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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 4 of 2026 Finals
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Knicks vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Knicks vs. Thunder NBA game on March 29, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
100
111
Mar 29, 11:30PM Paycom Center
Mar 29, 11:30PM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Knicks | 23 | 22 | 33 | 20 | 100 |
Thunder | 30 | 21 | 33 | 27 | 111 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Knicks | 23 | 22 | 33 | 20 | 100 |
Thunder | 30 | 21 | 33 | 27 | 111 |
Q4 00:41 Knicks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:59 Knicks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:10 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:53 Knicks misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:02 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:22 Knicks misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:39 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:51 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:13 Knicks misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:37 Thunder makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Thunder turnover
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Knicks offensive rebound
Knicks personal foul
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
98-110
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Jordan Clarkson, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns)
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
98-111
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
98-109
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
96-109
Thunder personal foul
Jalen Brunson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Knicks offensive rebound
+1
Jalen Brunson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
96-107
Knicks personal foul
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
95-107
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Josh Hart defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
95-106
Jump ball. (Alex Caruso gains possession)
Josh Hart turnover (lost ball)
Josh Hart defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Knicks 60 second timeout
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
95-104
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
95-101
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Knicks 60 second timeout
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns)
Instant replay
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson)
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns)
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell)
Knicks turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
95-99
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
95-97
Knicks personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
93-96
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
93-97
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson)
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell)
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
93-95
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
91-95
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
90-92
Thunder personal foul
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns)
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
+1
Karl-Anthony Towns makes regular free throw 1 of 1
91-92
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Knicks turnover
Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
88-92
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder turnover
+3
Knicks makes three point jump shot
86-92
Thunder personal foul
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Knicks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
83-92
Thunder personal foul
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
81-92
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Karl-Anthony Towns makes regular free throw 1 of 2
79-89
+1
Karl-Anthony Towns makes regular free throw 2 of 2
79-89
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Mikal Bridges misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Knicks offensive rebound
+1
Mikal Bridges makes regular free throw 2 of 2
79-89
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
+2
Isaiah Hartenstein makes two point tip layup
78-89
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
78-87
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell)
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Jordan Clarkson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jose Alvarado)
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
78-84
Jose Alvarado offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Mitchell Robinson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
76-84
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Jared McCain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell)
Mitchell Robinson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder personal foul
Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Knicks turnover
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Knicks personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 3
75-82
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 3
75-83
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 3 of 3
75-84
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Knicks turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
75-81
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
75-79
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
73-79
+3
Knicks makes three point jump shot
73-77
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
70-77
+3
Knicks makes three point jump shot
70-74
Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound
Knicks personal foul
Knicks personal foul
Thunder offensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses technical free throw 1 of 1
+1
Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 1 of 2
67-74
Cason Wallace misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Knicks 60 second timeout
Knicks lineup change (Josh Hart, Jordan Clarkson, Jalen Brunson, Jose Alvarado, Mitchell Robinson)
Josh Hart defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Jared McCain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
Knicks misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
67-73
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
67-70
Thunder turnover
Jared McCain offensive rebound
Knicks personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
65-70
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell)
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
65-69
Josh Hart defensive rebound
Thunder offensive rebound
Knicks personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
63-69
Knicks lineup change (Josh Hart, Jordan Clarkson, Jalen Brunson, Mohamed Diawara, Mitchell Robinson)
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Jared McCain misses three point jump shot
Josh Hart turnover (Luguentz Dort steals)
Karl-Anthony Towns kicked ball violation
Knicks lineup change (Josh Hart, Jordan Clarkson, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson)
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Jalen Brunson personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
63-68
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
63-68
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround jump shot
63-66
+2
Mikal Bridges makes two point jump shot (Josh Hart assists)
63-64
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Knicks makes three point jump shot
61-64
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point pullup jump shot
58-64
Jalen Williams offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
OG Anunoby personal foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
Knicks lineup change (Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Miles McBride)
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
61-64
Thunder violation
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
58-64
Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
Isaiah Hartenstein misses two point floating jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Isaiah Hartenstein misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Josh Hart defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Knicks turnover
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (offensive foul)
Mikal Bridges offensive rebound
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
61-64
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot
Knicks personal foul
Josh Hart turnover (offensive foul)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
61-64
Knicks turnover
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point putback dunk
61-64
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Karl-Anthony Towns offensive foul (Charge) (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Karl-Anthony Towns turnover (offensive foul)
Instant replay
+1
Chet Holmgren makes flagrant free throw 2 of 2
45-51
+1
Chet Holmgren makes flagrant free throw 1 of 2
61-64
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul (Mikal Bridges draws the foul)
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Knicks personal foul
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
45-51
Chet Holmgren personal foul (Josh Hart draws the foul)
+3
Josh Hart makes three point jump shot
45-51
Instant replay (Request)
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams)
End of 1st Half.
Jalen Williams turnover (offensive foul)
Jalen Williams offensive foul (Charge) (Jalen Brunson draws the foul)
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
OG Anunoby misses two point driving layup
OG Anunoby turnover (lost ball)
+2
Luguentz Dort makes two point jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)
45-51
+3
Jalen Brunson makes three point jump shot
45-51
Chet Holmgren turnover
Cason Wallace personal foul (Jalen Brunson draws the foul)
Jalen Brunson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Knicks offensive rebound
+1
Jalen Brunson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
45-51
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
45-51
Jalen Brunson personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-51
+3
Josh Hart makes three point jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)
45-51
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Knicks offensive rebound
Knicks turnover (shot clock violation)
Knicks 60 second timeout
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point jump shot
45-51
Knicks turnover
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
42-46
Knicks personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 1
45-51
Knicks turnover
Cason Wallace personal foul (Mikal Bridges draws the foul)
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns)
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams)
Knicks lineup change (Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, Mitchell Robinson)
Thunder turnover
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Jose Alvarado misses two point driving finger roll layup
+1
Luguentz Dort makes regular free throw 2 of 2
42-44
Jalen Brunson personal foul
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Luguentz Dort makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-51
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Knicks makes three point jump shot
45-51
Jalen Brunson offensive rebound
Jose Alvarado misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround jump shot
42-44
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell)
+3
Jose Alvarado makes three point jump shot
39-40
Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound
Jaylin Williams misses three point jump shot
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
45-51
Knicks personal foul
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-51
Knicks lineup change (Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, Jose Alvarado, Mitchell Robinson)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
45-51
Jose Alvarado turnover (Jalen Williams steals)
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Alex Caruso misses two point jump shot
+3
Jose Alvarado makes three point jump shot (Miles McBride assists)
34-38
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
31-37
Knicks personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 1
31-38
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Alex Caruso personal foul (Karl-Anthony Towns draws the foul)
Alex Caruso personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
Mitchell Robinson offensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Knicks lineup change (Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, Miles McBride, Jose Alvarado, Mitchell Robinson)
Knicks defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Knicks makes two point jump shot
31-35
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Alex Caruso personal foul (Jordan Clarkson draws the foul)
Mitchell Robinson blocks Jalen Williams's two point driving layup
+3
Knicks makes three point jump shot
31-35
OG Anunoby personal foul
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
31-38
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
31-38
Knicks lineup change (Jordan Clarkson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jose Alvarado, Mitchell Robinson)
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein turnover
Knicks turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
45-51
+3
OG Anunoby makes three point jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)
26-31
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
Jose Alvarado personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
31-38
Ajay Mitchell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Jose Alvarado misses two point jump shot
Jose Alvarado offensive rebound
Jordan Clarkson misses two point running alley-oop layup
Isaiah Joe turnover (lost ball) (Mikal Bridges steals)
Isaiah Hartenstein turnover (Karl-Anthony Towns steals)
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Knicks personal foul
Knicks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
42-44
Knicks 60 second timeout
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
23-28
Knicks personal foul
Jose Alvarado turnover (offensive foul)
Knicks offensive rebound
Knicks misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Jordan Clarkson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jose Alvarado)
Knicks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Knicks lineup change (OG Anunoby, Jordan Clarkson, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell)
Knicks misses two point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
23-30
+3
Mikal Bridges makes three point jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)
23-30
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
Jared McCain misses three point jump shot
Knicks turnover
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Jaylin Williams turnover (lost ball) (Josh Hart steals)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
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Knicks vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Knicks vs. Thunder
- Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -7.5
- Total (Over/Under): 238.5
- Moneyline Odds: Knicks +308, Thunder -308
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Knicks: 26%
- Thunder: 74%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Knicks 108-115 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Knicks a win probability of 26%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 74%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Knicks in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Knicks vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
