Burnley vs. Brighton Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Burnley vs. Brighton Premier League match on April 11, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Brighton
2
0
Turf Moor
Burnley
Turf Moor
BurnleyBUR
Score Summary
BrightonBHA
M. Wieffer (43')
Soccer ball icon
M. Wieffer (89')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Burnley
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Brighton
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 89'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Brighton by M. Wieffer, assisted by Y. Ayari
    2-0
  2. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: J. Veltman replaces D. Gomez
  3. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces Florentino
  4. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces Q. Hartman
  5. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: K. Walker replaces B. Humphreys
  6. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: K. Mitoma replaces Y. Minteh
  7. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: G. Rutter replaces D. Welbeck
  8. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: C. Baleba replaces J. Hinshelwood
  9. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: M. Tresor Ndayishimiye replaces M. Edwards
  10. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen replaces L. Ugochukwu
  11. 60'
    Yellow Card
    Florentino (Burnley) cautioned
  12. 50'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  13. 48'
    Yellow Card
    J. P. van Hecke (Brighton) cautioned
  14. 43'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Brighton by M. Wieffer, assisted by P. Gross
    1-0
  15. 30'
    Yellow Card
    M. Esteve (Burnley) cautioned
  16. 7'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside

Burnley vs. Brighton: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Burnley vs. Brighton
  • Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Turf Moor

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Burnley +450, Brighton -165, draw +325
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-145/+120)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Burnley: 20.8%
  • Brighton: 57.1%
  • Draw: 22.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Burnley 1-1 Brighton (10.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Burnley vs. Brighton? Prediction & correct score

Brighton is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 57.1%.

The most likely correct score is Burnley 1-1 Brighton.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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