Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov are scheduled to meet in the semifinals of the US Open 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Alexander Zverev as the most likely winner in this Zverev vs. Khachanov prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Zverev vs. Khachanov prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Zverev-Khachanov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Zverev an 81% chance of beating Khachanov in the US Open 2026. Additionally, Zverev has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Zverev (-5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 65% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Karen Khachanov +360, Alexander Zverev -450
• First Set: Zverev -250, Khachanov +200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Zverev @ -450 via DraftKings
• First Set: Khachanov @ -133 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexander Zverev to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov is scheduled to commence on Friday at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Alexander Zverev, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat Karen Khachanov at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.