Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina will lock horns in the fourth round of the US Open 2026 on Monday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Elena Rybakina as the most likely winner in this Osaka vs. Rybakina prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Osaka vs. Rybakina prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Osaka-Rybakina women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Rybakina a 56% chance of defeating Osaka in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Rybakina has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Rybakina (-0.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Elena Rybakina -138, Naomi Osaka +118
• First Set: Osaka +110, Rybakina -139

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Osaka @ +118 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rybakina @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Naomi Osaka to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina is scheduled to begin on Monday at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina
• Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Elena Rybakina, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Naomi Osaka at the US Open 2026.

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