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Houston vs. Dallas Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Houston vs. Dallas at the MLS on March 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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MLS
Houston
3
4
Mar 22, 12:30AM Toyota Stadium
Dallas
Mar 22, 12:30AM Toyota Stadium
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
DallasFCD
Score Summary
HoustonHOU
L. Farrington (6')
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L. Farrington (14')
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E. Sviatchenko (o.g.) (54')
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P. Musa (86')
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Guilherme (29')
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E. Sviatchenko (31')
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L. Ennali (33')
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E. Sviatchenko (68')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
FCD
96.9%
Draw
3.1%
HOU
0.1%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Ibeagha replaces L. Farrington
86'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Musa, assisted by J. Valiente
3-4
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Bouzat replaces H. Herrera
75'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: R. Binyamin replaces Kaick
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Resch replaces L. Ennali
74'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: P. Delgado replaces N. Norris
68'
Red Card
E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) sent off for a second yellow card
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Houston Dynamo: O. Lingr replaces E. Ponce
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Houston Dynamo: I. Aliyu replaces D. Holmes
57'
Yellow Card
Kaick (FC Dallas) cautioned
54'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for FC Dallas by E. Sviatchenko (o.g.)
3-3
46'
Substitution
Substitution for FC Dallas: P. Musa replaces C. Cappis
46'
Yellow Card
D. Holmes (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
45'
Yellow Card
E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
38'
Yellow Card
E. Ponce (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
33'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by L. Ennali, assisted by Guilherme
3-2
31'
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Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by E. Sviatchenko, assisted by Guilherme
2-2
29'
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Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by Guilherme
1-2
20'
Yellow Card
O. Urhoghide (FC Dallas) cautioned
14'
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Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington
0-2
6'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington
0-1

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Houston vs. Dallas: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Houston vs. Dallas prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all MLS matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Houston vs. Dallas
  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Toyota Stadium
  • Tournament: MLS

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Houston +180, Dallas +145, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-141/+120)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Houston: 27.9%
  • Dallas: 47.9%
  • Draw: 24.2%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Houston 1-1 Dallas, with a probability of 11%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Houston is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 27.9% probability, while Dallas sits at 47.9%, with the draw at 24.2%.

For full access to MLS predictions, probabilities, and tools such as MLS best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Houston vs. Dallas prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the MLS and the latest MLS news.

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