Newcastle vs. Leeds Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Newcastle vs. Leeds Premier League match on January 7, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Leeds
3
4
Newcastle
NewcastleNEW
Score Summary
LeedsLU
H. Barnes (36')
Soccer ball icon
Joelinton (54')
Soccer ball icon
Bruno Guimaraes (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
H. Barnes (90')
Soccer ball icon
B. Aaronson (32')
Soccer ball icon
D. Calvert-Lewin (pen.) (45')
Soccer ball icon
B. Aaronson (79')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Newcastle
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Leeds
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by Bruno Guimaraes (pen.)
    3-3
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: A. Tanaka replaces I. Gruev
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: W. Gnonto replaces B. Aaronson
  4. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: S. Bornauw replaces J. Rodon
  5. 90'
    Yellow Card
    E. Ampadu (Leeds) cautioned
  6. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by H. Barnes, assisted by S. Botman
    3-4
  7. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces D. Calvert-Lewin
  8. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: A. Murphy replaces A. Gordon
  9. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: N. Okafor replaces A. Stach
  10. 79'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by B. Aaronson, assisted by I. Gruev
    3-2
  11. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: J. Ramsey replaces F. Schar
  12. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: Y. Wissa replaces N. Woltemade
  13. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by Joelinton, assisted by Bruno Guimaraes
    2-2
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: S. Botman replaces M. Thiaw
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: V. Livramento replaces S. Tonali
  16. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Gordon (Newcastle) cautioned
  17. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by D. Calvert-Lewin (pen.)
    2-1
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    Joelinton (Newcastle) cautioned
  19. 36'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by H. Barnes, assisted by N. Woltemade
    1-1
  20. 32'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by B. Aaronson, assisted by D. Calvert-Lewin
    1-0
  21. 22'
    Yellow Card
    D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) cautioned
  22. 7'
    Yellow Card
    M. Thiaw (Newcastle) cautioned

Newcastle vs. Leeds: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Newcastle vs. Leeds
  • Date: Wednesday, January 7, 2026
  • Time: 3:15 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Newcastle -150, Leeds +460, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/+104)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Newcastle: 57.6%
  • Leeds: 19.9%
  • Draw: 22.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Newcastle 1-0 Leeds (10.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Newcastle vs. Leeds? Prediction & correct score

Newcastle is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 57.6%.

The most likely correct score is Newcastle 1-0 Leeds.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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