Poland vs. Sweden Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Poland vs. Sweden prediction for the World Cup qualifying play-off match on March 31, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets.
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WORLD CUP
Poland
2
3
Strawberry Arena
Sweden
Strawberry Arena
SwedenSWE
Score Summary
PolandPOL
A. Elanga (19')
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G. Lagerbielke (44')
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V. Gyokeres (88')
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N. Zalewski (33')
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K. Swiderski (55')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Sweden
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Poland
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Poland: K. Grosicki replaces M. Cash
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: M. Svanberg replaces Y. Ayari
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Poland: K. Piatek replaces N. Zalewski
  4. 90'
    Yellow Card
    K. Piatek (Poland) cautioned
  5. 88'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sweden by V. Gyokeres
    2-3
  6. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: G. Lundgren replaces B. Nygren
  7. 76'
    Yellow Card
    L. Bergvall (Sweden) cautioned
  8. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: B. Zeneli replaces J. Karlstrom
  9. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: L. Bergvall replaces A. Elanga
  10. 65'
    Yellow Card
    O. Pietuszewski (Poland) cautioned
  11. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Poland: O. Pietuszewski replaces K. Swiderski
  12. 62'
    Yellow Card
    J. Karlstrom (Sweden) cautioned
  13. 55'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Poland by K. Swiderski, assisted by N. Zalewski
    2-2
  14. 44'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sweden by G. Lagerbielke, assisted by B. Nygren
    1-2
  15. 43'
    Yellow Card
    J. Kiwior (Poland) cautioned
  16. 33'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Poland by N. Zalewski, assisted by P. Zielinski
    1-1
  17. 19'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sweden by A. Elanga, assisted by Y. Ayari
    0-1

Poland vs. Sweden: Match prediction & analysis

Dimers' Poland vs. Sweden prediction is powered by a soccer ratings framework applied consistently across every match. We evaluate team strength, recent performance, player involvement, and underlying data signals to deliver clear, data-driven insights.

Match overview

  • Teams: Poland vs. Sweden
  • Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
  • Time: 2:45 PM ET
  • Venue: Strawberry Arena
  • Tournament: FIFA World Cup qualifying play-offs

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Poland +300, Sweden +105, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+126/-150)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Poland: 25.7%
  • Sweden: 49.5%
  • Draw: 24.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' World Cup data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Poland 1-1 Sweden (11.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Who will win Poland vs. Sweden? Prediction & correct score

Sweden is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 49.5%.

The most likely correct score is Poland 1-1 Sweden.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Get Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

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