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Rockets vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Rockets vs. Mavericks NBA game on January 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
104
110
Jan 4, 1:30AM American Airlines Center
Jan 4, 1:30AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 31 | 19 | 25 | 29 | 104 |
Mavericks | 25 | 32 | 30 | 23 | 110 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 31 | 19 | 25 | 29 | 104 |
Mavericks | 25 | 32 | 30 | 23 | 110 |
Q4 00:03 Tari Eason makes three point pullup jump shot (Aaron Holiday assists)
Q4 00:31 Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:36 Kevin Durant misses three point running jump shot
Q4 00:52 Max Christie makes two point driving dunk
Q4 1:07 Tari Eason makes three point jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
Q4 1:14 Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:28 Brandon Williams makes two point driving layup (Naji Marshall assists)
Q4 1:42 Kevin Durant makes two point driving layup
Q4 1:54 Anthony Davis misses two point driving finger roll layup
Q4 2:39 Kevin Durant makes two point driving layup
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
+3
Tari Eason makes three point pullup jump shot (Aaron Holiday assists)
104-110
Mavericks turnover (shot clock violation)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
101-109
Rockets 60 second timeout
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
101-110
Kevin Durant misses three point running jump shot
Anthony Davis turnover (bad pass) (Aaron Holiday steals)
Aaron Holiday personal foul (Take) (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Kevin Durant turnover (bad pass) (Cooper Flagg steals)
+2
Max Christie makes two point driving dunk
101-108
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Tari Eason makes three point jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
101-106
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point driving layup (Naji Marshall assists)
98-106
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving layup
98-104
Brandon Williams personal foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Anthony Davis misses two point driving finger roll layup
Aaron Holiday personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Brandon Williams shooting foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
Rockets offensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
96-104
Anthony Davis turnover (bad pass) (Aaron Holiday steals)
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving layup
95-104
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
93-104
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Anthony Davis blocks Tari Eason's two point driving layup
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Aaron Holiday misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses three point pullup jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Aaron Holiday misses three point running jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Caleb Martin misses two point driving layup
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Tari Eason misses two point driving layup
Brandon Williams turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
93-101
Caleb Martin shooting foul (Amen Thompson draws the foul)
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
92-101
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Max Christie misses three point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Brandon Williams offensive rebound
Aaron Holiday blocks Brandon Williams's two point driving layup
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, Caleb Martin)
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
+2
Jabari Smith Jr. makes two point running dunk (Amen Thompson assists)
91-101
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses three point jump shot
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
89-101
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
87-101
Max Christie defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses three point jump shot
+2
Ryan Nembhard makes two point driving layup
87-98
+3
Dorian Finney-Smith makes three point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
87-96
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Kevin Durant blocks Cooper Flagg's two point driving layup
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses three point jump shot
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point turnaround bank jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Dorian Finney-Smith misses three point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point tip layup
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Aaron Holiday misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Ryan Nembhard, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point driving layup
84-96
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot
82-96
+3
Max Christie makes three point pullup jump shot
79-96
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point fadeaway jump shot
79-93
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Cooper Flagg misses three point jump shot
Dorian Finney-Smith turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
Max Christie misses two point driving layup
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Daniel Gafford blocks Amen Thompson's two point running layup
Tari Eason defensive rebound
+1
Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-93
Reed Sheppard shooting foul (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Ryan Nembhard, Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Daniel Gafford misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks turnover
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses two point jump shot
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Daniel Gafford assists)
77-92
Amen Thompson personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Max Christie defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses three point pullup jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point driving bank hook shot
77-89
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
77-87
Tari Eason turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Max Christie)
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Mavericks offensive rebound
Start of 4th Quarter
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point alley-oop dunk (Naji Marshall assists)
75-87
Tari Eason turnover (lost ball) (Brandon Williams steals)
Brandon Williams turnover (bad pass) (Amen Thompson steals)
Anthony Davis shooting foul (Tari Eason draws the foul)
+1
Tari Eason makes regular free throw 1 of 2
74-85
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Max Christie)
+1
Tari Eason makes regular free throw 2 of 2
75-85
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point driving floating jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
73-85
+2
Tari Eason makes two point driving layup (Reed Sheppard assists)
73-83
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point driving layup
71-83
+2
Josh Okogie makes two point cutting dunk (Reed Sheppard assists)
71-81
Naji Marshall turnover (bad pass) (Tari Eason steals)
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Tari Eason misses three point stepback bank jump shot
+1
Klay Thompson makes technical free throw 1 of 1
69-81
Brandon Williams personal foul (Tari Eason draws the foul)
Kevin Durant technical foul
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin)
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie)
Rockets personal foul
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Clint Capela defensive rebound
Kevin Durant blocks Cooper Flagg's two point driving reverse layup
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving floating jump shot
69-80
+2
Caleb Martin makes two point running dunk
67-80
Clint Capela turnover (bad pass) (Caleb Martin steals)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard shooting foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point driving finger roll layup
67-78
Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard)
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin)
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point fadeaway jump shot
+2
Max Christie makes two point fadeaway jump shot
67-76
Clint Capela offensive rebound
+2
Clint Capela makes two point tip layup
67-74
Cooper Flagg blocks Clint Capela's two point tip layup
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Caleb Martin personal foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie, Caleb Martin)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard)
+3
Max Christie makes three point running jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
65-74
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving layup
65-71
Max Christie defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point running dunk (Cooper Flagg assists)
65-69
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Max Christie blocks Kevin Durant's two point pullup jump shot
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point driving layup
65-67
+3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes three point jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
65-65
Anthony Davis turnover (bad pass) (Clint Capela steals)
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating jump shot
Amen Thompson misses three point pullup jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point tip layup
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Anthony Davis blocks Clint Capela's two point putback layup
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Clint Capela misses two point driving dunk
Stoppage (Other)
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point cutting dunk (Anthony Davis assists)
62-65
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point pullup jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
62-63
+2
Max Christie makes two point driving dunk
60-63
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving floating jump shot
60-61
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses three point jump shot
+2
Tari Eason makes two point running layup
58-61
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)
56-61
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses three point running jump shot
Max Christie defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point driving floating jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
54-61
Amen Thompson shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
Anthony Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Tari Eason misses three point jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point fadeaway jump shot
54-59
+2
Clint Capela makes two point putback layup
54-57
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses three point jump shot
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point running layup (Clint Capela assists)
52-57
Anthony Davis turnover (lost ball) (Clint Capela steals)
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks misses heave shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Start of 3rd Quarter
Amen Thompson misses two point driving layup
Brandon Williams personal foul (Take) (Reed Sheppard draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, Caleb Martin)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses two point running reverse layup
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Tari Eason misses two point driving floating bank jump shot
+3
Brandon Williams makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
50-57
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point running dunk (Cooper Flagg assists)
50-54
Reed Sheppard turnover (bad pass) (Cooper Flagg steals)
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point running finger roll layup (Cooper Flagg assists)
50-52
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Tari Eason misses three point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Amen Thompson blocks Klay Thompson's two point pullup jump shot
Tari Eason offensive rebound
+2
Tari Eason makes two point tip layup
50-50
Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets challenge timeout
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
48-49
Kevin Durant shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
48-50
Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving floating jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
48-48
Kevin Durant shooting foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Naji Marshall misses regular free throw 1 of 1
+2
Clint Capela makes two point cutting finger roll layup (Kevin Durant assists)
48-46
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses three point stepback jump shot
+3
Reed Sheppard makes three point jump shot (Clint Capela assists)
46-46
Clint Capela defensive rebound
Clint Capela blocks Brandon Williams's two point driving reverse layup
Brandon Williams shooting foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
43-46
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
42-46
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Clint Capela blocks Cooper Flagg's two point driving layup
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point driving floating jump shot
41-46
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point running layup (Cooper Flagg assists)
39-46
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses two point pullup jump shot
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Naji Marshall personal foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving layup
39-44
+3
Tari Eason makes three point jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
39-42
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
36-42
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
36-41
Reed Sheppard shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Anthony Davis blocks Tari Eason's two point driving layup
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses three point pullup jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Josh Okogie misses three point jump shot
Ryan Nembhard turnover (bad pass) (Clint Capela steals)
+2
Tari Eason makes two point putback layup
36-40
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Ryan Nembhard, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie)
Tari Eason misses two point driving layup
+3
Ryan Nembhard makes three point pullup jump shot
34-40
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Jae'Sean Tate misses three point jump shot
Daniel Gafford turnover (bad pass) (Aaron Holiday steals)
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Josh Okogie misses three point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point pullup jump shot
34-37
Aaron Holiday personal foul (Ryan Nembhard draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Josh Okogie)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Ryan Nembhard, Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Max Christie defensive rebound
Daniel Gafford blocks Jabari Smith Jr.'s two point driving finger roll layup
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Aaron Holiday misses three point jump shot
Klay Thompson turnover (bad pass) (Tari Eason steals)
Max Christie defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point pullup jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Jae'Sean Tate makes three point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
34-35
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point alley-oop dunk (Ryan Nembhard assists)
31-35
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard personal foul (Loose ball) (Amen Thompson draws the foul)
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point running layup
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Aaron Holiday misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Klay Thompson makes two point running layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)
31-33
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Amen Thompson)
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Aaron Holiday misses three point jump shot
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point driving floating jump shot
31-31
Reed Sheppard personal foul (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Max Christie makes two point driving dunk (Klay Thompson assists)
31-29
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point running finger roll layup (Max Christie assists)
31-27
Amen Thompson turnover (bad pass) (Max Christie steals)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses two point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Mavericks misses heave shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Jae'Sean Tate, Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Max Christie)
Start of 2nd Quarter
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Clint Capela misses two point alley-oop layup
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point jump shot
31-25
+2
Reed Sheppard makes two point driving layup (Kevin Durant assists)
31-23
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses three point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses three point pullup jump shot
Clint Capela defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses two point driving floating jump shot
+3
Reed Sheppard makes three point jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)
29-23
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
P.J. Washington misses three point jump shot
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving dunk (Reed Sheppard assists)
26-23
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point driving hook shot
24-23
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point driving finger roll layup (Naji Marshall assists)
22-23
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Rockets defensive rebound
Naji Marshall personal foul (Loose ball) (Clint Capela draws the foul)
Clint Capela misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Clint Capela misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Klay Thompson misses three point running jump shot
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
22-20
Clint Capela shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 1
22-21
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Dorian Finney-Smith misses three point jump shot
Dorian Finney-Smith shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
22-17
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
22-18
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
31-27
Kevin Durant offensive foul (P.J. Washington draws the foul)
Kevin Durant turnover (offensive foul)
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
22-15
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 1
22-16
Kevin Durant shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+2
Clint Capela makes two point driving bank hook shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
22-13
+2
Max Christie makes two point running layup
20-13
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Tari Eason misses two point driving hook shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point jump shot (Max Christie assists)
20-11
Anthony Davis shooting foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 1
20-9
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
19-9
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard)
Brandon Williams turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)
17-9
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses two point jump shot
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Anthony Davis blocks Kevin Durant's two point driving floating jump shot
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
15-9
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis, Max Christie)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point running layup (Tari Eason assists)
15-6
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Kevin Durant blocks Daniel Gafford's two point running layup
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
P.J. Washington blocks Tari Eason's two point running finger roll layup
Max Christie turnover (bad pass) (Clint Capela steals)
Amen Thompson turnover (bad pass) (P.J. Washington steals)
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point driving hook shot
13-6
Mavericks turnover
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
13-4
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
12-4
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Davis, Max Christie)
Cooper Flagg shooting foul (Jabari Smith Jr. draws the foul)
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Anthony Davis blocks Kevin Durant's two point driving layup
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
11-4
Tari Eason shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
11-3
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses three point running jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Max Christie misses three point jump shot
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
11-2
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Cooper Flagg turnover (bad pass) (Clint Capela steals)
+3
Kevin Durant makes three point pullup jump shot
9-2
+2
Max Christie makes two point fadeaway jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
6-2
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
6-0
P.J. Washington personal foul (Loose ball) (Amen Thompson draws the foul)
Amen Thompson misses two point cutting layup
Rockets offensive rebound
+1
Amen Thompson makes flagrant free throw 2 of 2
4-0
Cooper Flagg flagrant 1 (Amen Thompson draws the foul)
+1
Amen Thompson makes flagrant free throw 1 of 2
3-0
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
Cooper Flagg turnover (lost ball) (Amen Thompson steals)
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point driving floating jump shot (Tari Eason assists)
2-0
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point pullup jump shot
Max Christie defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses three point jump shot
Anthony Davis turnover (lost ball) (Amen Thompson steals)
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
Mavericks lineup change (P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Max Christie)
Start of 1st Quarter
Alperen Sengun vs. Daniel Gafford (Amen Thompson gains possession)
Game Prediction Article
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Rockets vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Rockets vs. Mavericks
- Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -7.5
- Total (Over/Under): 228.5
- Moneyline Odds: Rockets -286, Mavericks +280
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Rockets: 73%
- Mavericks: 27%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Rockets 118-111 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rockets a win probability of 73%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 27%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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