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  30. P2 01:50
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Oskar Back in offensive zone
  31. P2 01:47
    Delayed penalty (against the Stars)
  32. P2 01:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  33. P2 00:11
    Power play - Mikko Rantanen won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  34. P2 00:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  35. P2 00:02
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  36. P2 00:00
    Power play - Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  37. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  38. P1 19:50
    Power play - Mikko Rantanen won faceoff against Justin Danforth in offensive zone
  39. P1 19:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Radek Faksa
  40. P1 19:29
    SHOT
    Justin Danforth shot blocked by Oskar Back
  41. P1 17:30
    SHOT
    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Thomas Harley
  42. P1 17:16
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by Sam Steel
  43. P1 16:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Harley
  44. P1 16:53
    Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Jiri Kulich in offensive zone
  45. P1 16:53
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  46. P1 16:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jamie Benn
  47. P1 13:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Jake Oettinger
  48. P1 11:44
    Justin Hryckowian credited with hit on Mattias Samuelsson in offensive zone
  49. P1 11:28
    SHOT
    Ryan McLeod shot blocked by Esa Lindell
  50. P1 11:22
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Arttu Hyry in offensive zone
  51. P1 10:10
    Peyton Krebs credited with hit on Tyler Myers in offensive zone
  52. P1 10:00
    Jiri Kulich won faceoff against Oskar Back in offensive zone
  53. P1 09:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  54. P1 09:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  55. P1 09:03
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  56. P1 08:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Roope Hintz
  57. P1 08:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  58. P1 08:23
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  59. P1 08:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  60. P1 07:34
    SHOT
    Jiri Kulich shot blocked by teammate
  61. P1 07:34
    Giveaway by Tyler Myers in defensive zone
  62. P1 06:37
    Giveaway by Konsta Helenius in offensive zone
  63. P1 06:23
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
  64. P1 05:04
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  65. P1 05:04
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  66. P1 04:43
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  67. P1 04:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  68. P1 03:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Jake Oettinger
  69. P1 02:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tyler Seguin
  70. P1 02:19
    SHOT
    Louis Crevier shot blocked by Arttu Hyry
  71. P1 01:34
    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin in defensive zone
  72. P1 01:30
    Josh Doan credited with hit on Thomas Harley in neutral zone
  73. P1 01:05
    Justin Danforth credited with hit on Thomas Harley in offensive zone
  74. P1 01:04
    Beck Malenstyn credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in offensive zone
  75. P1 00:52
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  76. P1 00:50
    SHOT
    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  77. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Stars
STATS
Sabres
14Shots on Goal11
68% Faceoff Win % 31%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
2Penalty Infraction Mins4
19Hits15
10 Shots Blocked 5
18Giveaways10
StarsDAL
SabresBUF
14Shots on Goal11
68% Faceoff Win % 31%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
2Penalty Infraction Mins4
19Hits15
10 Shots Blocked 5
18Giveaways10

Stars vs. Sabres prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Thursday

  • Teams: Dallas Stars vs. Buffalo Sabres
  • Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
  • Puck drop: 7:00PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Stars (-1.5, +225), Sabres (+1.5, -235)
  • Moneyline: Stars -117, Sabres +104
  • Total (Over/Under): 6 goals (-111/-105)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Stars: 49.6%
  • Sabres: 50.4%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Stars vs. Sabres player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Wyatt Johnston, Stars: 38.8%
  • Jason Robertson, Stars: 35.6%
  • Tage Thompson, Sabres: 39.3%
  • Josh Doan, Sabres: 28.0%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Stars a win probability of 49.6%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 50.4%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Stars in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Thursday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

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