As England face Norway in the World Cup semifinal, Polymarket and Kalshi promo code "DIMERS" extends $50 + $10 bonuses into the match

Norway and England meet in the 2026 World Cup semifinal on Saturday July 11 at 5:00 PM EDT, and both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing this as the most open semifinal contest of the tournament so far. On Polymarket, England hold a 52% regulation time win probability with a draw at 27% and Norway at 23% — making the combined "England do not win in regulation" probability a full 50%. The team-to-advance market provides more clarity: England at 66¢ and Norway at 35¢. On Kalshi, England advance at 63% against Norway's 37%. With over $2.6 million in trading volume already registered on Kalshi alone, this is the most liquid semifinal market of the tournament. Traders on both platforms can access sign-up bonuses using promo code DIMERS: deposit $20 on Polymarket and receive $50 in trading funds, or trade $10 on Kalshi and receive a $10 bonus.

Live Polymarket Odds: Norway vs England

The embed below shows live, real-time Polymarket odds for the Norway vs England semifinal. Prices update continuously as the market develops ahead of Saturday's kickoff.

The Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Are Saying

The two platforms are closely aligned on the overall picture — England as meaningful but not dominant favorites — and the prop suite on Kalshi builds a highly specific view of how traders expect this match to play out.

Figures current as of July 7, 2026. Match kicks off Saturday July 11 at 5:00 PM EDT. See embed above for updated live Polymarket odds.

Where the Interesting Positions Are

The prop suite across both Polymarket and Kalshi is producing a strikingly coherent picture — one that reflects genuine respect for Norway's ability to compete with and score against top-tier opposition:

• Norway over 0.5 goals at 71% on Kalshi: This is the standout number in the entire market. Norway are the underdogs, yet traders believe they score in this match nearly three times out of four. That 71% figure is higher than Norway's equivalent prop in their Round of 16 match against Brazil — reflecting how far Norway have come and how much confidence the market has in their ability to get on the scoresheet even against England's organized defensive structure.
• England -1.5 spread at 28%: Despite being 63% favorites to advance, a multi-goal English margin in regulation is priced as a roughly one-in-four outcome. The gap between 63% (advance) and 28% (comfortable margin) is one of the widest of any semifinal match — and it speaks directly to the Norwegian threat going the other way. England are expected to win, but not to dominate.
• Draw at 27% on Polymarket: The second-highest draw probability of any match in this entire knockout stage. Norway's tournament run has repeatedly featured draws and tight margins that required extra time or penalties to resolve. Traders are not discounting that pattern heading into this semifinal.
• Over 2.5 goals at 56% on Kalshi: Slightly favored, which — combined with Norway over 0.5 at 71% and England over 1.5 at 54% — suggests traders expect a genuinely open, attacking game rather than the kind of defensive grinding seen in some of the earlier knockout round matches. A 2-1 England win in regulation or extra time is arguably the single most internally consistent result across these numbers.
• England over 1.5 goals at 54%: A marginal lean toward England scoring twice or more. For England to advance comfortably, they need their attack to click — and the market gives that a coin-flip probability, not certainty. Combined with Norway's 71% chance of scoring, traders are pricing a competitive, end-to-end semifinal.

For broader World Cup coverage and how the full bracket markets are developing on both platforms as the semifinals approach, the Dimers prediction market insights hub is updated after every match. For a primer on how prediction markets process knockout round football, the Dimers guide covers the mechanics in detail.

Promo Code DIMERS: Active on Polymarket and Kalshi

Enter DIMERS at registration on either platform. The code cannot be applied to an existing account. The Polymarket promo code DIMERS has been verified through July 2026 and unlocks $50 in trading funds when you sign up and deposit $20. Full details on the Polymarket offer are available on the Dimers Polymarket promo code page. To trade Norway vs England on Kalshi with promo code DIMERS, sign up here.

Ready to trade the match? Create your Polymarket account here and use code DIMERS to claim your welcome offer.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Polymarket's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only.

Kalshi: Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.