Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Sabres NHL game on May 6, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Canadiens
2
4
KeyBank Center
Sabres
KeyBank Center
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 0 2
Sabres
2 2 0 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Canadiens
    0%
  • Sabres
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 0 2
Sabres
2 2 0 4
P3 19:59 Mike Matheson shot blocked by Tage Thompson
P3 19:27 Noah Dobson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
P3 19:10 Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
P3 19:03 Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 17:55 Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Alex Lyon
P3 17:51 Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Alex Lyon
P3 17:39 Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Alex Lyon
P3 16:59 Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Alex Lyon
P3 16:15 Mike Matheson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
P3 15:42 Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 14:22 Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Alex Lyon
P3 14:05 Shot missed by Tyson Kozak
P3 13:08 Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Conor Timmins
P3 11:57 Josh Doan shot blocked by Noah Dobson
P3 10:03 Shot missed by Jack Quinn
P3 08:49 Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 06:42 Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P3 05:58 Logan Stanley shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 05:09 Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
P3 05:05 Shot on goal by Alex Newhook saved by Alex Lyon
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:59
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Tage Thompson
  3. P3 19:43
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  4. P3 19:27
    SHOT
    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
  5. P3 19:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  6. P3 19:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  7. P3 18:29
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  8. P3 17:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Alex Lyon
  9. P3 17:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Alex Lyon
  10. P3 17:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  11. P3 17:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Alex Lyon
  12. P3 17:13
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  13. P3 16:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Alex Lyon
  14. P3 16:15
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
  15. P3 15:42
    SHOT
    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  16. P3 14:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Alex Lyon
  17. P3 14:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tyson Kozak
  18. P3 13:46
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  19. P3 13:08
    SHOT
    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Conor Timmins
  20. P3 11:57
    SHOT
    Josh Doan shot blocked by Noah Dobson
  21. P3 10:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  22. P3 09:02
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  23. P3 08:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kirby Dach
  24. P3 07:38
    Jordan Greenway won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
  25. P3 07:30
    Juraj Slafkovský credited with hit on Rasmus Dahlin in offensive zone
  26. P3 06:52
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in offensive zone
  27. P3 06:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  28. P3 06:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  29. P3 06:02
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  30. P3 05:58
    SHOT
    Logan Stanley shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  31. P3 05:56
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Kirby Dach in offensive zone
  32. P3 05:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
  33. P3 05:07
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
  34. P3 05:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Newhook saved by Alex Lyon
  35. P3 04:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Alex Lyon
  36. P3 03:40
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  37. P3 03:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  38. P3 02:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  39. P3 01:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Newhook saved by Alex Lyon
  40. P3 00:40
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  41. P3 00:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Alex Lyon
  42. P3 00:09
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  43. P3 00:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Alex Lyon
  44. P3 00:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  45. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  46. P2 19:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Suzuki
  47. P2 19:23
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Owen Power
  48. P2 19:07
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by teammate
  49. P2 17:11
    Nick Suzuki credited with hit on Jason Zucker in defensive zone
  50. P2 17:06
    Giveaway by Mike Matheson in defensive zone
  51. P2 16:31
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  52. P2 15:56
    Joseph Veleno won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
  53. P2 15:51
    Joseph Veleno won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
  54. P2 15:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  55. P2 15:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Joseph Veleno saved by Alex Lyon
  56. P2 14:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Jakub Dobes
  57. P2 14:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
  58. P2 13:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Jakub Dobes
  59. P2 12:59
    SHOT
    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  60. P2 12:12
    Giveaway by Peyton Krebs in neutral zone
  61. P2 11:53
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  62. P2 11:06
    Shorthanded - Josh Norris won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  63. P2 11:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Alex Lyon
  64. P2 10:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  65. P2 09:11
    Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  66. P2 09:01
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  67. P2 09:00
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Bowen Byram
    1-4
  68. P2 08:41
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Alexandre Carrier in defensive zone
  69. P2 08:11
    Power play - Giveaway by Jason Zucker in offensive zone
  70. P2 07:39
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
  71. P2 07:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  72. P2 07:13
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  73. P2 07:06
    SHOT
    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  74. P2 06:45
    SHOT
    Logan Stanley shot blocked by Alexandre Texier
  75. P2 06:02
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  76. P2 05:42
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Jason Zucker in neutral zone
  77. P2 04:08
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Josh Doan
  78. P2 04:05
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  79. P2 03:59
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in offensive zone
  80. P2 03:48
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in neutral zone
  81. P2 03:32
    Alexandre Texier won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in neutral zone
  82. P2 02:25
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  83. P2 01:57
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Jake Evans in defensive zone
  84. P2 01:24
    Cole Caufield credited with hit on Bowen Byram in offensive zone
  85. P2 00:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Jakub Dobes
  86. P2 00:00
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  87. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  88. P1 19:26
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  89. P1 19:16
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
  90. P1 18:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  91. P1 18:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Lane Hutson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
  92. P1 17:58
    Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  93. P1 17:09
    SHOT
    Bowen Byram shot blocked by Jake Evans
  94. P1 16:49
    Alex Newhook won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  95. P1 16:49
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  96. P1 16:16
    Giveaway by Josh Doan in neutral zone
  97. P1 14:58
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  98. P1 14:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Jakub Dobes
  99. P1 14:13
    SHOT
    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
  100. P1 13:26
    Jordan Greenway won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
  101. P1 13:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Josh Doan shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  102. P1 11:38
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Alex Newhook saved by Alex Lyon
  103. P1 11:35
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  104. P1 10:48
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  105. P1 10:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  106. P1 10:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Alex Lyon
  107. P1 10:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Jakub Dobes
  108. P1 09:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Alex Lyon
  109. P1 08:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Phillip Danault saved by Alex Lyon
  110. P1 08:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
  111. P1 05:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alexandre Texier
  112. P1 05:33
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in offensive zone
  113. P1 05:33
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  114. P1 05:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  115. P1 04:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Alex Lyon
  116. P1 04:31
    Canadiens won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  117. P1 04:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Josh Doan
  118. P1 04:21
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  119. P1 04:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Alex Lyon
  120. P1 03:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Greenway
  121. P1 02:23
    Shorthanded - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Alex Tuch in defensive zone
  122. P1 02:00
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Kaiden Guhle in defensive zone
  123. P1 01:26
    Power play - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
  124. P1 01:11
    Power play - Giveaway by Alex Tuch in offensive zone
  125. P1 00:57
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  126. P1 00:30
    Penalty to Lane Hutson 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Zach Benson)
  127. P1 00:00
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Sabres
28Shots on Goal16
63% Faceoff Win % 37%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
31Hits27
13 Shots Blocked 12
7Giveaways15
CanadiensMTL
SabresBUF
28Shots on Goal16
63% Faceoff Win % 37%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
31Hits27
13 Shots Blocked 12
7Giveaways15

Canadiens vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Sabres
  • Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Sabres favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens 44¢, Sabres 56¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 44%
  • Sabres: 56%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 44%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 56%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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