Newcastle vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Newcastle vs. Burnley Premier League match on December 6, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Burnley
1
2
Newcastle
NewcastleNEW
Score Summary
BurnleyBUR
Bruno Guimaraes (31')
Soccer ball icon
A. Gordon (pen.) (45')
Soccer ball icon
Lucas Pires (43')
Red Card icon
Z. Flemming (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Newcastle
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Burnley
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by Z. Flemming (pen.)
    1-2
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: S. Tonali replaces J. Ramsey
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: M. Edwards replaces H. Ekdal
  4. 89'
    Yellow Card
    J. Laurent (Burnley) cautioned
  5. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Z. Flemming replaces A. Broja
  6. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Anthony replaces J. Bruun Larsen
  7. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: Y. Wissa replaces N. Woltemade
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: Joelinton replaces A. Gordon
  9. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Laurent replaces Florentino
  10. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: L. Hall replaces D. Burn
  11. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: L. Miley replaces J. Willock
  12. 52'
    Yellow Card
    V. Livramento (Newcastle) cautioned
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Worrall replaces L. Foster
  14. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by A. Gordon (pen.)
    0-2
  15. 43'
    Red Card
    Lucas Pires (Burnley) sent off with a straight red card
  16. 35'
    Yellow Card
    K. Walker (Burnley) cautioned
  17. 31'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by Bruno Guimaraes
    0-1

Newcastle vs. Burnley: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Newcastle vs. Burnley
  • Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
  • Time: 10:00 AM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Newcastle -300, Burnley +950, draw +480
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-167/+144)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Newcastle: 71.3%
  • Burnley: 11.3%
  • Draw: 17.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Newcastle 2-0 Burnley (12.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Newcastle vs. Burnley? Prediction & correct score

Newcastle is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 71.3%.

The most likely correct score is Newcastle 2-0 Burnley.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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