Pacers vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pacers vs. Celtics NBA game on January 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Pacers
104
119
TD Garden
Celtics
TD Garden
TEAM1234T
Pacers
20 26 36 22 104
Celtics
30 36 30 23 119
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pacers
    <1%
  • Celtics
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Pacers
20 26 36 22 104
Celtics
30 36 30 23 119
Q4 00:00 Isaiah Jackson misses three point pullup jump shot
Q4 00:43 Celtics makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:13 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:29 Pacers misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:39 Celtics makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:56 Pacers makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:35 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:52 Ben Sheppard misses three point fadeaway jump shot
Q4 4:15 Derrick White makes two point driving hook shot
Q4 4:40 Pacers misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Isaiah Jackson misses three point pullup jump shot
  2. Q4 00:05
    Celtics turnover
  3. Q4 00:43
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    104-119
  4. Q4 1:12
    Pacers defensive rebound
  5. Q4 1:13
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  6. Q4 1:29
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  7. Q4 1:30
    Kam Jones offensive rebound
  8. Q4 2:26
    +1
    Ben Sheppard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-119
  9. Q4 2:26
    Celtics lineup change (Hugo Gonzalez, Amari Williams, Jordan Walsh, Ron Harper Jr., Baylor Scheierman)
  10. Q4 2:39
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    104-119
  11. Q4 2:56
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    104-119
  12. Q4 3:23
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  13. Q4 3:23
    Celtics lineup change (Hugo Gonzalez, Amari Williams, Jordan Walsh, Payton Pritchard, Baylor Scheierman)
  14. Q4 3:23
    Kam Jones turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  15. Q4 3:35
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  16. Q4 3:51
    Pacers turnover
  17. Q4 3:52
    Ben Sheppard misses three point fadeaway jump shot
  18. Q4 4:15
    Pacers 60 second timeout
  19. Q4 4:15
    +2
    Derrick White makes two point driving hook shot
    104-119
  20. Q4 4:15
    Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Baylor Scheierman)
  21. Q4 4:38
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  22. Q4 4:40
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  23. Q4 4:52
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    104-119
  24. Q4 5:01
    Andrew Nembhard misses three point jump shot
  25. Q4 5:20
    Pacers personal foul
  26. Q4 5:20
    Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Andrew Nembhard, Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam)
  27. Q4 5:22
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  28. Q4 5:57
    +1
    Micah Potter makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    99-117
  29. Q4 5:57
    +1
    Micah Potter makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    99-117
  30. Q4 6:23
    Celtics offensive rebound
  31. Q4 6:24
    Celtics turnover
  32. Q4 6:48
    Ben Sheppard misses three point jump shot
  33. Q4 6:49
    Johnny Furphy offensive rebound
  34. Q4 7:09
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown)
  35. Q4 7:09
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  36. Q4 7:09
    Pacers lineup change (Johnny Furphy, Micah Potter, Ben Sheppard, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam)
  37. Q4 7:12
    Jaylen Brown misses two point jump shot
  38. Q4 7:24
    Pacers offensive rebound
  39. Q4 7:24
    Pascal Siakam misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  40. Q4 7:44
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  41. Q4 7:47
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  42. Q4 8:21
    +3
    Pascal Siakam makes three point jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)
    99-117
  43. Q4 8:26
    Neemias Queta turnover
  44. Q4 8:43
    +3
    Pacers makes three point jump shot
    99-117
  45. Q4 9:01
    Sam Hauser defensive rebound
  46. Q4 9:05
    Andrew Nembhard offensive rebound
  47. Q4 9:25
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Jaylen Brown, Anfernee Simons)
  48. Q4 9:44
    Luka Garza defensive rebound
  49. Q4 9:50
    Micah Potter offensive rebound
  50. Q4 9:54
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  51. Q4 10:06
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    82-96
  52. Q4 10:24
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    82-96
  53. Q4 10:41
    Celtics turnover
  54. Q4 10:57
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  55. Q4 11:11
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    82-96
  56. Q4 11:17
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  57. Q4 11:28
    +1
    Jarace Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    82-96
  58. Q4 11:31
    Celtics turnover
  59. Q4 11:47
    Luka Garza defensive rebound
  60. Q4 11:58
    Anfernee Simons turnover
  61. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  62. Q4 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Luka Garza, Payton Pritchard, Jaylen Brown, Anfernee Simons)
  63. Q3 00:01
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  64. Q3 00:01
    Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman)
  65. Q3 00:06
    Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
  66. Q3 00:31
    Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith)
  67. Q3 00:48
    +2
    T.J. McConnell makes two point layup
    72-85
  68. Q3 00:57
    Neemias Queta turnover (offensive foul)
  69. Q3 1:03
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  70. Q3 1:08
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  71. Q3 1:22
    +3
    Anfernee Simons makes three point jump shot (Jaylen Brown assists)
    72-85
  72. Q3 1:42
    +3
    Ben Sheppard makes three point jump shot (T.J. McConnell assists)
    72-85
  73. Q3 1:54
    Jarace Walker defensive rebound
  74. Q3 2:15
    Micah Potter misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  75. Q3 2:15
    Anfernee Simons personal foul (Loose ball) (Micah Potter draws the foul)
  76. Q3 2:15
    +1
    Micah Potter makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    72-85
  77. Q3 2:29
    Pacers 60 second timeout
  78. Q3 2:29
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Anfernee Simons)
  79. Q3 2:30
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    72-85
  80. Q3 2:46
    +2
    Jarace Walker makes two point jump shot
    72-83
  81. Q3 2:46
    Celtics violation
  82. Q3 2:56
    Anfernee Simons offensive rebound
  83. Q3 3:18
    +2
    Aaron Nesmith makes two point running layup (T.J. McConnell assists)
    72-85
  84. Q3 3:23
    Celtics turnover (T.J. McConnell steals)
  85. Q3 3:29
    Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
  86. Q3 3:33
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  87. Q3 3:51
    Jordan Walsh shooting foul (Micah Potter draws the foul)
  88. Q3 3:51
    Celtics lineup change (Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
  89. Q3 3:53
    Luka Garza misses two point putback layup
  90. Q3 3:54
    Luka Garza offensive rebound
  91. Q3 3:58
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  92. Q3 4:05
    Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
  93. Q3 4:20
    +2
    Anfernee Simons makes two point driving finger roll layup
    72-85
  94. Q3 4:53
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  95. Q3 4:53
    Pacers offensive rebound
  96. Q3 5:01
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  97. Q3 5:15
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    72-85
  98. Q3 5:15
    Celtics lineup change (Hugo Gonzalez, Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Anfernee Simons)
  99. Q3 5:27
    Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
  100. Q3 5:30
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  101. Q3 6:03
    +2
    Jaylen Brown makes two point driving finger roll layup
    56-79
  102. Q3 6:23
    Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
  103. Q3 6:25
    Celtics offensive rebound
  104. Q3 6:25
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman, Anfernee Simons)
  105. Q3 6:40
    +2
    Johnny Furphy makes two point jump shot
    56-79
  106. Q3 6:45
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  107. Q3 6:56
    +2
    Jaylen Brown makes two point driving layup
    56-79
  108. Q3 7:02
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  109. Q3 7:03
    Celtics defensive rebound
  110. Q3 7:06
    Andrew Nembhard turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  111. Q3 7:06
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  112. Q3 7:19
    Celtics personal foul
  113. Q3 7:24
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Payton Pritchard, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman)
  114. Q3 7:29
    Pacers personal foul
  115. Q3 7:29
    Pacers lineup change (Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff)
  116. Q3 7:30
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    56-75
  117. Q3 7:46
    Sam Hauser defensive rebound
  118. Q3 7:49
    Pascal Siakam misses two point cutting layup
  119. Q3 7:59
    Payton Pritchard misses three point jump shot
  120. Q3 8:14
    Aaron Nesmith misses three point jump shot
  121. Q3 8:24
    Aaron Nesmith personal foul (Derrick White draws the foul)
  122. Q3 8:24
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    56-75
  123. Q3 8:42
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  124. Q3 8:43
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  125. Q3 8:43
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Luka Garza, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown)
  126. Q3 8:50
    Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
  127. Q3 9:03
    Aaron Nesmith personal foul (Neemias Queta draws the foul)
  128. Q3 9:13
    Celtics personal foul
  129. Q3 9:13
    +2
    Pascal Siakam makes two point driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
    55-73
  130. Q3 9:27
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot (Derrick White assists)
    53-73
  131. Q3 9:37
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  132. Q3 9:43
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  133. Q3 9:43
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  134. Q3 9:57
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    51-70
  135. Q3 10:07
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  136. Q3 10:32
    Pacers turnover
  137. Q3 11:16
    Pacers personal foul
  138. Q3 11:30
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    48-66
  139. Q3 11:38
    Celtics personal foul
  140. Q2 00:00
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  141. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  142. Q2 00:14
    Pacers turnover
  143. Q2 00:26
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  144. Q2 00:34
    Jaylen Brown offensive rebound
  145. Q2 00:59
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    46-64
  146. Q2 1:12
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  147. Q2 1:25
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  148. Q2 1:27
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    44-64
  149. Q2 1:54
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  150. Q2 2:10
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    42-61
  151. Q2 2:23
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  152. Q2 2:23
    Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Andrew Nembhard, Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam)
  153. Q2 2:34
    Celtics turnover
  154. Q2 2:42
    +1
    Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    38-59
  155. Q2 2:42
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown)
  156. Q2 3:22
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    34-56
  157. Q2 3:28
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    34-55
  158. Q2 3:30
    Pascal Siakam offensive rebound
  159. Q2 3:54
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    32-55
  160. Q2 3:57
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  161. Q2 4:07
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  162. Q2 4:16
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    32-52
  163. Q2 4:27
    Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
  164. Q2 4:30
    Ben Sheppard misses three point jump shot
  165. Q2 4:44
    Pacers personal foul
  166. Q2 4:44
    +1
    Neemias Queta makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    32-51
  167. Q2 4:51
    Pacers turnover
  168. Q2 5:10
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  169. Q2 5:10
    Celtics lineup change (Hugo Gonzalez, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown)
  170. Q2 5:20
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  171. Q2 5:37
    Pacers 60 second timeout
  172. Q2 5:38
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    32-47
  173. Q2 5:48
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  174. Q2 5:59
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    32-45
  175. Q2 6:18
    Celtics lineup change (Hugo Gonzalez, Luka Garza, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown)
  176. Q2 7:00
    +3
    Pacers makes three point jump shot
    32-40
  177. Q2 7:26
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  178. Q2 7:37
    Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
  179. Q2 7:38
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  180. Q2 7:41
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  181. Q2 7:58
    +1
    Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    28-40
  182. Q2 7:58
    +1
    Andrew Nembhard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    29-40
  183. Q2 8:15
    Celtics personal foul
  184. Q2 8:22
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  185. Q2 8:34
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    24-40
  186. Q2 8:47
    Anfernee Simons defensive rebound
  187. Q2 8:50
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    24-38
  188. Q2 8:50
    Celtics personal foul
  189. Q2 9:11
    Pacers turnover
  190. Q2 9:23
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Anfernee Simons)
  191. Q2 9:25
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    22-35
  192. Q2 9:39
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  193. Q2 10:01
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  194. Q2 10:06
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  195. Q2 10:17
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  196. Q2 10:32
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  197. Q2 11:03
    Pacers personal foul
  198. Q2 11:03
    +1
    Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    22-31
  199. Q2 11:14
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  200. Q2 11:40
    Tony Bradley offensive rebound
  201. Q1 00:00
    Pacers offensive rebound
  202. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  203. Q2 12:00
    Pacers lineup change (Andrew Nembhard, Quenton Jackson, Jarace Walker, Tony Bradley, Pascal Siakam)
  204. Q1 00:02
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    20-30
  205. Q1 00:43
    Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
  206. Q1 00:55
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  207. Q1 00:55
    Pacers defensive rebound
  208. Q1 1:13
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    20-26
  209. Q1 1:25
    Luka Garza offensive rebound
  210. Q1 1:25
    Pacers personal foul
  211. Q1 1:25
    +1
    Luka Garza makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    18-26
  212. Q1 1:25
    Pacers lineup change (Ben Sheppard, T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker, Tony Bradley, Aaron Nesmith)
  213. Q1 1:25
    Pacers lineup change (T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker, Tony Bradley, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam)
  214. Q1 1:25
    +1
    Luka Garza makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    20-26
  215. Q1 1:26
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  216. Q1 1:49
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  217. Q1 2:21
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  218. Q1 2:36
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    18-22
  219. Q1 2:54
    Celtics defensive rebound
  220. Q1 2:55
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  221. Q1 3:10
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  222. Q1 3:14
    Pacers personal foul
  223. Q1 3:14
    +1
    Luka Garza makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    18-19
  224. Q1 3:18
    Pacers turnover
  225. Q1 3:31
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  226. Q1 3:47
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    18-18
  227. Q1 4:01
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    16-17
  228. Q1 4:01
    Pacers personal foul
  229. Q1 4:10
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  230. Q1 4:27
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Payton Pritchard, Baylor Scheierman, Anfernee Simons)
  231. Q1 4:27
    Pacers lineup change (Isaiah Jackson, Ben Sheppard, T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith)
  232. Q1 4:43
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    16-15
  233. Q1 5:18
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  234. Q1 5:34
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  235. Q1 5:41
    Jaylen Brown offensive rebound
  236. Q1 5:44
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  237. Q1 5:53
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  238. Q1 6:02
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    10-12
  239. Q1 6:02
    Pacers personal foul
  240. Q1 6:02
    Pacers lineup change (Isaiah Jackson, Ben Sheppard, Andrew Nembhard, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam)
  241. Q1 6:02
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    10-13
  242. Q1 6:21
    +3
    Pacers makes three point jump shot
    10-10
  243. Q1 6:27
    Jay Huff defensive rebound
  244. Q1 6:29
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  245. Q1 6:48
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  246. Q1 6:48
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  247. Q1 6:50
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  248. Q1 7:00
    Pacers personal foul
  249. Q1 7:00
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    7-10
  250. Q1 7:19
    Jaylen Brown turnover (lost ball)
  251. Q1 7:19
    Pacers lineup change (Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff)
  252. Q1 7:44
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  253. Q1 7:47
    Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
  254. Q1 8:07
    Pacers personal foul
  255. Q1 8:28
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  256. Q1 9:18
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    5-8
  257. Q1 9:31
    Pacers misses two point jump shot
  258. Q1 10:08
    +2
    Pacers makes two point jump shot
    5-6
  259. Q1 10:21
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  260. Q1 11:01
    Sam Hauser defensive rebound
  261. Q1 11:05
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  262. Q1 11:11
    Celtics turnover
  263. Q1 11:21
    Pacers misses three point jump shot
  264. Q1 12:00
    Pacers lineup change (Johnny Furphy, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff)
  265. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Pacers
PosPlayerPts
Celtics
PosPlayerPts

Pacers vs. Celtics: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Pacers vs. Celtics
  • Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: TD Garden

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Celtics favored at -10.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Pacers +360, Celtics -450

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Pacers: 21%
  • Celtics: 79%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Pacers 108-117 Celtics.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pacers a win probability of 21%, while the Celtics have a win probability of 79%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Celtics are more likely to beat the Pacers in the NBA game at TD Garden on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Pacers vs. Celtics predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.