Lightning vs. Wild Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Wild NHL game on March 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Lightning
1
5
Grand Casino Arena
Wild
Grand Casino Arena
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 1 0 1
Wild
1 2 2 5
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    0%
  • Wild
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 1 0 1
Wild
1 2 2 5
P3 19:36 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:57 Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Jake Middleton
P3 18:47 Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Filip Gustavsson
P3 17:35 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Filip Gustavsson
P3 16:53 Shot on goal by Scott Sabourin saved by Filip Gustavsson
P3 16:38 Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
P3 16:14 Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
P3 13:46 Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 12:20 Shot missed by Brock Faber
P3 12:12 Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 10:25 Shot missed by Mats Zuccarello
P3 09:32 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
P3 09:30 Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 07:29 Scott Sabourin shot blocked by Jake Middleton
P3 06:35 Shot on goal by Kirill Kaprizov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 05:43 Shot on goal by Conor Geekie saved by Filip Gustavsson
P3 04:50 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake Middleton
P3 04:29 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
P3 02:57 Power play - Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 02:37 Power play - Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  3. P3 19:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  4. P3 18:57
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Jake Middleton
  5. P3 18:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Filip Gustavsson
  6. P3 17:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Filip Gustavsson
  7. P3 16:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Sabourin saved by Filip Gustavsson
  8. P3 16:41
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Danila Yurov in neutral zone
  9. P3 16:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
  10. P3 16:18
    Stoppage - Icing
  11. P3 16:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
  12. P3 15:24
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in offensive zone
  13. P3 15:24
    Stoppage - Icing
  14. P3 13:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  15. P3 12:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brock Faber
  16. P3 12:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  17. P3 10:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mats Zuccarello
  18. P3 09:32
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
  19. P3 09:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  20. P3 08:50
    Lightning won faceoff against Wild in neutral zone
  21. P3 08:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  22. P3 07:32
    Danila Yurov won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  23. P3 07:29
    SHOT
    Scott Sabourin shot blocked by Jake Middleton
  24. P3 06:53
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Vincent Hinostroza in neutral zone
  25. P3 06:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirill Kaprizov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  26. P3 06:28
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  27. P3 06:28
    Stoppage - Icing
  28. P3 05:58
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  29. P3 05:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Conor Geekie saved by Filip Gustavsson
  30. P3 04:50
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake Middleton
  31. P3 04:29
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
  32. P3 04:01
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Danila Yurov in defensive zone
  33. P3 04:01
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  34. P3 02:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  35. P3 02:37
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
  36. P3 02:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  37. P3 01:35
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Wild in neutral zone
  38. P3 01:35
    Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Misconduct
  39. P3 00:37
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in defensive zone
  40. P3 00:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  41. P3 00:00
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  42. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  43. P2 19:54
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
  44. P2 19:33
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
  45. P2 19:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 18:19
    Lightning won faceoff against Wild in neutral zone
  47. P2 18:19
    Stoppage - Offside
  48. P2 17:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  49. P2 17:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Filip Gustavsson
  50. P2 17:15
    Nico Sturm won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  51. P2 17:15
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  52. P2 17:10
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in neutral zone
  53. P2 17:10
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Yakov Trenin assisted by Mats Zuccarello
    1-3
  54. P2 15:42
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan Hartman in defensive zone
  55. P2 15:42
    Stoppage - Icing
  56. P2 15:07
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  57. P2 14:24
    Stoppage - Icing
  58. P2 13:40
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
  59. P2 11:41
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Ryan Hartman in defensive zone
  60. P2 11:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  61. P2 10:52
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Filip Gustavsson
  62. P2 10:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Filip Gustavsson
  63. P2 09:33
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in offensive zone
  64. P2 08:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Robby Fabbri saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  65. P2 08:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jonas Brodin
  66. P2 08:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Robby Fabbri saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  67. P2 06:05
    SHOT
    Power play - Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  68. P2 05:05
    Power play - Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  69. P2 04:59
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  70. P2 04:24
    Power play - Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  71. P2 03:10
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in defensive zone
  72. P2 02:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  73. P2 02:08
    Lightning won faceoff against Wild in neutral zone
  74. P2 00:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brock Faber saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  75. P2 00:23
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  76. P2 00:23
    Stoppage - Icing
  77. P2 00:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Filip Gustavsson
  78. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  79. P1 19:32
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in defensive zone
  80. P1 19:32
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  81. P1 19:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Marcus Johansson
  82. P1 18:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Conor Geekie saved by Filip Gustavsson
  83. P1 18:08
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Wild in offensive zone
  84. P1 18:08
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  85. P1 17:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Vladimir Tarasenko
  86. P1 16:47
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  87. P1 16:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  88. P1 16:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Filip Gustavsson
  89. P1 15:50
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  90. P1 15:27
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Filip Gustavsson
  91. P1 15:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Filip Gustavsson
  92. P1 15:05
    Penalty to Jonas Brodin 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Brandon Hagel)
  93. P1 15:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Filip Gustavsson
  94. P1 14:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Filip Gustavsson
  95. P1 13:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Middleton saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  96. P1 13:31
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Danila Yurov in defensive zone
  97. P1 13:31
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  98. P1 13:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  99. P1 12:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Filip Gustavsson
  100. P1 12:42
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Conor Geekie in defensive zone
  101. P1 12:42
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  102. P1 12:07
    SHOT
    Jared Spurgeon shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  103. P1 11:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Robby Fabbri
  104. P1 11:20
    Stoppage - Icing
  105. P1 11:01
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Danila Yurov in defensive zone
  106. P1 10:50
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by teammate
  107. P1 09:36
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  108. P1 09:36
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  109. P1 09:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Marcus Johansson
  110. P1 08:57
    SHOT
    Brock Faber shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  111. P1 08:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Filip Gustavsson
  112. P1 07:21
    SHOT
    Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  113. P1 06:07
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan Hartman in defensive zone
  114. P1 05:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Kirill Kaprizov
  115. P1 05:10
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in defensive zone
  116. P1 04:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  117. P1 03:46
    Danila Yurov won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  118. P1 03:46
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brock Faber assisted by Marcus Johansson and Matt Boldy
    0-1
  119. P1 02:48
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Nico Sturm in neutral zone
  120. P1 02:48
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  121. P1 01:58
    Mats Zuccarello won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  122. P1 01:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  123. P1 01:52
    Stoppage - High Stick
  124. P1 01:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Filip Gustavsson
  125. P1 01:23
    Stoppage - Icing
  126. P1 01:02
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Danila Yurov in defensive zone
  127. P1 00:37
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  128. P1 00:31
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Brock Faber in offensive zone
  129. P1 00:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  130. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Wild
25Shots on Goal22
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 5/1
20Penalty Infraction Mins8
25Hits22
13 Shots Blocked 16
9Giveaways11
LightningTB
WildMIN
25Shots on Goal22
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 5/1
20Penalty Infraction Mins8
25Hits22
13 Shots Blocked 16
9Giveaways11

Lightning vs. Wild: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Wild
  • Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Grand Casino Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -140, Wild +122

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 55%
  • Wild: 45%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 55%, while the Wild have a win probability of 45%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Wild in the NHL game at Grand Casino Arena on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Wild predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.