Alex de Minaur vs. Karen Khachanov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's de Minaur-Khachanov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives de Minaur a 52% chance of defeating Khachanov at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, de Minaur has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show de Minaur (+0.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Karen Khachanov +100, Alex de Minaur -120
• First Set: de Minaur -125, Khachanov +100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Khachanov @ +100 via DraftKings
• First Set: Khachanov @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Karen Khachanov to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov is scheduled to start on Tuesday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Karen Khachanov
• Date: Tuesday, October 13, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Karen Khachanov at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.