Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Islanders vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on March 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Islanders
3
1
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
TEAM123T
Islanders
2 1 0 3
Maple Leafs
0 1 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Islanders
    100%
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Islanders
2 1 0 3
Maple Leafs
0 1 0 1
P3 19:58 William Nylander shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
P3 19:55 Max Domi shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
P3 18:24 Power play - Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by William Nylander
P3 17:42 Power play - Emil Heineman shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:37 Power play - Shot on goal by Emil Heineman saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:28 Power play - Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
P3 16:34 Power play - Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
P3 16:04 Power play - Shot missed by Anders Lee
P3 15:18 Power play - Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
P3 14:12 Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 12:22 Shot missed by Ryan Pulock
P3 10:36 Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Anders Lee
P3 08:46 Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 08:42 Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
P3 07:14 Shot missed by Kyle MacLean
P3 06:22 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 05:46 Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:28 Bo Horvat shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 03:53 Shot missed by Scott Mayfield
P3 02:53 Shot missed by Jacob Quillan
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:58
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  3. P3 19:55
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  4. P3 18:56
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Max Domi in offensive zone
  5. P3 18:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by William Nylander
  6. P3 17:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Emil Heineman shot blocked by teammate
  7. P3 17:37
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Emil Heineman saved by Joseph Woll
  8. P3 17:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
  9. P3 16:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
  10. P3 16:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Anders Lee
  11. P3 15:39
    Shorthanded - Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Emil Heineman in neutral zone
  12. P3 15:39
    Stoppage
  13. P3 15:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
  14. P3 14:57
    Shorthanded - Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  15. P3 14:14
    Islanders won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  16. P3 14:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
  17. P3 12:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  18. P3 12:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Pulock
  19. P3 12:18
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  20. P3 10:36
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Anders Lee
  21. P3 09:40
    Max Domi won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  22. P3 09:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  23. P3 09:27
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
  24. P3 09:08
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Tony DeAngelo in offensive zone
  25. P3 08:46
    SHOT
    Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  26. P3 08:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
  27. P3 08:13
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in neutral zone
  28. P3 07:50
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
  29. P3 07:45
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
  30. P3 07:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  31. P3 07:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kyle MacLean
  32. P3 06:53
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
  33. P3 06:53
    Stoppage - Icing
  34. P3 06:45
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  35. P3 06:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
  36. P3 05:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
  37. P3 05:30
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  38. P3 05:28
    SHOT
    Bo Horvat shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  39. P3 05:24
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  40. P3 04:21
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  41. P3 03:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Mayfield
  42. P3 03:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  43. P3 03:33
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  44. P3 02:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jacob Quillan
  45. P3 02:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calle Jarnkrok saved by Ilya Sorokin
  46. P3 02:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  47. P3 02:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Ilya Sorokin
  48. P3 02:29
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in defensive zone
  49. P3 02:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Ilya Sorokin
  50. P3 01:41
    Brayden Schenn won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  51. P3 01:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  52. P3 01:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Heineman
  53. P3 00:29
    Bo Groulx credited with hit on Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
  54. P3 00:14
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
  55. P3 00:14
    Stoppage - Icing
  56. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  57. P2 19:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  58. P2 19:32
    Stoppage - Icing
  59. P2 18:28
    Anders Lee won faceoff against Bo Groulx in defensive zone
  60. P2 18:26
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Philippe Myers
  61. P2 17:32
    Power play - Giveaway by Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  62. P2 17:20
    Penalty to Morgan Rielly 5 minutes for Fighting
  63. P2 17:12
    Penalty to Morgan Rielly 2 minutes for Cross Checking
  64. P2 17:10
    SHOT
    Casey Cizikas shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
  65. P2 16:41
    SHOT
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  66. P2 16:09
    Power play - Giveaway by Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
  67. P2 14:57
    Shorthanded - Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  68. P2 14:57
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  69. P2 14:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Ilya Sorokin
  70. P2 14:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  71. P2 14:39
    Islanders won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  72. P2 14:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  73. P2 14:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Ilya Sorokin
  74. P2 13:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jacob Quillan
  75. P2 12:23
    Brayden Schenn won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  76. P2 11:57
    Max Domi won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in neutral zone
  77. P2 11:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
  78. P2 11:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
  79. P2 10:53
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  80. P2 10:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Ilya Sorokin
  81. P2 10:47
    Islanders won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  82. P2 10:47
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  83. P2 10:09
    Max Domi won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in offensive zone
  84. P2 09:52
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  85. P2 08:31
    Ryan Pulock credited with hit on Matias Maccelli in defensive zone
  86. P2 08:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  87. P2 07:40
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  88. P2 07:27
    Islanders won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  89. P2 07:25
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  90. P2 06:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  91. P2 05:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
  92. P2 05:04
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Maple Leafs in offensive zone
  93. P2 05:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ondrej Palat saved by Joseph Woll
  94. P2 04:40
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
  95. P2 04:40
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Steven Lorentz
    2-1
  96. P2 03:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Calum Ritchie shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  97. P2 02:56
    Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
  98. P2 02:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
  99. P2 02:13
    Penalty to Dakota Joshua 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Simon Holmstrom)
  100. P2 02:11
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Joseph Woll
  101. P2 01:47
    Shorthanded - Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Dakota Joshua in defensive zone
  102. P2 01:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  103. P2 01:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bo Horvat
  104. P2 00:17
    SHOT
    Bo Groulx shot blocked by Carson Soucy
  105. P2 00:00
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  106. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  107. P1 19:59
    Stoppage - Icing
  108. P1 19:48
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  109. P1 19:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Ilya Sorokin
  110. P1 19:19
    Stoppage - Icing
  111. P1 18:58
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
  112. P1 18:46
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  113. P1 18:27
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in offensive zone
  114. P1 18:27
    Stoppage - Icing
  115. P1 17:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Ilya Sorokin
  116. P1 16:20
    Giveaway by Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
  117. P1 16:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Joseph Woll
  118. P1 16:13
    Stoppage - High Stick
  119. P1 15:59
    Islanders won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  120. P1 15:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  121. P1 15:10
    SHOT
    Ondrej Palat shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  122. P1 15:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ondrej Palat
  123. P1 14:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Casey Cizikas
  124. P1 13:15
    Anders Lee credited with hit on Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
  125. P1 13:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
  126. P1 13:04
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
  127. P1 12:53
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  128. P1 12:53
    Stoppage - Icing
  129. P1 12:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Ilya Sorokin
  130. P1 11:37
    Brayden Schenn won faceoff against Bo Groulx in neutral zone
  131. P1 11:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Casey Cizikas
  132. P1 11:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Carson Soucy
  133. P1 11:07
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Maple Leafs in offensive zone
  134. P1 10:54
    Max Domi won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  135. P1 10:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  136. P1 10:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  137. P1 10:04
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  138. P1 10:02
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  139. P1 09:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  140. P1 09:43
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  141. P1 09:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Joseph Woll
  142. P1 09:34
    Islanders won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  143. P1 09:16
    Shorthanded - Brayden Schenn won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  144. P1 09:00
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Max Domi
  145. P1 07:42
    Power play - Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
  146. P1 07:26
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
  147. P1 07:18
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  148. P1 07:18
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  149. P1 05:48
    Giveaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
  150. P1 05:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Ilya Sorokin
  151. P1 04:15
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Brayden Schenn assisted by Calum Ritchie and Mathew Barzal
    1-0
  152. P1 03:30
    Power play - Bo Horvat won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
  153. P1 03:08
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Dakota Joshua in defensive zone
  154. P1 03:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Ilya Sorokin
  155. P1 02:38
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in defensive zone
  156. P1 02:16
    SHOT
    Scott Mayfield shot blocked by Max Domi
  157. P1 01:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  158. P1 01:44
    Brayden Schenn won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  159. P1 01:06
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by Bo Horvat
  160. P1 00:59
    Giveaway by Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  161. P1 00:36
    Stoppage - High Stick
  162. P1 00:21
    Giveaway by Anders Lee in defensive zone
  163. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Islanders
STATS
Maple Leafs
34Shots on Goal27
52% Faceoff Win % 49%
6/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins17
9Hits20
8 Shots Blocked 12
11Giveaways13
IslandersNYI
Maple LeafsTOR
34Shots on Goal27
52% Faceoff Win % 49%
6/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins17
9Hits20
8 Shots Blocked 12
11Giveaways13

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Islanders vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Islanders favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Islanders -143, Maple Leafs 40¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Islanders: 53%
  • Maple Leafs: 47%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Islanders a win probability of 53%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 47%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Islanders are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Islanders vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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