Adrian Mannarino vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Almaty Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's Mannarino-Rublev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Rublev a 76% chance of winning against Mannarino at the ATP Almaty Open tournament. Additionally, Rublev has a 71% chance of winning the first set, while the under 22.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Andrey Rublev -455, Adrian Mannarino +380
• First Set: Mannarino +240, Rublev -303

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Mannarino @ +380 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rublev @ -150 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Adrian Mannarino to win.

Although Mannarino is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Almaty Open match between Adrian Mannarino and Andrey Rublev is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 2:30 AM ET.

• Who: Adrian Mannarino vs. Andrey Rublev
• Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:30 AM ET/11:30 PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Andrey Rublev, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Adrian Mannarino at the ATP Almaty Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.