Hawks vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Hawks vs. Grizzlies NBA game on January 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Hawks
124
122
FedExForum
Grizzlies
FedExForum
TEAM1234T
Hawks
31 31 62 0 124
Grizzlies
32 23 66 1 122
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Hawks
    52%
  • Grizzlies
    48%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Hawks
31 31 62 0 124
Grizzlies
32 23 66 1 122
Q4 00:07 Jalen Johnson misses two point stepback jump shot
Q4 00:46 Jalen Johnson makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:02 Jock Landale makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:30 Ja Morant misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:40 Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:20 Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:25 Hawks makes three point jump shot
Q4 5:53 Hawks misses three point jump shot
Q4 6:00 Jaren Jackson Jr. misses two point jump shot
Q4 7:07 Jock Landale makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:05
    Jaylen Wells defensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:07
    Jalen Johnson misses two point stepback jump shot
  4. Q4 00:27
    Luke Kennard defensive rebound
  5. Q4 00:29
    Christian Koloko personal foul (Loose ball) (Jaren Jackson Jr. draws the foul)
  6. Q4 00:29
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  7. Q4 00:30
    Jalen Johnson shooting foul (Jock Landale draws the foul)
  8. Q4 00:30
    Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard, Christian Koloko)
  9. Q4 00:30
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  10. Q4 00:46
    +2
    Jalen Johnson makes two point jump shot
    124-122
  11. Q4 2:02
    +2
    Jock Landale makes two point jump shot
    124-121
  12. Q4 2:11
    Onyeka Okongwu personal foul (Jock Landale draws the foul)
  13. Q4 2:11
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  14. Q4 2:11
    Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Christian Koloko)
  15. Q4 2:28
    Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
  16. Q4 2:30
    Ja Morant misses two point jump shot
  17. Q4 3:03
    Onyeka Okongwu personal foul (Jock Landale draws the foul)
  18. Q4 3:03
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  19. Q4 3:03
    Hawks 60 second timeout
  20. Q4 3:36
    Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
  21. Q4 3:40
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
  22. Q4 3:46
    Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
  23. Q4 3:57
    Jaren Jackson Jr. shooting foul (Jalen Johnson draws the foul)
  24. Q4 3:57
    +1
    Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    124-122
  25. Q4 3:58
    Jalen Johnson offensive rebound
  26. Q4 4:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  27. Q4 4:17
    Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
  28. Q4 4:20
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  29. Q4 4:45
    Grizzlies turnover
  30. Q4 4:57
    John Konchar defensive rebound
  31. Q4 5:25
    +3
    Hawks makes three point jump shot
    124-122
  32. Q4 5:36
    Hawks 60 second timeout
  33. Q4 5:53
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  34. Q4 5:56
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  35. Q4 6:00
    Jaren Jackson Jr. misses two point jump shot
  36. Q4 6:17
    Grizzlies lineup change (Jaren Jackson Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Ja Morant)
  37. Q4 6:41
    Luke Kennard personal foul (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope draws the foul)
  38. Q4 6:41
    Hawks lineup change (Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard)
  39. Q4 7:07
    +2
    Jock Landale makes two point jump shot
    108-105
  40. Q4 7:54
    Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard, Christian Koloko)
  41. Q4 8:06
    +2
    Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes two point running finger roll layup (Jock Landale assists)
    102-103
  42. Q4 8:14
    Jalen Johnson misses two point floating jump shot
  43. Q4 8:23
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  44. Q4 8:47
    Grizzlies personal foul
  45. Q4 8:47
    Vit Krejci technical foul
  46. Q4 8:47
    +1
    Cam Spencer makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    124-121
  47. Q4 9:05
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Vince Williams Jr.)
  48. Q4 9:05
    Hawks personal foul
  49. Q4 9:05
    +1
    Cam Spencer makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    124-121
  50. Q4 9:19
    Ja Morant shooting foul (Vit Krejci draws the foul)
  51. Q4 9:19
    +1
    Vit Krejci makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    105-103
  52. Q4 9:19
    Hawks offensive rebound
  53. Q4 9:19
    +1
    Vit Krejci makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    124-121
  54. Q4 9:19
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Vince Williams Jr., John Konchar, Cedric Coward)
  55. Q4 9:26
    Christian Koloko defensive rebound
  56. Q4 9:28
    Ja Morant misses two point driving layup
  57. Q4 10:00
    Ja Morant personal foul (Luke Kennard draws the foul)
  58. Q4 10:09
    +1
    Jaren Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    108-105
  59. Q4 10:09
    +1
    Jaren Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    124-121
  60. Q4 10:39
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  61. Q4 10:56
    GG Jackson defensive rebound
  62. Q4 11:00
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  63. Q4 11:05
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  64. Q4 11:12
    Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
  65. Q4 11:15
    Luke Kennard misses three point jump shot
  66. Q4 11:25
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    124-121
  67. Q4 11:38
    Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Vit Krejci, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard, Christian Koloko)
  68. Q4 11:41
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  69. Q4 11:52
    Jaren Jackson Jr. personal foul
  70. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  71. Q4 12:00
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, John Konchar, Cedric Coward)
  72. Q4 12:00
    Hawks lineup change (Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Mouhamed Gueye, Luke Kennard)
  73. Q3 00:26
    Grizzlies personal foul
  74. Q3 00:26
    Mouhamed Gueye misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  75. Q3 00:26
    Hawks offensive rebound
  76. Q3 00:26
    +1
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    124-121
  77. Q3 1:10
    Grizzlies defensive rebound
  78. Q3 1:10
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  79. Q3 1:24
    Hawks personal foul
  80. Q3 1:24
    +1
    Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    116-112
  81. Q3 1:24
    +1
    Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    116-112
  82. Q3 1:42
    Jaren Jackson Jr. personal foul (Loose ball) (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
  83. Q3 1:42
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  84. Q3 1:42
    Hawks offensive rebound
  85. Q3 1:53
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    93-93
  86. Q3 2:33
    Grizzlies 60 second timeout
  87. Q3 2:33
    +1
    Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    116-112
  88. Q3 2:33
    Grizzlies lineup change (Jaren Jackson Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Vince Williams Jr.)
  89. Q3 2:46
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    116-112
  90. Q3 3:14
    Luke Kennard personal foul
  91. Q3 3:14
    +1
    Jaylen Wells makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    116-112
  92. Q3 3:24
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    83-86
  93. Q3 3:35
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    97-99
  94. Q3 4:05
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    93-93
  95. Q3 4:24
    +2
    GG Jackson makes two point jump shot
    77-82
  96. Q3 4:56
    +3
    Jaylen Wells makes three point jump shot (GG Jackson assists)
    93-93
  97. Q3 5:04
    Jock Landale defensive rebound
  98. Q3 5:06
    Dyson Daniels misses two point jump shot
  99. Q3 5:28
    Luke Kennard defensive rebound
  100. Q3 5:31
    Cam Spencer misses three point jump shot
  101. Q3 5:42
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    77-77
  102. Q3 5:54
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    77-77
  103. Q3 5:54
    Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Mouhamed Gueye, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard)
  104. Q3 5:54
    +1
    GG Jackson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    77-77
  105. Q3 6:15
    Grizzlies turnover
  106. Q3 6:16
    Cam Spencer misses two point jump shot
  107. Q3 6:53
    Hawks personal foul
  108. Q3 6:53
    Hawks lineup change (Corey Kispert, Dyson Daniels, Mouhamed Gueye, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson)
  109. Q3 7:05
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  110. Q3 7:29
    Ja Morant misses three point pullup jump shot
  111. Q3 8:09
    Cedric Coward defensive rebound
  112. Q3 8:12
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  113. Q3 8:29
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
  114. Q3 9:00
    Hawks offensive rebound
  115. Q3 9:01
    Jalen Johnson misses three point jump shot
  116. Q3 9:10
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    93-93
  117. Q3 9:23
    Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
  118. Q3 9:37
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  119. Q3 9:41
    Cedric Coward defensive rebound
  120. Q3 9:53
    Cedric Coward offensive rebound
  121. Q3 9:57
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  122. Q3 10:06
    Ja Morant shooting foul (Jalen Johnson draws the foul)
  123. Q3 10:06
    +1
    Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    70-64
  124. Q3 10:07
    Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
  125. Q3 10:26
    Hawks turnover
  126. Q3 10:36
    Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
  127. Q3 10:47
    Jalen Johnson personal foul (Ja Morant draws the foul)
  128. Q3 10:53
    John Konchar defensive rebound
  129. Q3 11:17
    Corey Kispert misses three point jump shot
  130. Q2 00:00
    Hawks offensive rebound
  131. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  132. Q3 12:00
    Hawks lineup change (Corey Kispert, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson)
  133. Q2 00:01
    +2
    Ja Morant makes two point jump shot
    62-55
  134. Q2 00:09
    Jock Landale defensive rebound
  135. Q2 00:30
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    62-55
  136. Q2 00:36
    +2
    Jalen Johnson makes two point jump shot
    62-55
  137. Q2 00:54
    +2
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point running pullup jump shot
    62-55
  138. Q2 1:00
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  139. Q2 1:09
    +1
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    62-55
  140. Q2 1:09
    Grizzlies lineup change (Jaren Jackson Jr., Jock Landale, Ja Morant, John Konchar, Cedric Coward)
  141. Q2 1:15
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    62-55
  142. Q2 1:27
    +3
    Onyeka Okongwu makes three point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
    60-55
  143. Q2 1:37
    Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
  144. Q2 1:41
    Dyson Daniels blocks Cedric Coward's two point driving floating jump shot
  145. Q2 2:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  146. Q2 2:17
    Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
  147. Q2 2:28
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  148. Q2 2:33
    Cedric Coward offensive rebound
  149. Q2 2:57
    Grizzlies personal foul
  150. Q2 2:57
    Hawks offensive rebound
  151. Q2 3:07
    Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
  152. Q2 3:08
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  153. Q2 3:14
    Vince Williams Jr. misses three point jump shot
  154. Q2 3:30
    Dyson Daniels misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  155. Q2 3:30
    +1
    Dyson Daniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    56-49
  156. Q2 3:45
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  157. Q2 3:47
    Jaylen Wells misses three point jump shot
  158. Q2 3:59
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  159. Q2 4:25
    Hawks offensive rebound
  160. Q2 4:25
    Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Christian Koloko)
  161. Q2 4:49
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    53-49
  162. Q2 4:57
    Jalen Johnson misses three point jump shot
  163. Q2 5:05
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  164. Q2 5:23
    Grizzlies 60 second timeout
  165. Q2 5:23
    Grizzlies lineup change (Jaren Jackson Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Vince Williams Jr.)
  166. Q2 5:34
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  167. Q2 5:47
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    50-47
  168. Q2 5:47
    +1
    Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    51-47
  169. Q2 6:01
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    48-47
  170. Q2 6:17
    Hawks personal foul
  171. Q2 6:26
    Grizzlies personal foul
  172. Q2 6:26
    Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard, Christian Koloko)
  173. Q2 7:05
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    45-43
  174. Q2 7:08
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  175. Q2 7:14
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  176. Q2 7:41
    Hawks personal foul
  177. Q2 7:41
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    41-42
  178. Q2 7:41
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    41-43
  179. Q2 7:50
    Ja Morant offensive rebound
  180. Q2 7:50
    Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard)
  181. Q2 8:01
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    41-41
  182. Q2 8:03
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  183. Q2 8:08
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  184. Q2 8:09
    Luke Kennard offensive rebound
  185. Q2 8:11
    Vit Krejci offensive rebound
  186. Q2 8:34
    Jock Landale defensive rebound
  187. Q2 8:36
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  188. Q2 8:52
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    39-38
  189. Q2 9:08
    Jalen Johnson offensive rebound
  190. Q2 9:08
    Grizzlies personal foul
  191. Q2 9:08
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jock Landale, Ja Morant, Cedric Coward)
  192. Q2 9:09
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  193. Q2 9:26
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    37-36
  194. Q2 9:39
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jock Landale, Ja Morant, Cedric Coward)
  195. Q2 9:41
    +3
    Hawks makes three point jump shot
    37-34
  196. Q2 9:48
    Grizzlies misses two point jump shot
  197. Q2 9:58
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  198. Q2 10:14
    Grizzlies turnover
  199. Q2 10:28
    Grizzlies defensive rebound
  200. Q2 10:42
    Hawks defensive rebound
  201. Q2 11:10
    Hawks turnover
  202. Q2 11:25
    +2
    Grizzlies makes two point jump shot
    34-34
  203. Q2 11:45
    +3
    Hawks makes three point jump shot
    34-32
  204. Q1 00:00
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  205. Q1 00:00
    Hawks offensive rebound
  206. Q2 12:00
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, John Konchar, Cedric Coward)
  207. Q1 00:19
    Cedric Coward defensive rebound
  208. Q1 00:24
    Grizzlies turnover
  209. Q1 1:07
    +3
    Hawks makes three point jump shot
    31-27
  210. Q1 1:15
    Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
  211. Q1 1:34
    +3
    Hawks makes three point jump shot
    28-27
  212. Q1 2:02
    +2
    Hawks makes two point jump shot
    25-25
  213. Q1 2:27
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    23-25
  214. Q1 2:56
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot
    21-22
  215. Q1 2:58
    Jock Landale offensive rebound
  216. Q1 3:32
    Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound
  217. Q1 3:37
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  218. Q1 3:51
    Grizzlies lineup change (Jaren Jackson Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Vince Williams Jr.)
  219. Q1 3:59
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  220. Q1 4:11
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  221. Q1 4:34
    +3
    Hawks makes three point jump shot
    21-19
  222. Q1 4:45
    Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Mouhamed Gueye, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Luke Kennard)
  223. Q1 5:24
    +3
    Grizzlies makes three point jump shot (Jock Landale assists)
    15-19
  224. Q1 5:56
    Jaylen Wells defensive rebound
  225. Q1 5:58
    Hawks misses two point jump shot
  226. Q1 6:11
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  227. Q1 6:28
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Vince Williams Jr., Jaylen Wells)
  228. Q1 6:28
    +1
    Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    12-14
  229. Q1 6:34
    Grizzlies misses three point jump shot
  230. Q1 6:36
    Cam Spencer offensive rebound
  231. Q1 6:57
    Hawks misses three point jump shot
  232. Q1 7:01
    Corey Kispert defensive rebound
  233. Q1 7:23
    Grizzlies defensive rebound
  234. Q1 7:41
    Hawks personal foul
  235. Q1 7:41
    +1
    Ja Morant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    9-13
  236. Q1 8:09
    Grizzlies lineup change (Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Ja Morant, John Konchar, Jaylen Wells)
  237. Q1 8:09
    Grizzlies lineup change (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Jock Landale, Ja Morant, Jaylen Wells)
  238. Q1 8:21
    +3
    Onyeka Okongwu makes three point jump shot
    6-12
  239. Q1 8:29
    Grizzlies turnover
  240. Q1 8:53
    Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
  241. Q1 9:06
    Hawks 60 second timeout
  242. Q1 9:10
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  243. Q1 9:18
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
  244. Q1 9:40
    Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  245. Q1 9:40
    Hawks offensive rebound
  246. Q1 9:42
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound
  247. Q1 9:55
    +3
    Cedric Coward makes three point jump shot (Ja Morant assists)
    0-7
  248. Q1 10:05
    John Konchar blocks Jalen Johnson's two point driving layup
  249. Q1 10:15
    Hawks defensive rebound
  250. Q1 10:26
    Grizzlies offensive rebound
  251. Q1 10:27
    Jaylen Wells misses two point bank jump shot
  252. Q1 10:31
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  253. Q1 10:40
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  254. Q1 11:14
    +2
    John Konchar makes two point running finger roll layup
    0-4
  255. Q1 11:40
    +2
    Jaylen Wells makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
    0-2
  256. Q1 11:44
    Jaren Jackson Jr. misses three point jump shot
  257. Q1 12:00
    Hawks lineup change (Corey Kispert, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson)
  258. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Hawks
PosPlayerPts
Grizzlies
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Hawks vs. Grizzlies: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Hawks vs. Grizzlies
  • Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: FedExForum

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Grizzlies favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 241
  • Moneyline Odds: Hawks +105, Grizzlies -118

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Hawks: 45%
  • Grizzlies: 55%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Hawks 118-119 Grizzlies.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Hawks a win probability of 45%, while the Grizzlies have a win probability of 55%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Grizzlies are more likely to beat the Hawks in the NBA game at FedExForum on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Hawks vs. Grizzlies predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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