Houston vs. Dallas Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Houston vs. Dallas MLS match on March 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Houston
3
4
Toyota Stadium
Dallas
Toyota Stadium
DallasFCD
Score Summary
HoustonHOU
L. Farrington (6')
Soccer ball icon
L. Farrington (14')
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E. Sviatchenko (o.g.) (54')
Soccer ball icon
P. Musa (86')
Soccer ball icon
Guilherme (29')
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E. Sviatchenko (31')
Soccer ball icon
L. Ennali (33')
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E. Sviatchenko (68')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Dallas
    96.9%
  • Draw
    3.1%
  • Houston
    0.1%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for FC Dallas: S. Ibeagha replaces L. Farrington
  2. 86'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for FC Dallas by P. Musa, assisted by J. Valiente
    3-4
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Bouzat replaces H. Herrera
  4. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for FC Dallas: R. Binyamin replaces Kaick
  5. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Resch replaces L. Ennali
  6. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for FC Dallas: P. Delgado replaces N. Norris
  7. 68'
    Red Card
    E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) sent off for a second yellow card
  8. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: O. Lingr replaces E. Ponce
  9. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: I. Aliyu replaces D. Holmes
  10. 57'
    Yellow Card
    Kaick (FC Dallas) cautioned
  11. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for FC Dallas by E. Sviatchenko (o.g.)
    3-3
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for FC Dallas: P. Musa replaces C. Cappis
  13. 46'
    Yellow Card
    D. Holmes (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  14. 45'
    Yellow Card
    E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  15. 38'
    Yellow Card
    E. Ponce (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  16. 33'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by L. Ennali, assisted by Guilherme
    3-2
  17. 31'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by E. Sviatchenko, assisted by Guilherme
    2-2
  18. 29'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by Guilherme
    1-2
  19. 20'
    Yellow Card
    O. Urhoghide (FC Dallas) cautioned
  20. 14'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington
    0-2
  21. 6'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for FC Dallas by L. Farrington
    0-1

Houston vs. Dallas: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Houston vs. Dallas
  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Toyota Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Houston +180, Dallas +145, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-141/+120)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Houston: 27.9%
  • Dallas: 47.9%
  • Draw: 24.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Houston 1-1 Dallas (11.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Houston vs. Dallas? Prediction & correct score

Dallas is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.9%.

The most likely correct score is Houston 1-1 Dallas.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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