Thunder vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Rockets NBA game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Thunder
111
91
Toyota Center
Rockets
Toyota Center
TEAM1234T
Thunder
21 34 22 32 111
Rockets
19 29 27 11 91
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Thunder
    >99%
  • Rockets
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Thunder
21 34 22 32 111
Rockets
19 29 27 11 91
Q4 00:00 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:26 Jeff Green makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:02 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Reed Sheppard makes three point pullup jump shot
Q4 2:02 Kenrich Williams makes three point running jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
Q4 2:16 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:24 Jae'Sean Tate misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Q4 2:47 Reed Sheppard misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 3:16 JD Davison misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 3:57 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:26
    +3
    Jeff Green makes three point jump shot
    109-86
  3. Q4 00:37
    Jeff Green defensive rebound
  4. Q4 1:02
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    109-86
  5. Q4 1:07
    Chris Youngblood defensive rebound
  6. Q4 1:49
    +3
    Reed Sheppard makes three point pullup jump shot
    109-86
  7. Q4 2:02
    +3
    Kenrich Williams makes three point running jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
    109-86
  8. Q4 2:11
    Jeff Green defensive rebound
  9. Q4 2:16
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  10. Q4 2:24
    Jae'Sean Tate misses two point fadeaway jump shot
  11. Q4 2:47
    Reed Sheppard misses two point pullup jump shot
  12. Q4 2:48
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  13. Q4 2:48
    Thunder lineup change (Chris Youngblood, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe)
  14. Q4 3:05
    Rockets personal foul
  15. Q4 3:16
    JD Davison misses two point pullup jump shot
  16. Q4 3:32
    Jabari Smith Jr. shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  17. Q4 3:32
    Rockets lineup change (Jeff Green, Jae'Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Aaron Holiday, JD Davison)
  18. Q4 3:32
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    109-86
  19. Q4 3:38
    Jalen Williams defensive rebound
  20. Q4 3:44
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  21. Q4 3:57
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  22. Q4 4:13
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    103-83
  23. Q4 4:13
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
  24. Q4 4:49
    Amen Thompson misses two point floating jump shot
  25. Q4 5:02
    +1
    Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    101-83
  26. Q4 5:02
    +1
    Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    101-83
  27. Q4 5:10
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  28. Q4 5:14
    Rockets offensive rebound
  29. Q4 5:17
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  30. Q4 5:17
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort)
  31. Q4 5:23
    Josh Okogie offensive rebound
  32. Q4 5:26
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  33. Q4 5:49
    Thunder offensive rebound
  34. Q4 5:50
    Kenrich Williams misses three point jump shot
  35. Q4 6:11
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  36. Q4 6:26
    Rockets turnover
  37. Q4 7:04
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    95-83
  38. Q4 7:18
    Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
  39. Q4 8:20
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  40. Q4 8:27
    Rockets turnover
  41. Q4 8:37
    Jalen Williams misses two point jump shot
  42. Q4 8:46
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point tip layup
  43. Q4 8:47
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  44. Q4 9:14
    Jalen Williams defensive rebound
  45. Q4 9:15
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  46. Q4 9:19
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  47. Q4 9:41
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    88-79
  48. Q4 11:03
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    79-77
  49. Q4 11:28
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    79-75
  50. Q4 11:34
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  51. Q3 00:00
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  52. Q3 00:00
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
  53. Q3 00:00
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
  54. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  55. Q3 00:01
    Amen Thompson offensive rebound
  56. Q3 00:07
    Thunder turnover
  57. Q3 00:34
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  58. Q3 00:51
    Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  59. Q3 00:51
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    77-73
  60. Q3 1:06
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  61. Q3 1:16
    Rockets turnover
  62. Q3 1:50
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    75-72
  63. Q3 2:05
    Rockets offensive rebound
  64. Q3 2:05
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  65. Q3 2:05
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Amen Thompson, JD Davison, Alperen Sengun)
  66. Q3 2:39
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    73-70
  67. Q3 2:42
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  68. Q3 2:45
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  69. Q3 3:13
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  70. Q3 3:28
    Cason Wallace offensive rebound
  71. Q3 3:45
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    73-67
  72. Q3 4:26
    Thunder personal foul
  73. Q3 4:26
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace)
  74. Q3 4:32
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  75. Q3 4:36
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  76. Q3 4:54
    Jabari Smith Jr. turnover (offensive foul)
  77. Q3 4:54
    Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., JD Davison, Kevin Durant)
  78. Q3 5:03
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    71-63
  79. Q3 5:09
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  80. Q3 5:28
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  81. Q3 5:35
    Rockets turnover
  82. Q3 5:39
    Steven Adams misses two point layup
  83. Q3 5:57
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    69-63
  84. Q3 6:15
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    66-62
  85. Q3 6:15
    Thunder personal foul
  86. Q3 6:15
    Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort)
  87. Q3 6:15
    Luguentz Dort defensive goaltending violation
  88. Q3 6:33
    Rockets personal foul
  89. Q3 6:33
    +1
    Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    65-60
  90. Q3 6:33
    +1
    Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    66-60
  91. Q3 6:37
    Rockets turnover
  92. Q3 6:56
    JD Davison personal foul
  93. Q3 6:56
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    63-60
  94. Q3 7:01
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  95. Q3 7:13
    Thunder personal foul
  96. Q3 7:26
    Aaron Wiggins offensive rebound
  97. Q3 7:39
    Rockets turnover
  98. Q3 8:04
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    62-60
  99. Q3 8:37
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    59-58
  100. Q3 8:53
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    57-58
  101. Q3 8:53
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  102. Q3 9:02
    Thunder turnover
  103. Q3 9:51
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  104. Q3 10:07
    Rockets offensive rebound
  105. Q3 10:15
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  106. Q3 10:42
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    55-53
  107. Q3 10:43
    Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
  108. Q3 11:08
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  109. Q3 11:23
    Jump ball. (Kevin Durant gains possession)
  110. Q3 11:42
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  111. Q3 11:46
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  112. Q2 00:00
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  113. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  114. Q2 00:19
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  115. Q2 00:19
    Steven Adams offensive rebound
  116. Q2 00:19
    Thunder violation
  117. Q2 00:30
    Thunder turnover
  118. Q2 00:35
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  119. Q2 1:35
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    52-46
  120. Q2 1:43
    +2
    Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot
    50-46
  121. Q2 1:50
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  122. Q2 2:02
    Thunder personal foul
  123. Q2 2:02
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    50-43
  124. Q2 2:02
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams)
  125. Q2 2:13
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    50-42
  126. Q2 2:35
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    47-41
  127. Q2 2:35
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort)
  128. Q2 2:38
    Steven Adams offensive rebound
  129. Q2 2:39
    Josh Okogie offensive rebound
  130. Q2 2:59
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  131. Q2 3:43
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    47-38
  132. Q2 3:55
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  133. Q2 4:11
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  134. Q2 4:11
    Rockets personal foul
  135. Q2 4:11
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  136. Q2 4:11
    Instant replay
  137. Q2 4:11
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort)
  138. Q2 4:15
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  139. Q2 4:16
    Isaiah Joe misses two point running layup
  140. Q2 4:38
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  141. Q2 4:52
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    41-38
  142. Q2 4:52
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    42-38
  143. Q2 5:03
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    39-38
  144. Q2 5:24
    Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
  145. Q2 5:25
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  146. Q2 5:52
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    36-34
  147. Q2 5:55
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  148. Q2 6:09
    Thunder offensive rebound
  149. Q2 6:22
    +1
    Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    36-31
  150. Q2 6:23
    Steven Adams offensive rebound
  151. Q2 6:39
    Steven Adams defensive rebound
  152. Q2 6:55
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    36-30
  153. Q2 7:17
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    36-28
  154. Q2 7:23
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  155. Q2 7:23
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    34-28
  156. Q2 7:23
    Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Jabari Smith Jr., JD Davison, Kevin Durant)
  157. Q2 7:34
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  158. Q2 8:01
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  159. Q2 8:11
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    32-28
  160. Q2 8:47
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  161. Q2 8:57
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    30-24
  162. Q2 9:06
    Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
  163. Q2 9:07
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  164. Q2 9:07
    Rockets offensive rebound
  165. Q2 9:16
    Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
  166. Q2 9:31
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  167. Q2 10:09
    Steven Adams offensive rebound
  168. Q2 10:29
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  169. Q2 10:46
    Rockets offensive rebound
  170. Q2 11:08
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    26-21
  171. Q2 11:44
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    24-19
  172. Q1 00:00
    Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
  173. Q2 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
  174. Q1 00:13
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  175. Q1 00:26
    Amen Thompson offensive rebound
  176. Q1 00:49
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    21-19
  177. Q1 1:12
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    18-19
  178. Q1 1:34
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  179. Q1 1:53
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  180. Q1 2:07
    Thunder turnover
  181. Q1 2:17
    Reed Sheppard misses two point jump shot
  182. Q1 2:26
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  183. Q1 2:28
    Alex Caruso offensive rebound
  184. Q1 2:30
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  185. Q1 2:44
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    17-15
  186. Q1 2:44
    Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Amen Thompson, JD Davison, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
  187. Q1 2:49
    Thunder turnover
  188. Q1 3:01
    Thunder defensive rebound
  189. Q1 3:01
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  190. Q1 3:02
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  191. Q1 3:59
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    17-13
  192. Q1 4:06
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  193. Q1 4:21
    Rockets offensive rebound
  194. Q1 4:21
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace)
  195. Q1 4:25
    Thunder turnover
  196. Q1 4:28
    Rockets turnover
  197. Q1 4:49
    Thunder offensive rebound
  198. Q1 4:49
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    15-13
  199. Q1 5:10
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    14-13
  200. Q1 5:22
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  201. Q1 5:28
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  202. Q1 5:35
    Rockets offensive rebound
  203. Q1 5:45
    Thunder personal foul
  204. Q1 5:53
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    14-11
  205. Q1 5:56
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  206. Q1 6:01
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  207. Q1 6:10
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  208. Q1 6:25
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
  209. Q1 6:49
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  210. Q1 7:07
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  211. Q1 7:37
    Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
  212. Q1 8:07
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  213. Q1 8:23
    Luguentz Dort turnover (offensive foul)
  214. Q1 8:37
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  215. Q1 8:40
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  216. Q1 8:50
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    10-9
  217. Q1 9:04
    Stoppage (Other)
  218. Q1 9:07
    Rockets personal foul
  219. Q1 9:07
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    10-6
  220. Q1 9:11
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  221. Q1 9:15
    Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
  222. Q1 9:32
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    5-6
  223. Q1 9:43
    Thunder personal foul
  224. Q1 10:01
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  225. Q1 10:03
    Jalen Williams defensive rebound
  226. Q1 10:12
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  227. Q1 10:21
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  228. Q1 10:51
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    5-3
  229. Q1 11:02
    Rockets turnover
  230. Q1 11:05
    Thunder turnover
  231. Q1 11:36
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    2-0
  232. Q1 11:52
    Josh Okogie misses two point driving dunk
  233. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
  234. Q1 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
Box Score
Thunder
PosPlayerPts
Rockets
PosPlayerPts

Thunder vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Thunder vs. Rockets
  • Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Toyota Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -4
  • Total (Over/Under): 222
  • Moneyline Odds: Thunder -175, Rockets +150

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Thunder: 67%
  • Rockets: 33%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 113-108 Rockets.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 67%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 33%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Rockets in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Thunder vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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