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Thunder vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Rockets NBA game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
111
91
Jan 16, 12:30AM Toyota Center
Jan 16, 12:30AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 21 | 34 | 22 | 32 | 111 |
Rockets | 19 | 29 | 27 | 11 | 91 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 21 | 34 | 22 | 32 | 111 |
Rockets | 19 | 29 | 27 | 11 | 91 |
Q4 00:00 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:26 Jeff Green makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:02 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Reed Sheppard makes three point pullup jump shot
Q4 2:02 Kenrich Williams makes three point running jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
Q4 2:16 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:24 Jae'Sean Tate misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Q4 2:47 Reed Sheppard misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 3:16 JD Davison misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 3:57 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Jeff Green makes three point jump shot
109-86
Jeff Green defensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
109-86
Chris Youngblood defensive rebound
+3
Reed Sheppard makes three point pullup jump shot
109-86
+3
Kenrich Williams makes three point running jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
109-86
Jeff Green defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jae'Sean Tate misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Reed Sheppard misses two point pullup jump shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Chris Youngblood, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe)
Rockets personal foul
JD Davison misses two point pullup jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Jeff Green, Jae'Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Aaron Holiday, JD Davison)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
109-86
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes technical free throw 1 of 1
103-83
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
Amen Thompson misses two point floating jump shot
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
101-83
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
101-83
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort)
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Kenrich Williams misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Rockets turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
95-83
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Jalen Williams misses two point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point tip layup
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
88-79
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
79-77
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
79-75
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
77-73
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
75-72
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Amen Thompson, JD Davison, Alperen Sengun)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
73-70
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
73-67
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. turnover (offensive foul)
Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., JD Davison, Kevin Durant)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
71-63
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Steven Adams misses two point layup
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
69-63
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
66-62
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort)
Luguentz Dort defensive goaltending violation
Rockets personal foul
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
65-60
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
66-60
Rockets turnover
JD Davison personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
63-60
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Aaron Wiggins offensive rebound
Rockets turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
62-60
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
59-58
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
57-58
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder turnover
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
55-53
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jump ball. (Kevin Durant gains possession)
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Half.
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Thunder violation
Thunder turnover
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
52-46
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot
50-46
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
50-43
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
50-42
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
47-41
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Luguentz Dort)
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
47-38
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Rockets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Joe misses two point running layup
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
41-38
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
42-38
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
39-38
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
36-34
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
36-31
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Steven Adams defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
36-30
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
36-28
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
34-28
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Jabari Smith Jr., JD Davison, Kevin Durant)
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
32-28
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
30-24
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
26-21
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
24-19
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
21-19
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
18-19
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Reed Sheppard misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Alex Caruso offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
17-15
Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Amen Thompson, JD Davison, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant)
Thunder turnover
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
17-13
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace)
Thunder turnover
Rockets turnover
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
15-13
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
14-13
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
14-11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort turnover (offensive foul)
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
10-9
Stoppage (Other)
Rockets personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 1
10-6
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
5-6
Thunder personal foul
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
5-3
Rockets turnover
Thunder turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
2-0
Josh Okogie misses two point driving dunk
Start of 1st Quarter
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thunder vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Rockets
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -4
- Total (Over/Under): 222
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -175, Rockets +150
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 67%
- Rockets: 33%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 113-108 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 67%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 33%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Rockets in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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