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Spurs vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Rockets NBA game on January 20, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
106
111
Jan 21, 1AM Toyota Center
Jan 21, 1AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 39 | 31 | 22 | 14 | 106 |
Rockets | 28 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 111 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 39 | 31 | 22 | 14 | 106 |
Rockets | 28 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 111 |
Q4 00:01 Victor Wembanyama makes two point tip dunk
Q4 00:03 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:09 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:22 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:37 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:56 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:08 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:18 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:12 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:23 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
+2
Victor Wembanyama makes two point tip dunk
106-111
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Reed Sheppard misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
+1
Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
104-109
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Spurs personal foul
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
104-108
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Luke Kornet personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Rockets personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
Spurs 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
100-101
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
100-99
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
98-93
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
96-93
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
92-86
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Spurs offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
92-82
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
92-80
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+1
Clint Capela makes regular free throw 1 of 2
90-77
+1
Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 2
90-78
Spurs turnover
Spurs defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
90-76
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
Rockets turnover
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets lineup change (Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
85-75
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
85-76
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets defensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Jump ball. (Julian Champagnie gains possession)
Rockets defensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
83-70
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
83-69
Rockets 60 second timeout
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
80-67
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
77-63
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
73-60
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Spurs offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Spurs personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
70-59
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
70-60
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
70-58
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
70-55
Rockets turnover
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
68-54
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
66-51
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point tip dunk
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
63-51
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
61-51
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson)
Spurs turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
61-49
Rockets offensive rebound
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
61-45
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Amen Thompson)
Rockets turnover
Spurs personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
54-44
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
54-43
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets personal foul
Tari Eason turnover (offensive foul)
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
49-40
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
47-38
Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
47-35
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
45-35
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
43-32
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
43-30
Spurs personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
41-28
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
37-26
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox, Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
35-26
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
32-24
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
27-24
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Clint Capela)
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets 60 second timeout
Spurs offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
19-18
Spurs turnover
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Rockets 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
16-15
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
10-11
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
11-11
Stoppage (Other)
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
6-6
Spurs personal foul
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
3-4
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Start of 1st Quarter
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 30 | J. Champagnie | 27 | 8 | 2 |
| F | 40 | H. Barnes | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| C | 1 | V. Wembanyama | 14 | 10 | 2 |
| G | 5 | S. Castle | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| G | 4 | D. Fox | 14 | 3 | 5 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 7 | K. Durant | 18 | 4 | 7 |
| G | 1 | A. Thompson | 16 | 10 | 6 |
| F | 17 | T. Eason | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| F | 10 | J. Smith Jr. | 17 | 4 | 1 |
| F | 2 | D. Finney-Smith | 2 | 1 | 1 |
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Spurs vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Spurs vs. Rockets
- Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -4
- Total (Over/Under): 220.5
- Moneyline Odds: Spurs +145, Rockets -164
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Spurs: 38%
- Rockets: 62%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 108-112 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 38%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 62%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Spurs in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Spurs vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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