Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's Carreno Busta-Auger-Aliassime men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Auger-Aliassime a 75% chance of defeating Carreno Busta at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Felix Auger-Aliassime -340, Pablo Carreno Busta +280

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Carreno Busta @ +280 via DraftKings
• First Set: Auger-Aliassime @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Felix Auger-Aliassime is scheduled to begin on Monday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
• Date: Monday, October 12, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Felix Auger-Aliassime, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.