Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid La Liga match on December 3, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Real Madrid
3
0
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic BilbaoBIL
Score Summary
Real MadridRMA
K. Mbappe (7')
Soccer ball icon
E. Camavinga (42')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (59')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Athletic Bilbao
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: G. Garcia replaces Eder Militao
  2. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: Rodrygo replaces K. Mbappe
  3. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces Vinicius Junior
  4. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: S. Sanchez replaces N. Williams
  5. 76'
    Yellow Card
    A. Rego (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  6. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: N. Serrano replaces A. Berenguer
  7. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: M. Vesga replaces M. Jauregizar
  8. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Guler replaces E. Camavinga
  9. 66'
    Yellow Card
    A. Berenguer (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  10. 59'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by A. Carreras
    3-0
  11. 55'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: R. Asencio replaces T. Alexander-Arnold
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: J. Areso replaces I. Lekue
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: U. Gomez replaces I. Ruiz de Galarreta
  14. 42'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by E. Camavinga, assisted by K. Mbappe
    2-0
  15. 7'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by T. Alexander-Arnold
    1-0

Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid
  • Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Athletic Bilbao +370, Real Madrid -120, draw +310
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Athletic Bilbao: 26.1%
  • Real Madrid: 48.9%
  • Draw: 25.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Madrid (11.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 48.9%.

The most likely correct score is Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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