Chelsea vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Chelsea vs. Burnley Premier League match on February 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Burnley
1
:
1
Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
Stamford Bridge
ChelseaCFC
Score Summary
BurnleyBUR
Joao Pedro (4')
Soccer ball icon
W. Fofana (72')
Red Card icon
Z. Flemming (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Chelsea
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Burnley
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    R. Sanchez (Chelsea) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by Z. Flemming, assisted by J. Ward-Prowse
    1-1
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Hato (Chelsea) cautioned
  4. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Laurent (Burnley) cautioned
  5. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: M. Sarr replaces P. Neto
  6. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: J. Acheampong replaces R. James
  7. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: L. Tchaouna replaces B. Humphreys
  8. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: A. Barnes replaces J. Anthony
  9. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: J. Hato replaces M. Gusto
  10. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: L. Delap replaces Joao Pedro
  11. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen replaces J. Laurent
  12. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: T. Adarabioyo replaces C. Palmer
  13. 72'
    Red Card
    W. Fofana (Chelsea) sent off for a second yellow card
  14. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Ward-Prowse replaces L. Ugochukwu
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces K. Walker
  16. 34'
    Yellow Card
    W. Fofana (Chelsea) cautioned
  17. 30'
    Yellow Card
    H. Mejbri (Burnley) cautioned
  18. 4'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chelsea by Joao Pedro, assisted by P. Neto
    0-1

Chelsea vs. Burnley: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Chelsea vs. Burnley
  • Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Stamford Bridge

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Chelsea -425, Burnley +1400, draw +600

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Chelsea: 76.8%
  • Burnley: 8.6%
  • Draw: 14.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Chelsea 2-0 Burnley (11.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Chelsea vs. Burnley? Prediction & correct score

Chelsea is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 76.8%.

The most likely correct score is Chelsea 2-0 Burnley.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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