Newcastle vs. Manchester United Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Newcastle vs. Manchester United Premier League match on March 4, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Manchester United
1
2
Newcastle
NewcastleNEW
Score Summary
Manchester UnitedMNU
J. Ramsey (45')
Red Card icon
A. Gordon (pen.) (45')
Soccer ball icon
W. Osula (90')
Soccer ball icon
Casemiro (45')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Newcastle
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Manchester United
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by W. Osula, assisted by K. Trippier
    1-2
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: S. Botman replaces S. Tonali
  3. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: W. Osula replaces A. Gordon
  4. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: T. Malacia replaces N. Mazraoui
  5. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: J. Murphy replaces A. Elanga
  6. 80'
    Yellow Card
    K. Trippier (Newcastle) cautioned
  7. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: J. Zirkzee replaces B. Mbeumo
  8. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: A. Diallo replaces K. Mainoo
  9. 64'
    Yellow Card
    N. Mazraoui (Manchester Utd) cautioned
  10. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: M. Ugarte replaces L. Shaw
  11. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: D. Dalot replaces Casemiro
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: J. Willock replaces H. Barnes
  13. 45'
    Red Card
    J. Ramsey (Newcastle) sent off for a second yellow card
  14. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by A. Gordon (pen.)
    0-1
  15. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Manchester Utd by Casemiro, assisted by B. Fernandes
    1-1
  16. 39'
    Yellow Card
    L. Shaw (Manchester Utd) cautioned
  17. 38'
    Yellow Card
    Joelinton (Newcastle) cautioned
  18. 37'
    Yellow Card
    B. Mbeumo (Manchester Utd) cautioned
  19. 26'
    Yellow Card
    J. Ramsey (Newcastle) cautioned

Newcastle vs. Manchester United: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Newcastle vs. Manchester United
  • Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
  • Time: 3:15 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Newcastle +165, Manchester United +155, draw +270
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-170/+130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Newcastle: 38.6%
  • Manchester United: 37.4%
  • Draw: 23.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Newcastle 1-1 Manchester United (10.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Newcastle vs. Manchester United? Prediction & correct score

Newcastle is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 38.6%.

The most likely correct score is Newcastle 1-1 Manchester United.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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