Leeds vs. Manchester City Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Leeds vs. Manchester City Premier League match on February 28, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Manchester City
1
0
Elland Road
Leeds
Elland Road
LeedsLU
Score Summary
Manchester CityMNC
D. Farke (90')
Red Card icon
A. Semenyo (45')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Leeds
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Manchester City
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    R. Ait-Nouri (Manchester City) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Savinho (Manchester City) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Red Card
    D. Farke (Leeds) sent off with a straight red card
  4. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: N. Ake replaces R. Cherki
  5. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: J. Piroe replaces J. Justin
  6. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: J. Bijol replaces J. Rodon
  7. 85'
    Yellow Card
    G. Donnarumma (Manchester City) cautioned
  8. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces J. Bogle
  9. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: W. Gnonto replaces I. Gruev
  10. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: T. Reijnders replaces N. O'Reilly
  11. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: Savinho replaces O. Marmoush
  12. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces B. Aaronson
  13. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Manchester City by A. Semenyo, assisted by R. Ait-Nouri
    1-0

Leeds vs. Manchester City: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Leeds vs. Manchester City
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Elland Road

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Leeds +400, Manchester City -135, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-124/+105)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Leeds: 20.4%
  • Manchester City: 57.2%
  • Draw: 22.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Leeds 1-1 Manchester City (10.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Leeds vs. Manchester City? Prediction & correct score

Manchester City is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 57.2%.

The most likely correct score is Leeds 1-1 Manchester City.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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